Present and future: Does agriculture affect economic growth and the environment in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia? | Abda Emam | Agricultural Journals

This study was designed to assess the long-run association between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and world export fertilizer (urea and DAP) prices. It also aims to disclose the effect of KSA fertilizer export quantities on global food security. KSA and world fertilizer prices and quantities were collected from various sources for the period ranging from 2002 to 2020. The results from the autoregressive distributed lag bounds and Engle–Granger two-step procedure tests discovered that there are long-run associations between KSA and world urea and DAP prices, respectively. Fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares model results were compatible with the results of the autoregressive distributed lag model. From the ECM results, the coefficient of adjustment parameter for KSA urea and DAP prices (as a dependent variable) proved positive and insignificant, leading to the conclusion that the model was powerless to right its previous time instability. This may be due to the short time interval of the series under study, and indicate that it requires more than 12 months to return to its long-run equilibrium. Likewise, the results showed that KSA fertilizer (urea and DAP) export quantities have a positive, highly significant impact on world urea and DAP export quantities. Reference to forecasting analysis results, the growth rates of urea exports quantities equal to 0.002 and 0.004 for the period from 2002 to 2018 and from 2019 to 2026, respectively. In addition, the growth rates of DAP export quantities equal to 0.45 and 0.07 for the period 2002 to 2018 and for the forecast period 2019 to 2026, respectively. With reference to KSA fertilizer exports, the importer countries rank among the main countries producing wheat, sorghum, maize, rice, and millet (chief food crops) in the world, showing that the KSA fertilizer (urea and DAP) export quantities contribute directly to global food security through fertilizer exportation and indirectly through the contribution of the importer’s countries in production of chief food crops. Recommendations drawn from the results are to increase the contribution of the KSA to global food security through lowering the time required to absorb fertilizer price shocks in the world (less than 12 months) and increase the KSA’s fertilizer export quantities.

This study aimed to assess the impact of climatic alteration on food security in Saudi Arabia. Date productivity, temperature, and precipitation represent the data which were collected from various sources linked to the study subject and cover the period from 1980 to 2023. The Engle–Granger two-step procedure, the VECM, and forecast analysis were applied to test the long-term relationship, short-term integration, and forecasting, respectively. Moreover, qualitative analysis was used to reveal the influence of climatic change on food security. The results discovered long-term co-integration between date productivity and temperature. Additionally, the results revealed that there has been long-running co-integration between date productivity and the precipitation series. Temperature and precipitation negatively and significantly impacted date productivity during the study period. With reference to forecast results, the graph was validated using various forecast indicators: the Alpha, Gamma, Beta, and Mean Square Error equivalents were 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, and 5.47, respectively. Moreover, the growth rates of date productivity were equal to 0.82 and 0.08 for the periods from 1980 to 2022 and 2023 to 2034 (forecast), respectively, indicating that there is a decrease in the growth rate of date productivity (0.08) during the forecast period. From these results, the conclusion is that climatic change (temperature and precipitation) negatively impacts date productivity. In addition, the growth rate during the forecast period decreased, indicating that climatic change is affecting food security currently and will continue to do so in the future. This study recommended specific policy interventions and innovations in agricultural practices, including developing and implementing a national framework focused on climate-smart agriculture, balancing productivity, adaptation, and mitigation. This could be aligned with Vision 2030 and the Saudi Green Initiative. Additionally, this could include investing in research and development by increasing public–private partnerships to support agricultural R&D in arid regions, with a focus on heat- and drought-resistant crop varieties and water-efficient farming systems. Regarding agricultural innovations, these could include the use of renewable energy, particularly solar energy, the expansion of rainwater harvesting infrastructure, recycling treated wastewater for agriculture, and reducing reliance on groundwater sources.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has set Vision 2030 to reduce the total dependency of the country oil sectors, diversifying the economy and achieving sustainable food security. This necessitated conducting this study which aimed at estimating and analyzing the association and impact of selected agricultural subsectors (dates, honey, fish, chicken, and cattle) on Agricultural Growth Domestic Product (AGDP) of KSA, and identifying the leading subsector in the economy that might substantially affect AGDP and other subsectors. Unit root test, Johansen co-integration, vector error correction model (VECM), multiple regression techniques, and impulse test were used in analyzing the secondary data that covered the period from 1985 to 2017. Results revealed the presence of long-run co-integration between designated variables. Only the coefficient of adjustment parameter for dates (as dependent variable) is negative (−5.42) and significant (critical t value = −2.52 with p = .02), meaning that the model was able to correct its past-time disequilibrium. Furthermore, short-run causality was noticed between few variables. The regression analysis results indicated the existence of positive and significant relationships between the dependent (AGDP) and each of the independent variables: cattle (0.83; p = .00), honey (50.05; p = .06), and chicken (0.07; p = .00). On the contrary, results of the impulse tests showed that the cattle subsector is leading in the economy. Accordingly, cattle, honey, and chicken subsectors should be given high priority in the government investment policy.

Reports from the World Tourism Organization indicate that tourism activity has been increasingly booming; this sector is essential for economic growth and may affect the environment. Tourism is one of the key strategic sectors for planned growth in Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. This study is designed to evaluate the long-termning association between tourist arrivals, growth domestic product (GDP), and CO₂ emissions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The data related to these variables were assessed for the period 2010 to 2020. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds results revealed that there are long-established relations between tourist arrivals and growth domestic product and tourist arrivals and CO₂ emissions. The dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) model outcomes were compatible with the outcomes of the ARDL model. In reference to the Granger causality test, tourist arrivals cause (affect) the GDP. Such a result confirms the conception that tourism encourages economic growth. No causality runs from tourist arrivals towards CO₂ accumulation. This result may reflect the governmental effort to reduce CO₂ accumulation and/or to perform tourism activities in a sustainable way. The results predicted that the growth rate of tourist arrivals, GDP, and CO₂ accumulation equal 0.0023, 0.048, and 0.0169, respectively, during the forecast period (2021–2030), which appeared to be increasing for tourist arrivals and GDP and decreasing for CO₂ accumulation. The study recommended that, to increase economic growth, tourist arrivals should be increased alongside performing tourism activities in a sustainable way. These findings point to the benefits of governance in ensuring effective policies to decarbonize the environment, and policy proposals are put forward accordingly.