As the global severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic expands, genomic epidemiology and whole genome sequencing are being used to investigate its transmission and evolution. Against the backdrop of the global emergence of “variants of concern” (VOCs) during December 2020 and an upsurge in a state in the western part of India since January 2021, whole genome sequencing and analysis of spike protein mutations using sequence and structural approaches were undertaken to identify possible new variants and gauge the fitness of the current circulating strains. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that newly identified lineages B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.2 were predominantly circulating. The signature mutations possessed by these strains were L452R, T478K, E484Q, D614G and P681R in the spike protein, including within the receptor-binding domain (RBD). Of these, the mutations at residue positions 452, 484 and 681 have been reported in other globally circulating lineages. The structural analysis of RBD mutations L452R, T478K and E484Q revealed that these may possibly result in increased ACE2 binding while P681R in the furin cleavage site could increase the rate of S1-S2 cleavage, resulting in better transmissibility. The two RBD mutations, L452R and E484Q, indicated decreased binding to select monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and may affect their neutralization potential. Further in vitro/in vivo studies would help confirm the phenotypic changes of the mutant strains. Overall, the study revealed that the newly emerged variants were responsible for the second wave of COVID-19 in Maharashtra. Lineage B.1.617.2 has been designated as a VOC delta and B.1.617.1 as a variant of interest kappa, and they are being widely reported in the rest of the country as well as globally. Continuous monitoring of these and emerging variants in India is essential.

Pragya D Yadav, Ph.D, Gajanan N Sapkal, Ph.D, Priya Abraham, M.D, Ph.D, Raches Ella, M.S, Gururaj Deshpande, Ph.D, Deepak Y Patil, Ph.D, Dimpal A Nyayanit, Ph.D

Background & objectives: Population-based seroepidemiological studies measure the extent of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a country. We report the findings of the first round of a national serosurvey, conducted to estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among adult population of India. Methods: From May 11 to June 4, 2020, a randomly sampled, community-based survey was conducted in 700 villages/wards, selected from the 70 districts of the 21 States of India, categorized into four strata based on the incidence of reported COVID-19 cases. Four hundred adults per district were enrolled from 10 clusters with one adult per household. Serum samples were tested for IgG antibodies using COVID Kavach ELISA kit. All positive serum samples were re-tested using Euroimmun SARS-CoV-2 ELISA. Adjusting for survey design and serial test performance, weighted seroprevalence, number of infections, infection to case ratio (ICR) and infection fatality ratio (IFR) were calculated. Logistic regression was used to determine the factors associated with IgG positivity. Results: Total of 30,283 households were visited and 28,000 individuals were enrolled. Population-weighted seroprevalence after adjusting for test performance was 0.73 per cent [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.34-1.13]. Males, living in urban slums and occupation with high risk of exposure to potentially infected persons were associated with seropositivity. A cumulative 6,468,388 adult infections (95% CI: 3,829,029-11,199,423) were estimated in India by the early May. The overall ICR was between 81.6 (95% CI: 48.3-141.4) and 130.1 (95% CI: 77.0-225.2) with May 11 and May 3, 2020 as plausible reference points for reported cases. The IFR in the surveyed districts from high stratum, where death reporting was more robust, was 11.72 (95% CI: 7.21-19.19) to 15.04 (9.26-24.62) per 10,000 adults, using May 24 and June 1, 2020 as plausible reference points for reported deaths. Interpretation & conclusions: Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was low among the adult population in India around the beginning of May 2020. Further national and local serosurveys are recommended to better inform the public health strategy for containment and mitigation of the epidemic in various parts of the country.