Countries such as China are facing a bottleneck in their paths to carbon neutrality: abating emissions in heavy industries and heavy-duty transport. There are few in-depth studies of the prospective role for clean hydrogen in these ‘hard-to-abate’ (HTA) sectors. Here we carry out an integrated dynamic least-cost modelling analysis. Results show that, first, clean hydrogen can be both a major energy carrier and feedstock that can significantly reduce carbon emissions of heavy industry. It can also fuel up to 50% of China’s heavy-duty truck and bus fleets by 2060 and significant shares of shipping. Second, a realistic clean hydrogen scenario that reaches 65.7 Mt of production in 2060 could avoid US$1.72 trillion of new investment compared with a no-hydrogen scenario. This study provides evidence of the value of clean hydrogen in HTA sectors for China and countries facing similar challenges in reducing emissions to achieve net-zero goals.

Severe events of wintertime particulate air pollution in Beijing (winter haze) are associated with high relative humidity (RH) and fast production of particulate sulfate from the oxidation of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emitted by coal combustion. There has been considerable debate regarding the mechanism for SO₂ oxidation. Here we show evidence from field observations of a haze event that rapid oxidation of SO₂ by nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and nitrous acid (HONO) takes place, the latter producing nitrous oxide (N₂O). Sulfate shifts to larger particle sizes during the event, indicative of fog/cloud processing. Fog and cloud readily form under winter haze conditions, leading to high liquid water contents with high pH (>5.5) from elevated ammonia. Such conditions enable fast aqueous-phase oxidation of SO₂ by NO₂, producing HONO which can in turn oxidize SO₂ to yield N₂O.This mechanism could provide an explanation for sulfate formation under some winter haze conditions.

PH is an important property of aerosol particles but is difficult to measure directly. Several studies have estimated the pH values for fine particles in northern China winter haze using thermodynamic models (i.e., E-AIM and ISORROPIA) and ambient measurements. The reported pH values differ widely, ranging from close to 0 (highly acidic) to as high as 7 (neutral). In order to understand the reason for this discrepancy, we calculated pH values using these models with different assumptions with regard to model inputs and particle phase states. We find that the large discrepancy is due primarily to differences in the model assumptions adopted in previous studies. Calculations using only aerosol-phase composition as inputs (i.e., reverse mode) are sensitive to the measurement errors of ionic species, and inferred pH values exhibit a bimodal distribution, with peaks between −2 and 2 and between 7 and 10, depending on whether anions or cations are in excess. Calculations using total (gas plus aerosol phase) measurements as inputs (i.e., forward mode) are affected much less by these measurement errors. In future studies, the reverse mode should be avoided whereas the forward mode should be used. Forward-mode calculations in this and previous studies collectively indicate a moderately acidic condition (pH from about 4 to about 5) for fine particles in northern China winter haze, indicating further that ammonia plays an important role in determining this property. The assumed particle phase state, either stable (solid plus liquid) or metastable (only liquid), does not significantly impact pH predictions. The unrealistic pH values of about 7 in a few previous studies (using the standard ISORROPIA model and stable state assumption) resulted from coding errors in the model, which have been identified and fixed in this study.

Air quality models have not been able to reproduce the magnitude of the observed concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) during wintertime Chinese haze events. The discrepancy has been at least partly attributed to low biases in modeled sulfate production rates, due to the lack of heterogeneous sulfate production on aerosols in the models. In this study, we explicitly implement four heterogeneous sulfate formation mechanisms into a regional chemical transport model, in addition to gas-phase and in-cloud sulfate production. We compare the model results with observations of sulfate concentrations and oxygen isotopes, Δ¹⁷O(${\mathrm{SO}}_{\mathrm{4}}^{\mathrm{2}-}$ ), in the winter of 2014–2015, the latter of which is highly sensitive to the relative importance of different sulfate production mechanisms. Model results suggest that heterogeneous sulfate production on aerosols accounts for about 20 % of sulfate production in clean and polluted conditions, partially reducing the modeled low bias in sulfate concentrations. Model sensitivity studies in comparison with the Δ¹⁷O(${\mathrm{SO}}_{\mathrm{4}}^{\mathrm{2}-}$ ) observations suggest that heterogeneous sulfate formation is dominated by transition metal ion-catalyzed oxidation of SO₂.

A regional fully coupled meteorology–chemistry model, Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), was employed to study the seasonality of ozone (O₃) pollution and its sources in both China and India. Observations and model results suggest that O₃ in the North China Plain (NCP), Yangtze River Delta (YRD), Pearl River Delta (PRD), and India exhibit distinctive seasonal features, which are linked to the influence of summer monsoons. Through a factor separation approach, we examined the sensitivity of O₃ to individual anthropogenic, biogenic, and biomass burning emissions. We found that summer O₃ formation in China is more sensitive to industrial and biogenic sources than to other source sectors, while the transportation and biogenic sources are more important in all seasons for India. Tagged simulations suggest that local sources play an important role in the formation of the summer O₃ peak in the NCP, but sources from Northwest China should not be neglected to control summer O₃ in the NCP. For the YRD region, prevailing winds and cleaner air from the ocean in summer lead to reduced transport from polluted regions, and the major source region in addition to local sources is Southeast China. For the PRD region, the upwind region is replaced by contributions from polluted PRD as autumn approaches, leading to an autumn peak. The major upwind regions in autumn for the PRD are YRD (11 %) and Southeast China (10 %). For India, sources in North India are more important than sources in the south. These analyses emphasize the relative importance of source sectors and regions as they change with seasons, providing important implications for O₃ control strategies.

The chemical mechanisms responsible for rapid sulfate production, an important driver of winter haze formation in northern China, remain unclear. Here, we propose a potentially important heterogeneous hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS) chemical mechanism. Through analyzing field measurements with aerosol mass spectrometry, we show evidence for a possible significant existence in haze aerosols of organosulfur primarily as HMS, misidentified as sulfate in previous observations. We estimate that HMS can account for up to about one-third of the sulfate concentrations unexplained by current air quality models. Heterogeneous production of HMS by SO₂ and formaldehyde is favored under northern China winter haze conditions due to high aerosol water content, moderately acidic pH values, high gaseous precursor levels, and low temperature. These analyses identify an unappreciated importance of formaldehyde in secondary aerosol formation and call for more research on sources and on the chemistry of formaldehyde in northern China winter.