OBJECTIVE There is dissociation between insulin resistance, overweight/obesity, and fatty liver as risk factors for type 2 diabetes, suggesting that different mechanisms are involved. Our aim was to 1) quantify risk of incident diabetes at follow-up with different combinations of these risk factors at baseline and 2) determine whether each is an independent risk factor for diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We examined 12,853 subjects without diabetes from a South Korean occupational cohort, and insulin resistance (IR) (homeostasis model assessment-IR ≥75th centile, ≥2.0), fatty liver (defined by standard ultrasound criteria), and overweight/obesity (BMI ≥25 kg/m²) identified at baseline. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident diabetes at 5-year follow-up were estimated using logistic regression. RESULTS We identified 223 incident cases of diabetes from which 26 subjects had none of the three risk factors, 37 had one, 56 had two, and 104 had three. In the fully adjusted model, the OR and CI for diabetes were 3.92 (2.86–5.37) for IR, 1.62 (1.17–2.24) for overweight/obesity, and 2.42 (1.74–3.36) for fatty liver. The OR for the presence of all three factors in a fully adjusted model was 14.13 (8.99–22.21). CONCLUSIONS The clustering of IR, overweight/obesity, and fatty liver is common and markedly increases the odds of developing type 2 diabetes, but these factors also have effects independently of each other and of confounding factors. The data suggest that treatment for each factor is needed to decrease risk of type 2 diabetes.

Context: Fatty liver is associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes, but whether an increased risk remains in people in whom fatty liver resolves over time is not known. Objective: The objective of the study was to assess the risk of incident diabetes at a 5-year follow-up in people in whom: 1) new fatty liver developed; 2) existing fatty liver resolved, and 3) fatty liver severity worsened over 5 years. Design and Methods: A total of 13 218 people without diabetes at baseline from a Korean occupational cohort were examined at baseline and after 5 years, using a retrospective study design. Fatty liver status was assessed at baseline and follow-up as absent, mild, or moderate/severe using standard ultrasound criteria. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident diabetes at follow-up were estimated after controlling for multiple potential confounders. Results: Two hundred thirty-four people developed incident diabetes. Over 5 years, fatty liver resolved in 828, developed in 1640, and progressed from mild to moderate/severe in 324 people. Resolution of fatty liver was not associated with a risk of incident diabetes [aOR 0.95 (95% CIs 0.46, 1.96), P = .89]. Development of new fatty liver was associated with incident diabetes [aOR 2.49 (95% CI 1.49, 4.14), P < .001]. In individuals in whom severity of fatty liver worsened over 5 years (from mild to moderate/severe), there was a marked increase in the risk of incident diabetes [aOR 6.13 (2.56, 95% CI 14.68) P < .001 (compared with the risk in people with resolution of fatty liver)]. Conclusion: Change in fatty liver status over time is associated with markedly variable risks of incident diabetes.

OBJECTIVE Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) coexists with insulin resistance (IR), but it is uncertain whether NAFLD and IR contribute independently to atherosclerosis. We tested whether fatty liver, IR, and metabolic syndrome (MetS) features (waist, glucose, triglyceride, HDL cholesterol [HDL-C], and blood pressure) were associated with a marker of atherosclerosis (coronary artery calcium [CAC] score >0), independently of cardiovascular risk factors and cardiovascular disease (CVD). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Data were analyzed from a South Korean occupational cohort of 10,153 people who all received ultrasound measurements of fatty liver and a cardiac computed tomography CAC score. IR was defined by homeostasis model assessment of IR (HOMA-IR) ≥75th percentile. Odds ratios (ORs) (95% CIs) for the presence of a CAC score >0 were estimated using logistic regression. RESULTS There were 915 people with a CAC score >0. MetS features were increased (glucose, blood pressure, triglyceride, and waist) or decreased (HDL-C) among people with a CAC score >0 (all comparisons against CAC score ≤0; P < 0.0001). Of subjects with a CAC score >0, 55% had fatty liver and 33.7% were insulin resistant. Fatty liver (OR 1.21 [95% CI 1.01–1.45]; P = 0.04) and HOMA-IR (1.10 [1.02–1.18]; P = 0.02) were associated with CAC score >0, independently of all MetS features, conventional cardiovascular risk factors, and prior evidence of CVD. The presence of IR and fatty liver combined was associated with CAC score >0 (1.53 [1.20–1.95]; P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Fatty liver and HOMA-IR are both associated with a CAC score >0 (independently of each other), features of MetS, conventional cardiovascular risk factors, and existing CVD.

Context: Although fatty liver and insulin resistance are known to be associated, the relationship between the two in the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is unclear. Objective: We investigated the 5-yr risk of developing T2DM in individuals diagnosed with fatty liver using ultrasound and stratified by insulin sensitivity using quartiles of fasting insulin concentration. Design and Methods: We examined the clinical and laboratory data of 11,091 Koreans who had a medical evaluation including fasting insulin concentration and abdominal ultrasound at baseline and had a follow-up after 5 yr. Results: At baseline, 27% of the population had fatty liver. Almost half (47%) of the individuals with fatty liver had baseline insulin concentration in the highest quartile compared with 17% in those without fatty liver (P < 0.001). Regardless of baseline insulin concentration, individuals with fatty liver had significantly (P < 0.001) more baseline clinical and metabolic abnormalities, including higher glucose and triglyceride concentration and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration. In addition, regardless of baseline insulin concentration, individuals with fatty liver had a significantly increased risk for incident T2DM compared with those without fatty liver [crude odds ratio, 5.05 (95% confidence interval, 2.08–12.29) in the lowest insulin quartile and 6.34 (3.58–11.21) in the highest quartile]. In individuals in the highest insulin quartile, the odds ratio for developing T2DM remained significant even after multivariate adjustment including baseline glucose concentration [2.42 (1.23–4.75)]. Conclusion: Although associated with insulin resistance, fatty liver diagnosed by ultrasound appears to independently increase the risk of T2DM.