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Vegetation plays a key role in partitioning energy at the surface. Meteorological and Climate Models, both global and regional, implement vegetation using two parameters, the vegetation fraction and the leaf area index, obtained from satellite data. In most cases, models use average values for a given period. However, the vegetation is subject to strong inter-annual variability. In this work, the sensitivity of the near surface air temperature to changes in the vegetation is analyzed using a regional climate model (RCM) over the Iberian Peninsula. The experiments have been designed in a way that facilitates the physical interpretation of the results. Results show that the temperature sensitivity to vegetation depends on the time of year and the time of day. Minimum temperatures are always lower when vegetation is increased; this is due to the lower availability of heat in the ground due to the reduction of thermal conductivity. Regarding maximum temperatures, the role of increasing vegetation depends on the available moisture in the soil. In the case of hydric stress, the maximum temperatures increase, and otherwise decrease. In general, increasing vegetation will lead to a higher daily temperature range, since the decrease in minimum temperature is always greater than the decrease for maximum temperature. These results show the importance of having a good estimate of the vegetation parameters as well as the implications that vegetation changes due to natural or anthropogenic causes might have in regional climate for present and climate change projections.
Jose Jiménez-Gutiérrez; Francisco Valero; Jesús Ruiz-Martínez; Juan Montávez. Temperature Response to Changes in Vegetation Fraction Cover in a Regional Climate Model. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 599 .
AMA StyleJose Jiménez-Gutiérrez, Francisco Valero, Jesús Ruiz-Martínez, Juan Montávez. Temperature Response to Changes in Vegetation Fraction Cover in a Regional Climate Model. Atmosphere. 2021; 12 (5):599.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJose Jiménez-Gutiérrez; Francisco Valero; Jesús Ruiz-Martínez; Juan Montávez. 2021. "Temperature Response to Changes in Vegetation Fraction Cover in a Regional Climate Model." Atmosphere 12, no. 5: 599.
High resolution climate model simulations for the last millennium were used to elucidate the main winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric pattern during enhanced Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT-type) events, a situation in which an additional overturning cell is detected in the Mediterranean at the Aegean Sea. The differential upward heat flux between the Aegean Basin and the Gulf of Lions was taken as a proxy of EMT-type events and correlated with winter mean geopotential height at 500 mb in the Northern Hemisphere (200 N-900 N and 1000 W-800 E). Correlations revealed a pattern similar to the Eastern Atlantic/Western Russian (EA/WR) mode as the main driver of EMT-type events, with the past 1000 yr of EA/WR-like mode simulations being enhanced during insolation minima. Our model results are consistent with alkenone Sea Surface Temperature (SST) reconstructions that documented an increase in the west-east basin gradients during EMT-type events.
Aleix Cortina-Guerra; Juan José Gomez-Navarro; Belen Martrat; Juan Pedro Montávez; Alessandro Incarbona; Joan O. Grimalt; Marie-Alexandrine Sicre; P. Graham Mortyn. Northern Hemisphere atmospheric pattern enhancing Eastern Mediterranean Transient-type events during the past 1000 years. 2021, 2021, 1 -16.
AMA StyleAleix Cortina-Guerra, Juan José Gomez-Navarro, Belen Martrat, Juan Pedro Montávez, Alessandro Incarbona, Joan O. Grimalt, Marie-Alexandrine Sicre, P. Graham Mortyn. Northern Hemisphere atmospheric pattern enhancing Eastern Mediterranean Transient-type events during the past 1000 years. . 2021; 2021 ():1-16.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAleix Cortina-Guerra; Juan José Gomez-Navarro; Belen Martrat; Juan Pedro Montávez; Alessandro Incarbona; Joan O. Grimalt; Marie-Alexandrine Sicre; P. Graham Mortyn. 2021. "Northern Hemisphere atmospheric pattern enhancing Eastern Mediterranean Transient-type events during the past 1000 years." 2021, no. : 1-16.
The amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface can be highly determined by atmospheric aerosols, which have been pointed to as the most uncertain climate forcing agents through their direct (scattering and absorption), semi-direct (absorption implying a thermodynamic effect on clouds) and indirect (modification of cloud properties when aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei) effects. Nonetheless, regional climate models hardly ever dynamically model the atmospheric concentration of aerosols and their interactions with radiation (ARIs) and clouds (ACIs). The objective of this work is to evince the role of modeling ARIs and ACIs in Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations with fully interactive aerosols (online resolved concentrations) with a focus on summer mean surface downward solar radiation (RSDS) over Europe. Under historical conditions (1991–2010), both ARIs and ACIs reduce RSDS by a few percentage points over central and northern regions. This reduction is larger when only ARIs are resolved, while ACIs counteract the effect of the former by up to half. The response of RSDS to the activation of ARIs and ACIs is mainly led by the aerosol effect on cloud coverage, while the aerosol effect on atmospheric optical depth plays a very minor role, which evinces the importance of semi-direct and indirect aerosol effects. In fact, differences in RSDS among experiments with and without aerosols are smaller under clear-sky conditions. In terms of future projections (2031–2050 vs. 1991–2010), the baseline pattern (from an experiment without aerosols) shows positive signals southward and negative signals northward. While ARIs enhance the former and reduce the latter, ACIs work in the opposite direction and provide a flatter RSDS change pattern, further evincing the opposite impact from semi-direct and indirect effects and the nontrivial influence of the latter.
Sonia Jerez; Laura Palacios-Peña; Claudia Gutiérrez; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero; Jose María López-Romero; Enrique Pravia-Sarabia; Juan Pedro Montávez. Sensitivity of surface solar radiation to aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions over Europe in WRFv3.6.1 climatic runs with fully interactive aerosols. Geoscientific Model Development 2021, 14, 1533 -1551.
AMA StyleSonia Jerez, Laura Palacios-Peña, Claudia Gutiérrez, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Jose María López-Romero, Enrique Pravia-Sarabia, Juan Pedro Montávez. Sensitivity of surface solar radiation to aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions over Europe in WRFv3.6.1 climatic runs with fully interactive aerosols. Geoscientific Model Development. 2021; 14 (3):1533-1551.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSonia Jerez; Laura Palacios-Peña; Claudia Gutiérrez; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero; Jose María López-Romero; Enrique Pravia-Sarabia; Juan Pedro Montávez. 2021. "Sensitivity of surface solar radiation to aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions over Europe in WRFv3.6.1 climatic runs with fully interactive aerosols." Geoscientific Model Development 14, no. 3: 1533-1551.
The Mediterranean Basin is nowadays considered as one of the most vulnerable areas worldwide to extreme climate/weather events, especially those related to photochemical pollution (tropospheric ozone) and extreme temperatures (e.g. heatwaves). Heatwaves and air pollution have a high impact on society, both from a health and an economical perspective, leading to increases on heat stroke hospital admissions and mortality. For this reason, heatwaves and their associated ozone pollution have to be taken into account for dwellers welfare.
In addition, in recent years, it has become increasingly clear that climatic or meteorological impacts often result from the compounding nature of several variables and/or events, even if they are not extreme when analysed independently. Such compound events can lead to socio-economic damage exceeding that expected if the individual hazards were to occur separately. For instance, compound events of heat wave and stagnation display higher temperature than stagnation events or heat wave events alone, so the formation of secondary pollutants like tropospheric ozone is enhanced relative to individual events.
Under this umbrella, this study assesses compound climate events using high-resolution regional chemistry/climate simulations, with the aim of characterizing and quantifying the influence of temperature/pollution compound events on mortality over Europe, with a special focus on the Mediterranean Basin. Model data from the REPAIR and ACEX projects (obtained from simulations with the on-line chemistry/coupled WRF-Chem model) is used in order to check the changes in mortality under both present-observed and future-forced conditions. The results presented in this contribution quantify the important increase in mortality causes associated to cerebrovascular diseases (CEV) and other pathologies during those compound events (especially under future climate change scenarios) with respect to episodes led by single drivers. This increase in mortality is more evident in northern countries in relative terms; and in southern European countries in absolute mortality incidence, since the concurrent presence of heatwaves and high levels of tropospheric ozone will have a higher frequency in future scenarios over the Mediterranean basin.
Patricia Tarín-Carrasco; Laura Palacios-Peña; Juan P. Montávez; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero. Impact of compound events (heatwaves and ozone episodes) on mortality over the Mediterranean basin under climate change scenarios. 2021, 1 .
AMA StylePatricia Tarín-Carrasco, Laura Palacios-Peña, Juan P. Montávez, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero. Impact of compound events (heatwaves and ozone episodes) on mortality over the Mediterranean basin under climate change scenarios. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StylePatricia Tarín-Carrasco; Laura Palacios-Peña; Juan P. Montávez; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero. 2021. "Impact of compound events (heatwaves and ozone episodes) on mortality over the Mediterranean basin under climate change scenarios." , no. : 1.
Enrique Pravia-Sarabia; Juan José Gómez-Navarro; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero; Juan Pedro Montávez. Supplementary material to "Influence of sea salt aerosols on the development of Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones". 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleEnrique Pravia-Sarabia, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Juan Pedro Montávez. Supplementary material to "Influence of sea salt aerosols on the development of Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones". . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEnrique Pravia-Sarabia; Juan José Gómez-Navarro; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero; Juan Pedro Montávez. 2021. "Supplementary material to "Influence of sea salt aerosols on the development of Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones"." , no. : 1.
Medicanes are mesoscale tropical-like cyclones that develop in the Mediterranean basin and represent a great hazard for the coastal population. The skill to accurately simulate them is of utmost importance to prevent economical and personal damages. Medicanes are fuelled by the latent heat released in the condensation process associated to convective activity, which is regulated by the presence and activation of cloud condensation nuclei, originated mainly from sea salt aerosols (SSA) for marine environments. Henceforth, the purpose of this contribution is twofold: assessing the effects of an interactive calculation of SSA on the strengthening and persistence of medicanes; and providing insight on the casuistry and sensitivities around their simulation processes. To this end, a set of simulations has been conducted with a chemistry/meteorology coupled model considering prescribed aerosols (PA) and interactive aerosol concentrations (IA). The results indicate that IA produces longer-lasting and more intense medicanes. Further, the role of the initialization time and nudging strategies for medicane simulations has been explored. Overall, the results suggest that (1) the application of spectral nudging dampens the effects of IA; (2) the initialization time introduces a strong variability on the storm dynamics; and (3) wind-SSA feedback is crucial and should be considered when studying medicanes.
Enrique Pravia-Sarabia; Juan José Gómez-Navarro; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero; Juan Pedro Montávez. Influence of sea salt aerosols on the development of Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones. 2021, 2021, 1 -18.
AMA StyleEnrique Pravia-Sarabia, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Juan Pedro Montávez. Influence of sea salt aerosols on the development of Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones. . 2021; 2021 ():1-18.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEnrique Pravia-Sarabia; Juan José Gómez-Navarro; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero; Juan Pedro Montávez. 2021. "Influence of sea salt aerosols on the development of Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones." 2021, no. : 1-18.
The effect of aerosols on regional climate simulations presents large uncertainties due to their complex and non-linear interactions with a wide variety of factors, including aerosol–radiation (ARI) and aerosol–cloud (ACI) interactions. These interactions are strongly conditioned by the meteorological situation and type of aerosol, but, despite their increase, only a limited number of studies have covered this topic from a regional and climatic perspective. This contribution thus aims to quantify the impacts on precipitation of the inclusion of ARI and ACI processes in regional climate simulations driven by ERA20C reanalysis. A series of regional climatic simulations (for the period 1991–2010) for the Euro-CORDEX domain were conducted including ARI and ARI + ACI (ARCI), establishing as a reference a simulation where aerosols were not included interactively (BASE). The results show that the effects of ARI and ACI on time-mean spatially averaged precipitation over the whole domain are limited. However, a spatial redistribution of precipitation occurs when the ARI and ACI processes are introduced into the model, as well do changes in the precipitation intensity regimes. The main differences with respect to the base-case simulations occur in central Europe, where a decrease in precipitation is associated with a depletion in the number of rainy days and clouds at low level (CLL). This reduction in precipitation presents a strong correlation with the ratio PM2.5∕PM10, since the decrease is especially intense during those events with high values of that ratio (pointing to high levels of anthropogenic aerosols) over central Europe. The precipitation decrease occurs for all ranges of precipitation rates. On the other hand, the model produces an increase in precipitation over the eastern Mediterranean basin associated with an increase in clouds and rainy days when ACIs are implemented. Here, the change is caused by the high presence of PM10 (low PM2.5∕PM10 ratios, pointing to natural aerosols). In this case, the higher amount of precipitation affects only days with low rates of precipitation. Finally, there are some disperse areas where the inclusion of aerosols leads to an increase in precipitation, especially for moderate and high precipitation rates.
José María López-Romero; Juan Pedro Montávez; Sonia Jerez; Raquel Lorente-Plazas; Laura Palacios-Peña; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero. Precipitation response to aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions in regional climate simulations over Europe. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2021, 21, 415 -430.
AMA StyleJosé María López-Romero, Juan Pedro Montávez, Sonia Jerez, Raquel Lorente-Plazas, Laura Palacios-Peña, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero. Precipitation response to aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions in regional climate simulations over Europe. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 2021; 21 (1):415-430.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJosé María López-Romero; Juan Pedro Montávez; Sonia Jerez; Raquel Lorente-Plazas; Laura Palacios-Peña; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero. 2021. "Precipitation response to aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions in regional climate simulations over Europe." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 21, no. 1: 415-430.
This work aims at presenting TITAM, a time-independent tracking algorithm specifically suited for medicanes. In the last decades, the study of medicanes has been repeatedly addressed given their potential to damage coastal zones. Their hazardous associated meteorological conditions have converted them to a major threat. Even though medicane similarities to tropical cyclones have been widely studied in terms of genesis mechanisms and structure, the fact that the former appear in baroclinic environments, as well as the limited extension of the Mediterranean basin, makes them prone to maintaining their warm-cored and symmetric structure for short time periods. Thus, the usage of a measure for the warm-core nature of the cyclone, namely the Hart conditions, is a key factor for successful identification of a medicane. Furthermore, given their relatively small spatial extent, medicanes tend to appear embedded in or to coexist with larger lows. Hence, the implementation of a time-independent methodology, avoiding the search for a medicane based on its location at previous time steps, seems to be fundamental when facing situations of cyclone coexistence. The examples selected showcase how the algorithm presented throughout this paper is useful and robust for the tracking of medicanes. This methodology satisfies the requirements expected for a tracking method of this nature, namely the capacity to track multiple simultaneous cyclones, the ability to track a medicane in the presence of an intense trough inside the domain, the potential to separate the medicane from other similar structures by handling the intermittent loss of structure, and the capability to isolate and follow the medicane center regardless of other cyclones that could be present in the domain. The complete TITAM package, including preprocessing and post-processing tools, is available as free software extensively documented and prepared for its deployment. As a final remark, this algorithm sheds some light on medicane understanding regarding medicane structure, warm-core nature, and the existence of tilting.
Enrique Pravia-Sarabia; Juan José Gómez-Navarro; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero; Juan Pedro Montávez. TITAM (v1.0): the Time-Independent Tracking Algorithm for Medicanes. Geoscientific Model Development 2020, 13, 6051 -6075.
AMA StyleEnrique Pravia-Sarabia, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Juan Pedro Montávez. TITAM (v1.0): the Time-Independent Tracking Algorithm for Medicanes. Geoscientific Model Development. 2020; 13 (12):6051-6075.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEnrique Pravia-Sarabia; Juan José Gómez-Navarro; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero; Juan Pedro Montávez. 2020. "TITAM (v1.0): the Time-Independent Tracking Algorithm for Medicanes." Geoscientific Model Development 13, no. 12: 6051-6075.
Sonia Jerez; Laura Palacios-Peña; Claudia Gutiérrez; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero; Jose María López-Romero; Juan Pedro Montávez. Supplementary material to "Gains and losses in surface solar radiation with dynamic aerosols in regional climate simulations for Europe". 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleSonia Jerez, Laura Palacios-Peña, Claudia Gutiérrez, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Jose María López-Romero, Juan Pedro Montávez. Supplementary material to "Gains and losses in surface solar radiation with dynamic aerosols in regional climate simulations for Europe". . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSonia Jerez; Laura Palacios-Peña; Claudia Gutiérrez; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero; Jose María López-Romero; Juan Pedro Montávez. 2020. "Supplementary material to "Gains and losses in surface solar radiation with dynamic aerosols in regional climate simulations for Europe"." , no. : 1.
The solar resource can be highly influenced by clouds and atmospheric aerosol, which has been named by the IPCC as the most uncertainty climate forcing agent. Nonetheless, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) hardly ever model dynamically atmospheric aerosol concentration and their interaction with radiation and clouds, in contrast to Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The objective of this work is to evince the role of the interactively modeling of aerosol concentrations and their interactions with radiation and clouds in Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations with a focus on summer mean surface downward solar radiation (RSDS) and over Europe. The results show that the response of RSDS is mainly led by the aerosol effects on cloudiness, which explain well the differences between the experiments in which aerosol-radiation and aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions are taken into account or not. Under present climate, a reduction about 5% in RSDS was found when aerosols are dynamically solved by the RCM, which is larger when only aerosol-radiation interactions are considered. However, for future projections, the inclusion of aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions results in the most negative RSDS change pattern (while with slight values), showing noticeable differences with the projections from either the other RCM experiments or from their driving GCM (which do hold some significant positive signals). Differences in RSDS among experiments are much more softer under clear-sky conditions.
Sonia Jerez; Laura Palacios-Peña; Claudia Gutiérrez; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero; Jose María López-Romero; Juan Pedro Montávez. Gains and losses in surface solar radiation with dynamic aerosols in regional climate simulations for Europe. 2020, 2020, 1 -25.
AMA StyleSonia Jerez, Laura Palacios-Peña, Claudia Gutiérrez, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Jose María López-Romero, Juan Pedro Montávez. Gains and losses in surface solar radiation with dynamic aerosols in regional climate simulations for Europe. . 2020; 2020 ():1-25.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSonia Jerez; Laura Palacios-Peña; Claudia Gutiérrez; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero; Jose María López-Romero; Juan Pedro Montávez. 2020. "Gains and losses in surface solar radiation with dynamic aerosols in regional climate simulations for Europe." 2020, no. : 1-25.
This work aims at presenting TITAM, a time independent tracking algorithm specifically suited for medicanes. In the last decades, the study of medicanes has been repeatedly addressed given their potential to damage coastal zones. Their hazardous associated meteorological conditions have converted them in a major threat. Even though their similarities with tropical cyclones have been studied in terms of genesis mechanisms and structure, the fact that the former ones appear in baroclinic environments make them prone to temporarily lose their warm-cored and symmetric structure. Thus, the usage of a measure for the warm-core nature of the cyclone, namely the Hart conditions, stands as a key factor for a successful identification of the medicane. Furthermore, given their relatively small spatial extent, medicanes tend to appear embedded in or to coexist with larger lows. Hence, the implementation of a time-independent methodology avoiding the search of a medicane basing on its location at previous time steps seems to be fundamental when facing situations of cyclones coexistence. The examples selected showcase how the algorithm presented throughout this paper is useful and robust for the tracking of medicanes. This methodology satisfies the requirements expected for a tracking method of this nature, namely: the capacity to track multiple simultaneous cyclones, the ability to track a medicane in the presence of an intense trough inside the domain, the potential to separate the medicane from other similar structures handling the intermittent loss of structure, and the capability to isolate and follow the medicane center regardless of other cyclones that could be present in the domain. The complete TITAM package, including pre and post processing tools, is available as a free software extensively documented and prepared for its deployment. As a final remark, this algorithm sheds some light on the medicanes understanding, regarding the medicane structure, the warm-core nature and the existence of tilting.
Enrique Pravia-Sarabia; Juan José Gómez-Navarro; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero; Juan Pedro Montávez. TITAM (v1.0): Time Independent Tracking Algorithm for Medicanes. 2020, 2020, 1 -41.
AMA StyleEnrique Pravia-Sarabia, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Juan Pedro Montávez. TITAM (v1.0): Time Independent Tracking Algorithm for Medicanes. . 2020; 2020 ():1-41.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEnrique Pravia-Sarabia; Juan José Gómez-Navarro; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero; Juan Pedro Montávez. 2020. "TITAM (v1.0): Time Independent Tracking Algorithm for Medicanes." 2020, no. : 1-41.
The effect of aerosols on regional climate simulations presents large uncertainties due to their complex and non-linear interactions with a wide variety of factors, including aerosol-radiation (ARI) and aerosol-cloud (ACI) interactions. These interactions are strongly conditioned by the meteorological situation and the type of aerosol. Despite increasing, there is nowadays a very limited number of studies covering this topic from a regional and climatic perspective. Hence, this contribution aims at quantifying the impacts on precipitation of the inclusion of ARI and ACI processes in regional climate simulations driven by ERA20C reanalysis. A series of regional climatic simulations (years 1991–2010) for the Euro-CORDEX domain have been conducted including ARI and ACI, establishing as reference a simulations where aerosols have not been included interactively (BASE). The results show that the effects of ARI and ACI on mean spatially averaged precipitation are limited. However, a spatial redistribution of precipitation occurs when introducing the ARI and ACI processes in the model; as well as some changes in the intensity precipitation regimes. The main differences with respect to the base-case simulations occur in central Europe, where a decrease in precipitation is associated with a depletion in the number of rainy days and low clouds. This reduction in precipitation presents a strong correlation with the ratio PM2.5/PM10, since the decrease is specially intense during those events with high values of that ratio (pointing to high levels of anthropogenic aerosols) over the aforementioned area. The precipitation decrease occurs for all ranges of precipitation rates. On the other hand, the model produces an increase in precipitation over the western Mediterranean basin associated with an increase of clouds and rainy days when ACI are implemented. Here the change is caused by the high presence of PM10 (low PM2.5/PM10 ratios, pointing to natural aerosols). In this case, the higher amount of precipitation affects only to those days with low rates of precipitation. Finally, there are some disperse areas were the inclusion of aerosols leads to an increase in precipitation, specially for moderate and high precipitation rates.
José María López-Romero; Juan Pedro Montávez; Sonia Jerez; Raquel Lorente-Plazas; Laura Palacios-Peña; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero. Precipitation response to Aerosol-Radiation and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in Regional Climate Simulations over Europe. 2020, 1 -22.
AMA StyleJosé María López-Romero, Juan Pedro Montávez, Sonia Jerez, Raquel Lorente-Plazas, Laura Palacios-Peña, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero. Precipitation response to Aerosol-Radiation and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in Regional Climate Simulations over Europe. . 2020; ():1-22.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJosé María López-Romero; Juan Pedro Montávez; Sonia Jerez; Raquel Lorente-Plazas; Laura Palacios-Peña; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero. 2020. "Precipitation response to Aerosol-Radiation and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in Regional Climate Simulations over Europe." , no. : 1-22.
The European CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) initiative is a large voluntary effort that seeks to advance regional climate and Earth system science in Europe. As part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), it shares the broader goals of providing a model evaluation and climate projection framework and improving communication with both the General Circulation Model (GCM) and climate data user communities. EURO-CORDEX oversees the design and coordination of ongoing ensembles of regional climate projections of unprecedented size and resolution (0.11° EUR-11 and 0.44° EUR-44 domains). Additionally, the inclusion of empirical-statistical downscaling allows investigation of much larger multi-model ensembles. These complementary approaches provide a foundation for scientific studies within the climate research community and others. The value of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is shown via numerous peer-reviewed studies and its use in the development of climate services. Evaluations of the EUR-44 and EUR-11 ensembles also show the benefits of higher resolution. However, significant challenges remain. To further advance scientific understanding, two flagship pilot studies (FPS) were initiated. The first investigates local-regional phenomena at convection-permitting scales over central Europe and the Mediterranean in collaboration with the Med-CORDEX community. The second investigates the impacts of land cover changes on European climate across spatial and temporal scales. Over the coming years, the EURO-CORDEX community looks forward to closer collaboration with other communities, new advances, supporting international initiatives such as the IPCC reports, and continuing to provide the basis for research on regional climate impacts and adaptation in Europe.
Daniela Jacob; Claas Teichmann; Stefan Sobolowski; Eleni Katragkou; Ivonne Anders; Michal Belda; Rasmus Benestad; Fredrik Boberg; Erasmo Buonomo; Rita M. Cardoso; Ana Casanueva; Ole B. Christensen; Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen; Erika Coppola; Lesley De Cruz; Edouard Davin; Andreas Dobler; Marta Domínguez; Rowan Fealy; Jesus Fernandez; Miguel Angel Gaertner; Markel García-Díez; Filippo Giorgi; Andreas Gobiet; Klaus Goergen; Juan José Gómez-Navarro; Juan Jesús González-Alemán; Claudia Gutiérrez; José M. Gutiérrez; Ivan Güttler; Andreas Haensler; Tomáš Halenka; Sonia Jerez; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero; Richard G. Jones; Klaus Keuler; Erik Kjellström; Sebastian Knist; Sven Kotlarski; Douglas Maraun; Erik Van Meijgaard; Paola Mercogliano; Juan Pedro Montávez; Antonio Navarra; Grigory Nikulin; Nathalie De Noblet-Ducoudré; Hans-Juergen Panitz; Susanne Pfeifer; Marie Piazza; Emanuela Pichelli; Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen; Andreas F. Prein; Swantje Preuschmann; Diana Rechid; Burkhardt Rockel; Raquel Romera; Enrique Sanchez; Kevin Sieck; Pedro M. M. Soares; Samuel Somot; Lidija Srnec; Silje Lund Sørland; Piet Termonia; Heimo Truhetz; Robert Vautard; Kirsten Warrach-Sagi; Volker Wulfmeyer. Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community. Regional Environmental Change 2020, 20, 1 -20.
AMA StyleDaniela Jacob, Claas Teichmann, Stefan Sobolowski, Eleni Katragkou, Ivonne Anders, Michal Belda, Rasmus Benestad, Fredrik Boberg, Erasmo Buonomo, Rita M. Cardoso, Ana Casanueva, Ole B. Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Erika Coppola, Lesley De Cruz, Edouard Davin, Andreas Dobler, Marta Domínguez, Rowan Fealy, Jesus Fernandez, Miguel Angel Gaertner, Markel García-Díez, Filippo Giorgi, Andreas Gobiet, Klaus Goergen, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Claudia Gutiérrez, José M. Gutiérrez, Ivan Güttler, Andreas Haensler, Tomáš Halenka, Sonia Jerez, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Richard G. Jones, Klaus Keuler, Erik Kjellström, Sebastian Knist, Sven Kotlarski, Douglas Maraun, Erik Van Meijgaard, Paola Mercogliano, Juan Pedro Montávez, Antonio Navarra, Grigory Nikulin, Nathalie De Noblet-Ducoudré, Hans-Juergen Panitz, Susanne Pfeifer, Marie Piazza, Emanuela Pichelli, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Andreas F. Prein, Swantje Preuschmann, Diana Rechid, Burkhardt Rockel, Raquel Romera, Enrique Sanchez, Kevin Sieck, Pedro M. M. Soares, Samuel Somot, Lidija Srnec, Silje Lund Sørland, Piet Termonia, Heimo Truhetz, Robert Vautard, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, Volker Wulfmeyer. Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community. Regional Environmental Change. 2020; 20 (2):1-20.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDaniela Jacob; Claas Teichmann; Stefan Sobolowski; Eleni Katragkou; Ivonne Anders; Michal Belda; Rasmus Benestad; Fredrik Boberg; Erasmo Buonomo; Rita M. Cardoso; Ana Casanueva; Ole B. Christensen; Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen; Erika Coppola; Lesley De Cruz; Edouard Davin; Andreas Dobler; Marta Domínguez; Rowan Fealy; Jesus Fernandez; Miguel Angel Gaertner; Markel García-Díez; Filippo Giorgi; Andreas Gobiet; Klaus Goergen; Juan José Gómez-Navarro; Juan Jesús González-Alemán; Claudia Gutiérrez; José M. Gutiérrez; Ivan Güttler; Andreas Haensler; Tomáš Halenka; Sonia Jerez; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero; Richard G. Jones; Klaus Keuler; Erik Kjellström; Sebastian Knist; Sven Kotlarski; Douglas Maraun; Erik Van Meijgaard; Paola Mercogliano; Juan Pedro Montávez; Antonio Navarra; Grigory Nikulin; Nathalie De Noblet-Ducoudré; Hans-Juergen Panitz; Susanne Pfeifer; Marie Piazza; Emanuela Pichelli; Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen; Andreas F. Prein; Swantje Preuschmann; Diana Rechid; Burkhardt Rockel; Raquel Romera; Enrique Sanchez; Kevin Sieck; Pedro M. M. Soares; Samuel Somot; Lidija Srnec; Silje Lund Sørland; Piet Termonia; Heimo Truhetz; Robert Vautard; Kirsten Warrach-Sagi; Volker Wulfmeyer. 2020. "Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community." Regional Environmental Change 20, no. 2: 1-20.
Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) represent one of the most important sources of uncertainties in climate modelling. In this sense, realistic simulations of ACI are needed for a better understanding of the complex interactions between air pollution and the climate system. This work quantifies the added value of including ACI in an online coupled climate/chemistry model (WRF-Chem, 0.44 ∘ horizontal resolution, years 2003 to 2010) in order to assess whether there is an improvement in the representation of aerosol optical depth (AOD). Modelling results for each species have been evaluated against the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis, and AOD at 675 nm has been compared to AERONET data. Results indicate that the improvements of the monthly biases are around 8% for total AOD550 when including ACI, reaching 20% for the monthly bias in AOD550 coming from dust. Moreover, the temporal representation of AOD550 largely improves (increase in the Pearson time correlation coefficients), ranging from 6% to 20% depending on the chemical species considered. The benefits from this improvement overcome the problems derived from the high computational time required in ACI simulations (eight times higher with respect to simulations not including aerosol-cloud interactions).
Laura Palacios-Peña; Juan P. Montávez; José M. López-Romero; Sonia Jerez; Juan J. Gómez-Navarro; Raquel Lorente-Plazas; Jesús Ruiz; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero. Added Value of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions for Representing Aerosol Optical Depth in an Online Coupled Climate-Chemistry Model over Europe. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 360 .
AMA StyleLaura Palacios-Peña, Juan P. Montávez, José M. López-Romero, Sonia Jerez, Juan J. Gómez-Navarro, Raquel Lorente-Plazas, Jesús Ruiz, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero. Added Value of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions for Representing Aerosol Optical Depth in an Online Coupled Climate-Chemistry Model over Europe. Atmosphere. 2020; 11 (4):360.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLaura Palacios-Peña; Juan P. Montávez; José M. López-Romero; Sonia Jerez; Juan J. Gómez-Navarro; Raquel Lorente-Plazas; Jesús Ruiz; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero. 2020. "Added Value of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions for Representing Aerosol Optical Depth in an Online Coupled Climate-Chemistry Model over Europe." Atmosphere 11, no. 4: 360.
Regional climate models (RCMs) are usually initialized and driven through the boundaries of their limited area domain by data provided by global models (GCMs). The mismatch between the low‐resolution GCM initial conditions and RCM's high‐resolution introduces physical inconsistencies between the various components of the RCM. These inconsistencies can be resolved by running the RCM during a period that is considered unreliable: the spin‐up period. There is no deterministic definition of the length that the spin‐up period should have. Here we try to provide general guidelines that can be used to the advantage of the community. We base our analysis on WRF simulations over an Euro‐Cordex compliant domain and find that, for 2‐meter temperature and precipitation, rather short spin‐up periods (1 week) can be sufficient. Nevertheless, longer periods (6 months) are advisable, and start dates in non‐winter months should be pursued, as this ensures a more realistic representation of the snow cover. Thus, the issue is not only about the spin‐up length. As the soil sub‐system evolves slowly and requires longer periods to reach equilibrium than the longest considered here (1 year), seasonality plays an important role in minimizing the impact of the unreliability of the soil initialisation. Fortunately, except for goals where the deep soil‐atmosphere feedbacks are critical, the lack of equilibrium between them can be ignored, as it seems to have little effect on the simulation of the atmospheric variables most frequently used in RCM studies.
Sonia Jerez; Jose María López‐Romero; Marco Turco; Raquel Lorente‐Plazas; Juan José Gómez-Navarro; Pedro Jiménez‐Guerrero; Juan Pedro Montávez. On the Spin‐Up Period in WRF Simulations Over Europe: Trade‐Offs Between Length and Seasonality. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 2020, 12, 1 .
AMA StyleSonia Jerez, Jose María López‐Romero, Marco Turco, Raquel Lorente‐Plazas, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Pedro Jiménez‐Guerrero, Juan Pedro Montávez. On the Spin‐Up Period in WRF Simulations Over Europe: Trade‐Offs Between Length and Seasonality. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 2020; 12 (4):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSonia Jerez; Jose María López‐Romero; Marco Turco; Raquel Lorente‐Plazas; Juan José Gómez-Navarro; Pedro Jiménez‐Guerrero; Juan Pedro Montávez. 2020. "On the Spin‐Up Period in WRF Simulations Over Europe: Trade‐Offs Between Length and Seasonality." Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 12, no. 4: 1.
Juan Pedro Montavez; Antonio Juarez-Martinez; Alejandro García-López; Amar Halifa-Marin; Enrique Pravia-Sarabia; Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero. A full forecast system of air quality for the South East of the Iberian Peninsula. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleJuan Pedro Montavez, Antonio Juarez-Martinez, Alejandro García-López, Amar Halifa-Marin, Enrique Pravia-Sarabia, Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero. A full forecast system of air quality for the South East of the Iberian Peninsula. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJuan Pedro Montavez; Antonio Juarez-Martinez; Alejandro García-López; Amar Halifa-Marin; Enrique Pravia-Sarabia; Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero. 2020. "A full forecast system of air quality for the South East of the Iberian Peninsula." , no. : 1.
Since the early 1980s, several studies have noticed an abrupt decrease of inflows in the main reservoirs of the western Mediterranean basin. This decline has been more noticeable in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) during the extended winter season (DJFM) where mean inflows decreased until 40% during 1981-2010 compared to 1951-1980. Higher inflows reductions have been found over the western IP where precipitation is mainly modulated by Atlantic fronts. Several plausible causes have been attributed to this phenomenon; changes in land uses, improved datasets or changes in the atmospheric dynamics, among others.
In this work, we assess what is the role of the changes in the large-scale to induce the eighties abrupt precipitation decrease. The analysis consists on the computation of the Wintertime Circulation Types (WCTs) during 1951-2010 using the SLP from ERA20C Reanalysis over a window encompassing the North Atlantic and the Western Europe (-30W, 30E, 65N, 25S). The precipitation associated to these WCTs is analysed using the high-resolution database SPREAD (Serrano-Notivoli et al., 2018). Results show that retaining a group of WCTs may be enough to represent the synoptic situations during reference period over the target region. The frequency of some anticyclonic WCTs (associated with a high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula) showed a significant positive trend for 1951-2010. In contrast, WCTs associated with Atlantic fronts had a significant negative trend. The WCTs promoting westerly flow lead close to the 50% of the annual precipitation over western and central IP during 1951-2010. Then, an abrupt decrease of the frequency of these WCTs directly affects to the precipitation decline in this region (~200 mm). In contrast, the abrupt increase of the anticyclonic WCTs lead to an increase of the precipitation over the eastern IP (~50 mm). Similar significant abrupt shift in precipitation was observed during WCTS associated with cyclones and anticyclones. These results are in agreement with Gómez-Martínez et al. (2018) who found evident links between an increasing NAO index and the decreasing inflows in two basins of the Iberian Peninsula.
Henceforth, there is a need to fulfil the lack of scientific knowledge regarding this abrupt shift in the hydrological resources of the western Mediterranean basin. Precisely, the results of this study shed some light on the causes for the decrease of inflows and run-off over this area and whether they are driven by changes in the regional atmospheric circulation since the early 1980s, related to the internal variability or a global warming forcing. Hence, these results will enable us to identify mitigation and adaptation policies for optimizing the water management.
References
Gómez-Martínez, G., et al. Water Resources Management, 32(8), 2717–2734, doi:10.1007/s11269-018-1954-0, 2018.
Serrano-Notivoli, R., et al. Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 721-738, doi:10.5194/essd-9-721-2017, 2017.
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the ACEX project (CGL2017-87921-R) of the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad of Spain. A.H.M. thanks his predoctoral contract FPU18/00824 to the Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades of Spain. R.L.P. thanks to the University of Murcia for her postdoctoral contract, and her contract PTQ2018-010275 with Torres Quevedo Program founded by Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades of Spain.
Amar Halifa Marín; Raquel Lorente-Plazas; Juan Andrés García-Valero; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero; Juan Pedro Montávez. Understanding the climate-driven role in the abrupt eighties shift of Iberian hydrological resources. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleAmar Halifa Marín, Raquel Lorente-Plazas, Juan Andrés García-Valero, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Juan Pedro Montávez. Understanding the climate-driven role in the abrupt eighties shift of Iberian hydrological resources. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAmar Halifa Marín; Raquel Lorente-Plazas; Juan Andrés García-Valero; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero; Juan Pedro Montávez. 2020. "Understanding the climate-driven role in the abrupt eighties shift of Iberian hydrological resources." , no. : 1.
We present and test a parsimonious model to help designing optimized wind and photovoltaic fleets, e.g. guaranteeing that the renewable production closely follows the electricity demand curve or any other optimization criteria. First, time-series of weather variables, from high-resolution gridded datasets, are transformed into time-series of wind and PV power potential production, which can be seen as capacity factor (CF) estimates. Second, a combination of hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering is performed to identify regions with similar temporal variability of the CF series. Third, a linear combination of the resulting mean regional CF series is constructed to be fitted, for instance, to get the best production-demand adjustment, or under alternative optimization criteria such as minimum cost of installations that guarantee a certain supply. The coefficients obtained for each CF series after the fitting or optimization exercise, to which the condition of being zero or positive must be imposed and which, optionally, could be individually forced to vary within a certain range, will indicate the optimum amount of installed power capacity needed in the each region under the chosen optimization criteria. Illustrating the method, it has been applied over Europe at the monthly time-scale using the ERA5 reanalysis, but its applicability in other spatial and temporal scales is immediate. The results support its utility to design optimized renewable energy scenarios.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This work is supported by the projects CLIMAX (20642/JLI/18) funded by the Fundación Séneca – Agencia de Ciencia y Tecnología de la Región de Murcia, and EASE (RTI2018-100870-A-I00) funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities.
Sonia Jerez; Javier Mellado-Cano; Raquel Lorente-Plazas; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero; Juan Andrés García-Valero; Juan Pedro Montávez. Evaluation and applicability of the spatio-temporal complementarity of the solar and wind resources for the optimized design of renewable energy scenarios. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleSonia Jerez, Javier Mellado-Cano, Raquel Lorente-Plazas, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Juan Andrés García-Valero, Juan Pedro Montávez. Evaluation and applicability of the spatio-temporal complementarity of the solar and wind resources for the optimized design of renewable energy scenarios. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSonia Jerez; Javier Mellado-Cano; Raquel Lorente-Plazas; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero; Juan Andrés García-Valero; Juan Pedro Montávez. 2020. "Evaluation and applicability of the spatio-temporal complementarity of the solar and wind resources for the optimized design of renewable energy scenarios." , no. : 1.
Enrique Pravia-Sarabia; Juan José Gómez-Navarro; Juan Pedro Montávez; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero. A new tracking algorithm for cyclones with tropical characteristics in the Mediterranean basin. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleEnrique Pravia-Sarabia, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Juan Pedro Montávez, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero. A new tracking algorithm for cyclones with tropical characteristics in the Mediterranean basin. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEnrique Pravia-Sarabia; Juan José Gómez-Navarro; Juan Pedro Montávez; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero. 2020. "A new tracking algorithm for cyclones with tropical characteristics in the Mediterranean basin." , no. : 1.
The increase in societal exposure and vulnerability to drought, call to move from post-crisis to pre-impact drought risk management. Accurate and timely information of evolving drought conditions is crucial to take early actions to avoid devastating long-term impacts. A previous study indicated that a statistical empirical method, the ensemble streamflow prediction system (ESP; an ensemble based on reordering historical data), represents a computationally fast alternative to dynamical prediction applications for drought prediction (Turco et al. 2017). Extending this work, here we present an assessment of the ability of the ESP method in predicting the drought of 2017 in Spain considering also the uncertainties coming from the observations. For this, four different datasets are used: that cover a period of 36 years (1981-2017) and with a spatial resolution of 0.25 x 0.25º based on observations of interpolated stations (E-OBS, AEMET), on reanalysis data (ERA5), and on combining stations and satellite data (CHIRPS). Meteorological droughts are defined using the Standardized Precipitation Index aggregated over the months April–September. All the datasets show a similar spatial pattern, with most of the domain suffering extreme drought conditions. In addition, the ESP system achieves reasonable skill in predicting this drought event 2 months in advance with, again, similar pattern among the different datasets. These results suggest the feasibility of the development of an operational early warning system, also considering that the data of CHIRPS and ERA5 are updated every month, i.e., that are available for near-real time applications.
References
Turco, M., et al. (2017). Summer drought predictability over Europe: empirical versus dynamical forecasts. Environmental Research Letters, 12(8), 084006.
Acknowledgments
The authors acknowledge the ACEX project (CGL2017-87921-R) of the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad of Spain. AHM thanks his predoctoral contract FPU18/00824 to the Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades of Spain. M.T. has received funding from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities through the project PREDFIRE (RTI2018-099711-J-I00).
Miguel Ángel Torres Vázquez; Amar Halifa Marín; Juan Pedro Montávez; Marco Turco. Monitoring and predicting the outstanding 2017 drought in Spain. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleMiguel Ángel Torres Vázquez, Amar Halifa Marín, Juan Pedro Montávez, Marco Turco. Monitoring and predicting the outstanding 2017 drought in Spain. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMiguel Ángel Torres Vázquez; Amar Halifa Marín; Juan Pedro Montávez; Marco Turco. 2020. "Monitoring and predicting the outstanding 2017 drought in Spain." , no. : 1.