The North China Plain is one of the most important grain production regions in China, but is facing serious water shortages. To achieve a balance between water use and the need for food self-sufficiency, new water efficient irrigation strategies need to be developed that balance water use with farmer net return. The Crop Environment Resource Synthesis Wheat (CERES-Wheat model) was calibrated and evaluated with two years of data which consisted of 3–4 irrigation treatments, and the model was used to investigate long-term winter wheat productivity and water use from irrigation management in the North China Plain. The calibrated model simulated accurately above-ground biomass, grain yield and evapotranspiration of winter wheat in response to irrigation management. The calibrated model was then run using weather data from 1994–2016 in order to evaluate different irrigation strategies. The simulated results using historical weather data showed that grain yield and water use was sensitive to different irrigation strategies including amounts and dates of irrigation applications. The model simulated the highest yield when irrigation was applied at jointing (T9) in normal and dry rainfall years, and gave the highest simulated yields for irrigation at double ridge (T8) in wet years. A single simulated irrigation at jointing (T9) produced yields that were 88% compared to using a double irrigation treatment at T1 and T9 in wet years, 86% of that in normal years, and 91% of that in dry years. A single irrigation at jointing or double ridge produced higher water use efficiency because it obtained higher evapotranspiration. The simulated farmer irrigation practices produced the highest yield and net income. When the cost of water was taken into account, limited irrigation was found to be more profitable based on assumptions about future water costs. In order to increase farmer income, a subsidy will likely be needed to compensate farmers for yield reductions due to water savings. These results showed that there is a cost to the farmer for water conservation, but limiting irrigation to a single irrigation at jointing would minimize impact on farmer net return in North China Plain.