Mangroves are one of the world’s most threatened ecosystems, and Myanmar is regarded as the current mangrove deforestation hotspot globally. Here, we use multi-sensor satellite data and Intensity Analysis to quantify and explain patterns of net and gross mangrove cover change (loss, gain, persistence) for the 1996–2016 period across all of Myanmar. Net national mangrove cover declined by 52% over 20 years, with annual net loss rates of 3.60%–3.87%. Gross mangrove deforestation was more profound: 63% of the 1996 mangrove extent had been temporarily or permanently converted by 2016. Rice, oil palm, and rubber expansion accounted for most conversion; however, our analysis revealed targeted systematic transitions of mangroves to water (presumably aquaculture) and built-up areas indicated emerging threats for mangroves from those land uses. Restoration programmes facilitated mangrove gains and represent a critical area for investment alongside protection. This study demonstrates the importance of multi-sensor satellite data for national-level mangrove change assessments, along with gross land cover transition analyses to assess landscape dynamics as well as prioritise threats and interventions in an effort to develop holistic strategies that aim to conserve important habitats.

As deforestation breaches into new tropical frontiers, proactive conservation strategies require a trifecta of information on where deforestation is accelerating (emergent), how drivers of deforestation vary spatiotemporally, and where to focus limited conservation resources in protecting the most integral yet threatened forested landscapes. Here we introduce Emergent Threat Analysis, a process integrating Emerging Hot Spot Analysis of deforestation, visual classification of deforestation outcomes over time, and spatial quantification of contemporary forest condition. We applied Emergent Threat Analysis to tropical Southeast Asia, a global epicentre of biodiversity threatened by deforestation. We found that emergent hot spots (EHS)—a subset of hot spots characterized by strong, recent, and clustered patterns of deforestation—accounted for 26.1% of total forest loss from 1992 to 2018, with deforestation within EHS proceeding at 2.5 times the regional rate of gross loss. Oil palm and rubber plantation expansion were the principal drivers of deforestation within EHS of insular and mainland SE Asia, respectively. Over the study period, oil palm shifted in importance from Sumatra and Sarawak to Papua and Kalimantan, whereas rubber became prominent in Cambodia and Tanintharyi from 2006 to 2015. As of 2019, more than 170 000 km² of SE Asia’s remaining forest occurred within EHS, of which 21.7% was protected. High and medium-integrity forest constituted 19.2% and 49.1% of remaining EHS forest, respectively, but of these, 35.0% of high-integrity and 23.9% of medium-integrity EHS forest were protected. Because we anticipate that tree plantation expansion will continue to drive deforestation in SE Asia, significantly heightened protection is needed to secure the long-term preservation of high and medium-integrity forest, especially in highly contested forest frontier regions. Finally, as a flexible, integrated process, Emergent Threat Analysis is applicable to deforestation fronts across the global tropics.

Regime shifts—rapid long-term transitions between stable states—are well documented in ecology but remain controversial and understudied in land use and land cover change (LUCC). In particular, uncertainty surrounds the prevalence and causes of regime shifts at the landscape level. We studied LUCC dynamics in the Tanintharyi Region (Myanmar), which contains one of the last remaining significant contiguous forest areas in Southeast Asia but was heavily deforested between 1992–2015. By combining remote sensing methods and a literature review of historical processes leading to LUCC, we identified a regime shift from a forest-oriented state to an agricultural-oriented state between 1997–2004. The regime shift was triggered by a confluence of complex political and economic conditions within Myanmar, notably the ceasefires between various ethnic groups and the military government, coupled with its enhanced business relations with Thailand and China. Government policies and foreign direct investment enabling the establishment of large-scale agro-industrial concessions reinforced the new agriculture-oriented regime and prevented reversion to the original forest-dominated regime. Our approach of integrating complementary analytical frameworks to identify and understand land-cover regime shifts can help policymakers to preempt future regime shifts in Tanintharyi, and can be applied to the study of land change in other regions.

Many regions of the Himalaya are experiencing forest expansion, signifying a widespread forest transition across this fragile mountain system. In the Nepal Himalaya, forest expansion is increasingly attributed to the narrative of cropland abandonment driven by rural outmigration. Understanding forest change dynamics as consequences of land use changes is critical in the context of rural mountain societies such as Nepal, which exhibit complex interactions between forest, agriculture, and livelihoods. We analysed forest gain in Nepal from 2000–2019 to inquire where and when forests have expanded and what land covers transitioned into forests. We integrated spatiotemporal analysis of national land cover maps and photointerpretation of very high resolution (VHR) imagery to improve analytical estimates. The Middle Mountain physiographic region experienced the strongest hot spots of forest gains relative to the high mountains or lowlands. Visual interpretation of VHR showed that 68.8% of forest gains since 2000 occurred on shrubland, and 26.5% on cropland. The dominance of shrubland-forest transitions implied that shrubland is an intermediate stage in a multi-decadal succession process, or a semi-permanent state such as arrested succession. Notably however, we also detected cropland-forest transitions occurring as fast as 6–10 years, indicating the potential for rapid forest succession if biophysical conditions permit. Thus, variations in land cover transitions to forests in the hills implicated multiple pathways of forest regeneration, reflecting a variety of spatiotemporally explicit drivers. Our results differ from previous studies because VHR image analysis accounted for land cover classification errors and improved land cover quantification. Further research on spatially explicit mechanisms and drivers of forest gain are needed to understand the synergies of forest, agriculture, and livelihoods to inform land use land cover policies that could be leveraged to enhance rural mountain livelihoods.

Cambodia is beset by high deforestation rates and fire frequencies. From 2001 to 2020, forest cover declined by 34%, and cropland and rubber expanded by 31 401 km² and 4530 km², respectively; meanwhile nearly 8.7 million fires burned 41.6% of the land. Fires may be associated with deliberate land change, stable land management systems, and unplanned forest degradation. We integrated annual land cover and monthly burned area data from 2001–2020 to test three hypotheses. First, if fire is used during land conversion, there would be a detectable pulse in fire activity in the year immediately prior to, and the year of land cover change. Our temporal analysis found statistically elevated burn rates in five of 16 transition tests, however, they were typically <1% outside the predicted range, indicating no practical significance in the association of fire with land cover change. Second, fire prevalence would be lower in land managed for conservation or agricultural production than unclassified or unmanaged land. Persistent forest and shrubland burned at significantly higher rates than expected, cropland burned significantly less, burning was almost absent from rubber plantations, and forests in protected areas exhibited lower total burn percentages than unclassified land or industrial economic land concessions (ELCs), thus supporting the fire-land management hypothesis. However, percent burned area in ELCs was greater than unclassified land for several persistent land cover classes, suggesting that local landowners may prevent fire in commercially valuable private agricultural land, but there may be no such prevention measures in industrial ELCs. Anti-fire policy enforcement in ELCs should be enhanced. Third, forests that converted into (degraded) shrublands would experience increasing fire frequency in the years leading up to transition, a hypothesis we found strong support for through our temporal analysis. Cambodia’s 2013 Law on Fire Prevention and Fire Fighting deputizes the public to enforce its provision, however given that the vast majority of fires occur in persistent forest in state-owned land, collective action problems are likely to hinder its effective implementation.