Background: Patients with critical illness due to infection with the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) show rapid disease progression to acute respiratory failure. The study aimed to screen the most useful predictive factor for critical illness caused by COVID-19. Methods: The study prospectively involved 61 patients with COVID-19 infection as a derivation cohort, and 54 patients as a validation cohort. The predictive factor for critical illness was selected using LASSO regression analysis. A nomogram based on non-specific laboratory indicators was built to predict the probability of critical illness. Results: The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was identified as an independent risk factor for critical illness in patients with COVID-19 infection. The NLR had an area under receiver operating characteristic of 0.849 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.707 to 0.991) in the derivation cohort and 0.867 (95% CI 0.747 to 0.944) in the validation cohort, the calibration curves fitted well, and the decision and clinical impact curves showed that the NLR had high standardized net benefit. In addition, the incidence of critical illness was 9.1% (1/11) for patients aged ≥ 50 and having an NLR < 3.13, and 50% (7/14) patients with age ≥ 50 and NLR ≥ 3.13 were predicted to develop critical illness. Based on the risk stratification of NLR according to age, this study has developed a COVID-19 pneumonia management process. Conclusions: We found that NLR is a predictive factor for early-stage prediction of patients infected with COVID-19 who are likely to develop critical illness. Patients aged ≥ 50 and having an NLR ≥ 3.13 are predicted to develop critical illness, and they should thus have rapid access to an intensive care unit if necessary.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common malignant tumor with limited treatment options. Conventional antitumor therapy combined with traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) to limit tumor progression has gradually become the focus of complementary and alternative therapies for HCC treatment. The Fuzheng Jiedu Xiaoji formulation (FZJDXJ) alleviates the clinical symptoms of patients and inhibits tumor progression, but its curative effect still requires extensive clinical research and mechanistic analysis. To explore the effectiveness of FZJDXJ in HCC patients and investigate its biological function and mechanism underlying anticancer therapy. This randomized controlled clinical trial enrolled 291 HCC patients receiving transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) therapy; patients received either FZJDXJ combined with standard treatment, or standard treatment alone, for 48 weeks. Statistical analyses were performed according to survival time at the end of the trial. The main constituents of the FZJDXJ extracts were identified and evaluated using high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS) and molecular docking. The antitumor effects of FZJDXJ and its specific biological mechanism of action were studied. After 48 weeks of treatment, one-year overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were significantly different between the two groups. Co-administration of FZJDXJ and TACE prolonged the OS of HCC patients, especially in BCLC A or B stage. FZJDXJ and TACE treatment effectively extended the PFS of patients, especially in the BCLC B stage. HPLC-MS/MS identified 1619 active constituents of FZJDXJ, including formononetin, chlorogenic acid (CGA), caffeic acid, luteolin, gallic acid, diosgenin, ergosterol endoperoxide, and lupeol, which may function through the AKT/CyclinD1/p21/p27 pathways. Through molecular docking, CGA and gallic acid could effectively combine with Thr308, an important phosphorylation site of AKT1. FZJDXJ inhibited tumor growth in nude mice. In vitro, FZJDXJ-mediated serum inhibited the proliferation, migration, and invasion of liver cancer cells, and promoted cell apoptosis. Clinically, FZJDXJ combined with TACE therapy significantly prolonged OS and PFS and reduced the mortality rate of HCC patients. Mechanistically, FZJDXJ effectively inhibited the proliferation and migration of liver cancer cells through the modulation of the AKT/CyclinD1/p21/p27 pathways, and may be a promising TCM drug for anti-HCC therapy.

Background: Severe ill patients with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection progressed rapidly to acute respiratory failure. We aimed to select the most useful prognostic factor for severe illness incidence. Methods: The study prospectively included 61 patients with 2019-nCoV infection treated at Beijing Ditan Hospital from January 13, 2020 to January 31, 2020. Prognostic factor of severe illness was selected by the LASSO COX regression analyses, to predict the severe illness probability of 2019-CoV pneumonia. The predictive accuracy was evaluated by concordance index, calibration curve, decision curve and clinical impact curve. Results: The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was identified as the independent risk factor for severe illness in patients with 2019-nCoV infection. The NLR had a c-index of 0.807 (95% confidence interval, 0.676–0.38), the calibration curves fitted well, and the decision curve and clinical impact curve showed that the NLR had superior standardized net benefit. In addition, the incidence of severe illness was 9.1% in age ≥ 50 and NLR < 3.13 patients, and half of patients with age ≥ 50 and NLR ≥ 3.13 would develop severe illness. Based on the risk stratification of NLR with age, the study developed a 2019-nCoV pneumonia management process. Conclusions: The NLR was the early identification of risk factors for 2019-nCoV severe illness. Patients with age ≥ 50 and NLR ≥ 3.13 facilitated severe illness, and they should rapidly access to intensive care unit if necessary.

Background and aims: Given hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HBV-HCC) exhibits unique gut microbiota characteristics and a significant immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment. Thus, a better understanding of the correlation between gut microbiota and the immunosuppressive response may help predict occurrence and prognosis of HBV-HCC.Methods: Here, in a cohort of ninety adults (healthy control n=30, HBV-cirrhosis n=30, HBV-HCC n=30) with clinical data, fecal 16S rRNA gene sequencing, matched peripheral blood immune response with flow cytometry analysis. Correlation between the gut microbiome of significantly different in HBV-HCC patients and clinical parameters as well as the peripheral immune response was assessed.Results: We found that community structures and diversity of the gut microbiota in HBV-CLD patients become more unbalanced. Differential microbiota analysis that p:Acidobacteriota, p:Proteobacteria, p:Campilobacterota, f:Streptococcaceae, g:Klebsiella associated with inflammation were enriched. The beneficial bacteria of f:Clostridia UCG−014, f:Oscillospiraceae, f:_Rikenellaceae, g:_Barnesiella, g:Prevotella, g:Agathobacter were decreased. Functional analysis of gut microbiota revealed that lipopolysaccharide biosynthesis, lipid metabolism, butanoate metabolism were significantly elevated in HBV-CLD patients. Spearman’s correlation analysis showed that Muribaculaceae, Akkermaniacaeae, [Eubacterium]_coprostanoligenes_group, RF39, Tannerellaceae have positive correlation with CD3+T, CD4+T and CD8+T cell counts while negatively correlated with liver dysfunction. Furthermore, paired peripheral blood showed a decreased proportion of CD3+T, CD4+T and CD8+T cells, while an increased T (Treg) cells. The immunosuppressive response of programmed cell death 1 (PD-1), cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen 4 (CTLA-4), immune receptor tyrosine based inhibitor motor (ITIM) domain (TIGIT), T-cell immune domain, and multiple domain 3 (TIM-3) of CD8+T cells were higher in HBV-HCC patients. They were positively correlated with harmful bacteria, such as Actinobaciota, Myxococota, Streptococcaceae and Eubacterium coprostanoligenes.Conclusions: Our study indicated that gut beneficial bacteria, mainly Firmicutes and Bacteroides appeared dysbiosis in HBV-CLD patients. They have negative regulation of liver dysfunction and T cell immune response. It provides potential avenues for microbiome-based prevention and intervention for anti-tumor immune effects of HBV-CLD.

The purpose of this study was to develop an effective nomogram capable of estimating the individual survival outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and compare the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability with other staging systems. The nomogram was established based on a retrospective study of 661 patients newly diagnosed with HCC at the Beijing Ditan Hospital (Beijing, China), Capital Medical University, between October 2008 and July 2012. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the previously developed nomogram were assessed by C-index and calibration curves, and were compared to seven current commonly used staging systems. The results were validated, using a bootstrap approach to correct for bias, in a prospective study of 220 patients consecutively enrolled between August 2012 and March 2013. Multivariate analysis of the primary cohort for survival analysis identified the independent factors to be aspartate aminotransferase, ɣ-glutamyl transpeptidase, white blood cell count, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, prothrombin activity, α-fetoprotein, tumor number and size, lymph node metastasis, and portal vein involvement, which were all included to build the nomogram. The calibration curve for predicting the probability of survival showed consistency between the nomogram and the actual observation. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.79–0.82), which was statistically better than that of the Tumor, Node, Metastasis staging (0.71), Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging (0.77), Okuda (0.62), Japan Integrated Staging (0.73), Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score (0.76), Chinese University Prognostic Index (0.68), and the Groupe d’ Etude et de Traitement du Carcinome Hepatocellulaire Prognostic classification (0.65) (p < 0.001 for all). The results were validated in the prospective validation cohort. The prognostic nomogram resulted in more accurate individualized risk estimates for overall survival in HCC patients.