The Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo (MRSP) is one of the main regions of Brazil that in recent years has shown an increase in the number of days with heat waves, mainly affecting the health of the most sensitive populations, such as the elderly. In this study, we identified the heat waves in the MRSP using three different definitions regarding the maximum daily temperature threshold. To analyze the impact of heat waves on elderly mortality, we used distributed lag nonlinear models (dlnm) and we quantified the heat wave-related excess mortality of elderly people from 1985 to 2005 and made projections for the near future (2030 to 2050) and the distant future (2079–2099) under the climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (RCP: Representative Concentration Paths). An important aspect of this research is that for the projections we take into account two assumptions: non-adaptation and adaptation to the future climate. Our projections show that the heat wave-related excess of elderly mortality will increase in the future, being highest when we consider no adaptation, mainly from cardiovascular diseases in women (up to 587 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per year). This study can be used for public policies to implement preventive and adaptive measures in the MRSP.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune, neurological, and demyelinating disease of unknown etiology. Neuroinflammation caused by the disease has been associated with air pollution as well as bioclimatic conditions. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts of air pollution and human thermal discomfort on hospitalizations for multiple sclerosis in Sao Paulo, Brazil, from 2008 to 2015. Generalized Additive Model for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) with Zero Inflated Poisson was used to relate multiple sclerosis hospitalizations in three age groups (less than 30 years old, between 30 and 50 years old, and more than 50 years old) and gender (female and male) with atmospheric pollutants PM₁₀, SO₂, NO₂, NO, and NO_x and thermal discomfort. The results showed that the exposure to an increase of 1 µg/m³ in SO₂ concentration is highly associated with a 10% increase of the risk of MS hospitalization (95% CI: 2–21%) in female patients and a 7.5% (95% CI: 1.5–16%) increase in male patients. PM₁₀ and NO were associated with increased MS risk only for female patients, mainly aged between 30 and 50 years old (2% and 1% increase in hospitalizations, respectively). The cold discomfort was also associated with MS hospitalization, mainly in males (2% increase in hospitalizations; 95% IC: 1–3%). These results are important, since there are few studies that relate air pollution and thermal discomfort with hospitalizations for multiple sclerosis in Brazil.