Losing its character: The eastern Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean is on the far side of the North Pole from the Atlantic, but it is becoming more like its larger neighbor as the climate warms. Polyakov et al. show that this region is also evolving toward a state of weakened stratification with increased vertical mixing, release of oceanic heat, and less sea ice. These changes could have considerable impacts on other geophysical and biogeochemical aspects of the Arctic Ocean system and presage a fundamentally new Arctic climate state. Science , this issue p. 285

Broad, long-living, ice-free areas in midwinter northeast of Svalbard between 2011 and 2014 are investigated. The formation of these persistent and reemerging anomalies is linked, hypothetically, with the increased seasonality of Arctic sea ice cover, enabling an enhanced influence of oceanic heat on sea ice and, in particular, heat transported by Atlantic Water. The “memory” of ice-depleted conditions in summer is transferred to the fall season through excess heat content in the upper mixed layer, which in turn transfers to midwinter via thinner and younger ice. This thinner ice is more fragile and mobile, thus facilitating the formation of polynyas and leads. When openings in ice cover form along the Atlantic Water pathway, weak density stratification at the mixed layer base supports the development of thermohaline convection, which further entrains warm and salty water from deeper layers. Convection-induced upward heat flux from the Atlantic layer retards ice formation, either keeping ice thickness low or blocking ice formation entirely. Certain stages of this chain of events have been examined in a region north of Svalbard and Franz Joseph Land, between 80° and 83°N and 15° and 60°E, where the top hundred meters of Atlantic inflow through the Fram Strait cools and freshens rapidly. Complementary research methods, including statistical analyses of observations and numerical modeling, are used to support the basic concept that the recently observed retreat of sea ice northeast of Svalbard in winter may be explained by a positive feedback between summer ice decay and the growing influence of oceanic heat on a seasonal time scale.

A 15‐year (2004–2018) record of mooring observations from the upper 50 m of the ocean in the eastern Eurasian Basin reveals increased current speeds and vertical shear, associated with an increasing coupling between wind, ice, and the upper ocean over 2004–2018, particularly in summer. Substantial increases in current speeds and shears in the upper 50 m are dominated by a two times amplification of currents in the semidiurnal band, which includes tides and wind‐forced near‐inertial oscillations. For the first time the strengthened upper ocean currents and shear are observed to coincide with weakening stratification. This coupling links the Atlantic Water heat to the sea ice, a consequence of which would be reducing regional sea ice volume. These results point to a new positive feedback mechanism in which reduced sea ice extent facilitates more energetic inertial oscillations and associated upper‐ocean shear, thus leading to enhanced ventilation of the Atlantic Water.

A distinct, subsurface density front along the eastern St. Anna Trough in the northern Kara Sea is inferred from hydrographic observations in 1996 and 2008–2010. Direct velocity measurements show a persistent northward subsurface current (~ 18 cm s ⁻¹ ) along the St. Anna Trough eastern flank. This sheared flow, carrying the outflow from the Barents and Kara seas to the Arctic Ocean, is also evident from shipboard observations as well as from geostrophic velocities and numerical model simulations. Although we cannot substantiate our conclusions by direct observation-based estimates of mixing rates in the area, we hypothesize that the enhanced vertical mixing along the St. Anna Trough eastern flank favors the upward heat loss from the intermediate warm Atlantic water layer. Modeling results support this hypothesis. The upward heat flux inferred from hydrographic data and model simulations is of O (30–100) W m ⁻² . The region of lowered sea ice thickness and concentration seen both in sea ice remote sensing observations and model simulations marks the Atlantic water pathway in the St. Anna Trough and adjacent Nansen Basin continental margin. In fact, the sea ice shows a delayed freeze-up onset during fall and a reduction in the sea ice thickness during winter. This is consistent with our results on the enhanced Atlantic water heat loss along the Atlantic water pathway in the St. Anna Trough.

We explore dense water cascading (DWC), a type of bottom‐trapped gravity current, on multidecadal time scales using a pan‐Arctic regional ocean‐ice model. DWC is particularly important in the Arctic Ocean as the main mechanism of ventilation of interior waters when open ocean convection is blocked by strong density stratification. We identify the locations where the most intense DWC events occur and evaluate the associated cross‐shelf mass, heat, and salt fluxes. We find that the modeled locations of cascading agree well with the sparse historical observations and that cascading is the dominant process responsible for cross‐shelf exchange in the boundary layers. Simulated DWC fluxes of 1.3 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³/s) in the Central Arctic are comparable to Bering Strait inflow, with associated surface and benthic Ekman fluxes of 0.85 and 0.58 Sv. With ice decline, both surface Ekman flux and DWC fluxes are increasing at a rate of 0.023 and 0.0175 Sv/year, respectively. A detailed analysis of specific cascading sites around the Beaufort Gyre and adjacent regions shows that autumn upwelling of warm and saltier Atlantic waters on the shelf and subsequent cooling and mixing of uplifted waters trigger the cascading on the West Chukchi Sea shelf break. Lagrangian particle tracking of low salinity Pacific waters originating at the surface in the Bering Strait shows that these waters are modified by brine rejection and cooling, and through subsequent mixing become dense enough to reach depths of 160–200 m.

Since the mid-1990s, there has been a marked decrease in the sea ice extent (SIE) in the Arctic Ocean. After reaching an absolute minimum in September 2012, the seasonal variations in the SIE have settled at a new level, which is almost one-quarter lower than the average climatic norm of 1979–2022. Increased melting and accelerated ice export from marginal seas ensure an increase in the open water area, which affects the lower atmosphere and the surface layer of the ocean. Scientists are cautiously predicting a transition to a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean as early as the middle of this century, which is about 50 years earlier than was predicted just a few years ago. Such predictions are based on the fact that the decrease in sea ice extent and ice thinning that occurred at the beginning of this century, initially caused by an increase in air temperature, triggered an increase in the thermal and dynamic contribution of the ocean to the further reduction in the ice cover. This paper reviews published evidence of such changes and discusses possible mechanisms behind the observed regional anomalies of the Arctic Sea ice cover parameters in the last decade.