BACKGROUND. NAFLD ranges from simple steatosis (SS) to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). The natural history of NAFLD and the optimal strategy to identify subjects with progressive liver disease are unclear. Objectives. To assess the evidence in: (1) natural history of NAFLD; and (2) non-invasive methods to differentiate NAFLD histological subtypes. DESIGN AND SETTING. Among 4185 articles published on MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Pubmed, national and International meeting abstracts through July 2010, 40 articles assessing the natural history of NAFLD and 32 articles evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of non-invasive tests against liver biopsy (LB) were included. MEASUREMENTS. Two reviewers retrieved articles and evaluated study quality by appropriate scores. Main outcomes were pooled using random- or fixed-effects models. RESULTS. NAFLD has an increased overall mortality (OR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.18-2.10), deriving from liver-related and cardiovascular disease, and a 2-fold risk of diabetes. Compared to SS, NASH has a higher liver-related (OR for NASH: 5.71, 2.31-14.13; OR for NASH with advanced fibrosis: 10.06, 4.35-23.25), but not cardiovascular mortality (OR: 0.91, 0.42-1.98). Three non-invasive methods received independent validation: pooled AUROC, sensitivity and specificity of cytokeratin-18 for NASH are 0.82 (0.78-0.88), 0.78 (0.64-0.92), 0.87 (0.77-0.98). For NASH with advanced fibrosis, pooled AUROC, sensitivity and specificity of NAFLD fibrosis score and Fibroscan are 0.85 (0.80-0.93), 0.90 (0.82-0.99), 0.97 (0.94-0.99) and 0.94 (0.90-0.99), 0.94 (0.88-0.99) and 0.95 (0.89-0.99). CONCLUSIONS. NAFLD warrants screening for cardio-metabolic risk and for progressive liver disease. The combination of three noninvasive tests with LB may optimally individuate patients with NASH, with or without advanced fibrosis.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a frequent, under-recognized condition and a risk factor for renal failure and cardiovascular disease. Increasing evidence connects non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) to CKD. We conducted a meta-analysis to determine whether the presence and severity of NAFLD are associated with the presence and severity of CKD. English and non-English articles from international online databases from 1980 through January 31, 2014 were searched. Observational studies assessing NAFLD by histology, imaging, or biochemistry and defining CKD as either estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.73 m² or proteinuria were included. Two reviewers extracted studies independently and in duplicate. Individual participant data (IPD) were solicited from all selected studies. Studies providing IPD were combined with studies providing only aggregate data with the two-stage method. Main outcomes were pooled using random-effects models. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses were used to explore sources of heterogeneity and the effect of potential confounders. The influences of age, whole-body/abdominal obesity, homeostasis model of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and duration of follow-up on effect estimates were assessed by meta-regression. Thirty-three studies (63,902 participants, 16 population-based and 17 hospital-based, 20 cross-sectional, and 13 longitudinal) were included. For 20 studies (61% of included studies, 11 cross-sectional and nine longitudinal, 29,282 participants), we obtained IPD. NAFLD was associated with an increased risk of prevalent (odds ratio [OR] 2.12, 95% CI 1.69–2.66) and incident (hazard ratio [HR] 1.79, 95% CI 1.65–1.95) CKD. Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) was associated with a higher prevalence (OR 2.53, 95% CI 1.58–4.05) and incidence (HR 2.12, 95% CI 1.42–3.17) of CKD than simple steatosis. Advanced fibrosis was associated with a higher prevalence (OR 5.20, 95% CI 3.14–8.61) and incidence (HR 3.29, 95% CI 2.30–4.71) of CKD than non-advanced fibrosis. In all analyses, the magnitude and direction of effects remained unaffected by diabetes status, after adjustment for other risk factors, and in other subgroup and meta-regression analyses. In cross-sectional and longitudinal studies, the severity of NAFLD was positively associated with CKD stages. Limitations of analysis are the relatively small size of studies utilizing liver histology and the suboptimal sensitivity of ultrasound and biochemistry for NAFLD detection in population-based studies. The presence and severity of NAFLD are associated with an increased risk and severity of CKD. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary Chronic kidney disease (CKD)—the gradual loss of kidney function—is becoming increasingly common. In the US, for example, more than 10% of the adult population (about 26 million people) and more than 25% of individuals older than 65 years have CKD. Throughout life, the kidneys perform the essential task of filtering waste products (from the normal breakdown of tissues and from food) and excess water from the blood to make urine. CKD gradually destroys the kidneys' filtration units, the rate of blood filtration decreases, and dangerous amounts of waste products build up in the blood. Symptoms of CKD, which rarely occur until the disease is very advanced, include tiredness, swollen feet, and frequent urination, particularly at night. There is no cure for CKD, but progression of the disease can be slowed by controlling high blood pressure and diabetes (two risk factors for CKD), and by adopting a healthy lifestyle. The same interventions also reduce the chances of CKD developing in the first place. CKD is associated with an increased risk of end-stage renal (kidney) disease and of cardiovascular disease. These life-threatening complications are potentially preventable through early identification and treatment of CKD. Because early recognition of CKD has the potential to reduce its health-related burden, the search is on for new modifiable risk factors for CKD. One possible new risk factor is non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), which, like CKD is becoming increasingly common. Healthy livers contain little or no fat but, in the US, 30% of the general adult population and up to 70% of patients who are obese or have diabetes have some degree of NAFLD, which ranges in severity from simple fatty liver (steatosis), through non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), to NASH with fibrosis (scarring of the liver) and finally cirrhosis (extensive scarring). In this systematic review and meta-analysis, the researchers investigate whether NAFLD is a risk factor for CKD by looking for an association between the two conditions. A systematic review identifies all the research on a given topic using predefined criteria, meta-analysis uses statistical methods to combine the results of several studies. The researchers identified 33 studies that assessed NAFLD and CKD in nearly 64,000 participants, including 20 cross-sectional studies in which participants were assessed for NAFLD and CKD at a single time point and 13 longitudinal studies in which participants were assessed for NAFLD and then followed up to see whether they subsequently developed CKD. Meta-analysis of the data from the cross-sectional studies indicated that NAFLD was associated with a 2-fold increased risk of prevalent (pre-existing) CKD (an odds ratio [OR]of 2.12; an OR indicates the chance that an outcome will occur given a particular exposure, compared to the chance of the outcome occurring in the absence of that exposure). Meta-analysis of data from the longitudinal studies indicated that NAFLD was associated with a nearly 2-fold increased risk of incident (new) CKD (a hazard ratio [HR] of 1.79; an HR indicates often a particular event happens in one group compared to how often it happens in another group, over time). NASH was associated with a higher prevalence and incidence of CKD than simple steatosis. Similarly, advanced fibrosis was associated with a higher prevalence and incidence of CKD than non-advanced fibrosis. These findings suggest that NAFLD is associated with an increased prevalence and incidence of CKD and that increased severity of liver disease is associated with an increased risk and severity of CKD. Because these associations persist after allowing for established risk factors for CKD, these findings identify NAFLD as an independent CKD risk factor. Certain aspects of the studies included in this meta-analysis (for example, only a few studies used biopsies to diagnose NAFLD; most used less sensitive tests that may have misclassified some individuals with NAFLD as normal) and the methods used in the meta-analysis may limit the accuracy of these findings. Nevertheless, these findings suggest that individuals with NAFLD should be screened for CKD even in the absence of other risk factors for the disease, and that better treatment of NAFLD may help to prevent CKD. Please access these websites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001680.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) encompasses a spectrum ranging from simple steatosis to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH): NAFLD causes an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, diabetes and liver-related complications (the latter confined to NASH). The effect of proposed treatments on liver disease, glucose metabolism and cardiovascular risk in NAFLD is unknown. We reviewed the evidence for the management of liver disease and cardio-metabolic risk in NAFLD. Publications through November 2011 were systematically reviewed by two authors. Outcomes evaluated though standard methods were: histological/radiological/biochemical features of NAFLD, variables of glucose metabolism and cardiovascular risk factors. Seventy-eight randomised trials were included (38 in NASH, 40 in NAFLD): 41% assessed post-treatment histology, 71% assessed glucose metabolism and 88% assessed cardiovascular risk factors. Lifestyle intervention, thiazolidinediones, metformin and antioxidants were most extensively evaluated. Lifestyle-induced weight loss was safe and improved cardio-metabolic risk profile; a weight loss ≥7% improved histological disease activity, but was achieved by <50% patients. Statins and polyunsaturated fatty acids improved steatosis, but their effects on liver histology are unknown. Thiazolidinediones improved histological disease activity, glucose, lipid and inflammatory variables and delayed fibrosis progression. Pioglitazone also improved blood pressure. Weight gain (up to 4.8%) was common. Antioxidants yielded mixed histological results: vitamin E improved histological disease activity when administered for 2 years, but increased insulin resistance and plasma triacylglycerols. Weight loss is safe, and improves liver histology and cardio-metabolic profile. For patients not responding to lifestyle intervention, pioglitazone improves histological disease activity, slows fibrosis progression and extensively ameliorates cardio-metabolic endpoints. Further randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of adequate size and duration will assess long-term safety and efficacy of proposed treatments on clinical outcomes.

The connection between gut microbiota and energy homeostasis and inflammation and its role in the pathogenesis of obesity-related disorders are increasingly recognized. Animals models of obesity connect an altered microbiota composition to the development of obesity, insulin resistance, and diabetes in the host through several mechanisms: increased energy harvest from the diet, altered fatty acid metabolism and composition in adipose tissue and liver, modulation of gut peptide YY and glucagon-like peptide (GLP)-1 secretion, activation of the lipopolysaccharide toll-like receptor-4 axis, and modulation of intestinal barrier integrity by GLP-2. Instrumental for gut microbiota manipulation is the understanding of mechanisms regulating gut microbiota composition. Several factors shape the gut microflora during infancy: mode of delivery, type of infant feeding, hospitalization, and prematurity. Furthermore, the key importance of antibiotic use and dietary nutrient composition are increasingly recognized. The role of the Western diet in promoting an obesogenic gut microbiota is being confirmation in subjects. Following encouraging results in animals, several short-term randomized controlled trials showed the benefit of prebiotics and probiotics on insulin sensitivity, inflammatory markers, postprandial incretins, and glucose tolerance. Future research is needed to unravel the hormonal, immunomodulatory, and metabolic mechanisms underlying microbe-microbe and microbiota-host interactions and the specific genes that determine the health benefit derived from probiotics. While awaiting further randomized trials assessing long-term safety and benefits on clinical end points, a healthy lifestyle—including breast lactation, appropriate antibiotic use, and the avoidance of excessive dietary fat intake—may ensure a friendly gut microbiota and positively affect prevention and treatment of metabolic disorders.

Novel, culture-independent, molecular and metagenomic techniques have provided new insight into the complex interactions between the mammalian host and gut microbial species. It is increasingly evident that gut microbes may shape the host metabolic and immune network activity and ultimately influence the development of obesity and diabetes. We discuss the evidence connecting gut microflora to obesity and to type 1 and type 2 diabetes, and we present recent insights into potential mechanisms underlying this relationship: increased nutrient absorption from the diet, prolonged intestinal transit time, altered bile acid entero-hepatic cycle, increased cellular uptake of circulating triglycerides, enhanced de novo lipogenesis, reduced free fatty acid oxidation, altered tissue composition of biologically active polyunsaturated fatty acid, chronic low-grade inflammation triggered by the endotoxin toll-like receptor 4 axis, and altered intestinal barrier function.