The primary purpose of the paper is to enable deeper insight into the measurement of economic forecast accuracy. The paper employs the systematic literature review as its research methodology. It is also the first systematic review of the measures of economic forecast accuracy conducted in scientific research. The citation-based analysis confirms the growing interest of researchers in the topic. Research on economic forecast accuracy is continuously developing and improving with the adoption of new methodological approaches. An overview of the limits and advantages of the methods used to assess forecast accuracy not only facilitate the selection and application of appropriate measures in future analytical works but also contribute to a better interpretation of the results. In addition to the presented advantages and disadvantages, the chronological presentation of methodological development (measures, tests, and strategies) provides an insight into the possibilities of further upgrading and improving the methodological framework. The review of empirical findings, in addition to insight into existing results, indicates insufficiently researched topics. All in all, the results presented in this paper can be a good basis and inspiration for creating new scientific contributions in future works.
1 January 2019 in Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja
The article quantifies the sources of manufacturing export growth in Croatia. The research objectives are achieved by applying the constant market share method (C.M.S.) and input–output model. While the C.M.S. method quantifies the factors which explain trends in manufacturing exports, the input–output method quantifies the impacts of manufacturing exports on other domestic sectors. The obtained results show that after the E.U. accession export performance of the Croatian manufacturing industry have substantially improved. The results indicate that a gain in competitiveness in the Croatian manufacturing industry was the most important factor which determined the increasing share of national companies in a period from 2013 to 2015. Besides the manufacturing industry, export growth indirectly contributes to better performance of all domestic producers included in the value added chain of exporters. Indirect effects are the most pronounced for agriculture, trade, transport and business services.
The goal of this article is to provide a deeper insight to the overall contribution of the export of food products to the Croatian economy and to estimate the direct and indirect impact of the international competitiveness of food producers on other domestic sectors. The authors measure the importance of the food sector by employing both the constant market share (CMS) and the input-output analysis. The results indicate that a loss in competitiveness in the Croatian food industry was the most important factor that determined the decreasing share of national companies in the period from 2009, when the global recession started, up to 2013, when Croatia joined the EU. EU membership strongly and positively influenced the performance of Croatian food exports. The negative trend regarding the share of the international food market was reversed. Besides having a direct impact on the export performance of the food industry, the international competitiveness of food producers indirectly affects other domestic companies whose products are used as intermediate inputs in the food industry. The study also presents a benchmark of results with previous research for EU countries, which rarely included Croatia before the accession in 2013. As far as output and value added are concerned, multipliers for the food industry are relatively significant and higher than the national average, and the food industry could be assessed as one of the key Croatian economic sectors.
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of the global recession on selected southeast European countries. The implicit hypotheses of the paper are therefore related, first, to the question of sustainability of the global model of development, and second, to the sustainability of the economic model of development of the southeast European countries in which overall weak export orientation is a constant problem. The first sign of economic recession in the southeast European countries was a significant reduction of exports, which was the consequence of a strong decline in foreign demand. The stagnation and reduction of activities in other sectors, especially in trade, construction, and industry, soon followed. A reduction in personal consumption and the need to curtail the growth of government spending indicate that in the following period the only, and major, sources of economic growth are an increase of investments and exports. The results confirm the possibilities of strengthening mutual econom...
The aim of this research is to gain new insights into the extent of economic cooperation between Croatia and countries in the region. We also aim to find out which countries and economic sectors cooperate the most and to establish whether there is a trend to their economic cooperation. The research methodology is based on the construction and implementation of a harmonised cooperation index (HCI), with data on economic cooperation in foreign trade, foreign direct investment and tourism among the countries in the region serving as a basis for index calculation. The article introduces a harmonised index of cooperation for post-transition countries, using a broader base than is traditionally found in the literature. Research results show that the greatest cooperation progress has been achieved in foreign trade, while the potential in two other sectors has not yet been sufficiently exploited.