Accurate estimation of drought events is vital for the mitigation of their adverse consequences on water resources, agriculture and ecosystems. Machine learning algorithms are promising methods for drought prediction as they require less time, minimal inputs, and are relatively less complex than dynamic or physical models. In this study, a combination of machine learning with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is proposed for analysis of drought within a representative case study in the Tibetan Plateau, China, for the period of 1980-2019. Two timescales of 3 months (SPEI-3) and 6 months (SPEI-6) aggregation were considered. Four machine learning models of Random Forest (RF), the Extreme Gradient Boost (XGB), the Convolutional neural network (CNN) and the Long-term short memory (LSTM) were developed for the estimation of the SPEIs. Seven scenarios of various combinations of climate variables as input were adopted to build the models. The best models were XGB with scenario 5 (precipitation, average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, wind speed and relative humidity) and RF with scenario 6 (precipitation, average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and sunshine) for estimating SPEI-3. LSTM with scenario 4 (precipitation, average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, wind speed) was relatively better for SPEI-6 estimation. The best model for SPEI-6 was XGB with scenario 5 and RF with scenario 7 (all input climate variables, i.e., scenario 6 + solar radiation). Based on the NSE index, the performances of XGB and RF models are classified as good fits for scenarios 4 to 7 for both timescales. The developed models produced satisfactory results and they could be used as a rapid tool for decision making by water-managers.

Drought is a fundamental physical feature of the climate pattern worldwide. Over the past few decades, a natural disaster has accelerated its occurrence, which has significantly impacted agricultural systems, economies, environments, water resources, and supplies. Therefore, it is essential to develop new techniques that enable comprehensive determination and observations of droughts over large areas with satisfactory spatial and temporal resolution. This study modeled a new drought index called the Combined Terrestrial Evapotranspiration Index (CTEI), developed in the Ganga river basin. For this, five Machine Learning (ML) techniques, derived from artificial intelligence theories, were applied: the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm, decision trees, Matern 5/2 Gaussian process regression, boosted trees, and bagged trees. These techniques were driven by twelve different models generated from input combinations of satellite data and hydrometeorological parameters. The results indicated that the eighth model performed best and was superior among all the models, with the SVM algorithm resulting in an R² value of 0.82 and the lowest errors in terms of the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) (0.33) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) (0.20), followed by the Matern 5/2 Gaussian model with an R² value of 0.75 and RMSE and MAE of 0.39 and 0.21 mm/day, respectively. Moreover, among all the five methods, the SVM and Matern 5/2 Gaussian methods were the best-performing ML algorithms in our study of CTEI predictions for the Ganga basin.

Soils in the coastal region of Syria (CRoS) are one of the most fragile components of natural ecosystems. However, they are adversely affected by water erosion processes after extreme land cover modifications such as wildfires or intensive agricultural activities. The main goal of this research was to clarify the dynamic interaction between erosion processes and different ecosystem components (inclination, land cover/land use, and rainy storms) along with the vulnerable territory of the CRoS. Experiments were carried out in five different locations using a total of 15 erosion plots. Soil loss and runoff were quantified in each experimental plot, considering different inclinations and land uses (agricultural land (AG), burnt forest (BF), forest/control plot (F)). Observed runoff and soil loss varied greatly according to both inclination and land cover after 750 mm of rainfall (26 events). In the cultivated areas, the average soil water erosion ranged between 0.14 ± 0.07 and 0.74 ± 0.33 kg/m²; in the BF plots, mean soil erosion ranged between 0.03 ± 0.01 and 0.24 ± 0.10 kg/m². The lowest amount of erosion was recorded in the F plots where the erosion ranged between 0.1 ± 0.001 and 0.07 ± 0.03 kg/m². Interestingly, the General Linear Model revealed that all factors (i.e., inclination, rainfall and land use) had a significant (p < 0.001) effect on the soil loss. We concluded that human activities greatly influenced soil erosion rates, being higher in the AG lands, followed by BF and F. Therefore, the current study could be very useful to policymakers and planners for proposing immediate conservation or restoration plans in a less studied area which has been shown to be vulnerable to soil erosion processes.

There are limited literature on the impacts of drought on crop yields in warm regions such as southwest China. Drought vulnerability of four different crops (wheat, rice, maize and sugarcane) cultivated in three provinces (Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan) within southwest China were investigated in this study. It was based on the drought index of standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for ‐3‐ and ‐6 months timescales (SPEI‐3 and SPEI‐6). The correlation between the SPEI and the standardized yield residuals series index for the individual crops was estimated for the period from 1960 to 2018. The highest drought duration was recorded in the southern part of the study area especially in the Yunnan Province. For SPEI‐3, 60% of the total area was affected by drought mainly during the months from August to December for about 13 years (2005–2018). In terms of SPEI‐6, the total affected area by the drought exceeded 80% during the timeframe from 2009 to 2013. Among the studied crops, winter wheat had the highest annual crop yield losses particularly in 2010 when the loss exceeded 50%. The results of this study have implications for agricultural management and climate policymaking in minimizing the influence of drought under the warming climate in southwest China. Further, it provides greater insight into crop–climate interactions and sustainable crop production.