▪ Abstract The increase in obesity worldwide will have an important impact on the global incidence of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes mellitus, cancer, osteoarthritis, work disability, and sleep apnea. Obesity has a more pronounced impact on morbidity than on mortality. Disability due to obesity-related cardiovascular diseases will increase particularly in industrialized countries, as patients survive cardiovascular diseases in these countries more often than in nonindustrialized countries. Disability due to obesity-related type 2 diabetes will increase particularly in industrializing countries, as insulin supply is usually insufficient in these countries. As a result, in these countries, an increase in disabling nephropathy, arteriosclerosis, neuropathy, and retinopathy is expected. Increases in the prevalence of obesity will potentially lead to an increase in the number of years that subjects suffer from obesity-related morbidity and disability. A 1% increase in the prevalence of obesity in such countries as India and China leads to 20 million additional cases of obesity. Prevention programs will stem the obesity epidemic more efficiently than weight-loss programs. However, only a few prevention programs have been developed or implemented, and the success rates reported to date have been low. Obesity prevention programs should be high on the scientific and political agenda in both industrialized and industrializing countries.

The consumption of beverages that contain sugar is associated with overweight, possibly because liquid sugars do not lead to a sense of satiety, so the consumption of other foods is not reduced. However, data are lacking to show that the replacement of sugar-containing beverages with noncaloric beverages diminishes weight gain.

Objective: To determine the frequency of cardiovascular risk factors in people categorised by previously defined “action g126 levels” of waist circumference. Design: Prevalence study in a random population sample. Setting: Netherlands. Subjects: 2183 men and 2698 women aged 20-59 years selected at random from the civil registry of Amsterdam and Maastricht. Main outcome measures: Waist circumference, waist to hip ratio, body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m ² )), total plasma cholesterol concentration, high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration, blood pressure, age, and lifestyle. Results: A waist circumference exceeding 94 cm in men and 80 cm in women correctly identified subjects with body mass index of >/=25 and waist to hip ratios >/=0.95 in men and >/=0.80 in women with a sensitivity and specificity of >/=96%. Men and women with at least one cardiovascular risk factor (total cholesterol >/=6.5 mmol/l, high density lipoprotein cholesterol /=160 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure >/=95 mm Hg) were identified with sensitivities of 57% and 67% and specificities of 72% and 62% respectively. Compared with those with waist measurements below action levels, age and lifestyle adjusted odds ratios for having at least one risk factor were 2.2 (95% confidence interval 1.8 to 2.8) in men with a waist measurement of 94-102 cm and 1.6 (1.3 to 2.1) in women with a waist measurement of 80-88 cm. In men and women with larger waist measurements these age and lifestyle adjusted odds ratios were 4.6 (3.5 to 6.0) and 2.6 (2.0 to 3.2) respectively. Conclusions: Larger waist circumference identifies people at increased cardiovascular risks.

Purpose The aim of this paper is to review the evidence of the association between energy balance and obesity. Methods In December 2015, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), Lyon, France convened a Working Group of international experts to review the evidence regarding energy balance and obesity, with a focus on Low and Middle Income Countries (LMIC). Results The global epidemic of obesity and the double burden, in LMICs, of malnutrition (coexistence of undernutrition and overnutrition) are both related to poor quality diet and unbalanced energy intake. Dietary patterns consistent with a traditional Mediterranean diet and other measures of diet quality can contribute to long-term weight control. Limiting consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages has a particularly important role in weight control. Genetic factors alone cannot explain the global epidemic of obesity. However, genetic, epigenetic factors and the microbiota could influence individual responses to diet and physical activity. Conclusion Energy intake that exceeds energy expenditure is the main driver of weight gain. The quality of the diet may exert its effect on energy balance through complex hormonal and neurological pathways that influence satiety and possibly through other mechanisms. The food environment, marketing of unhealthy foods and urbanization, and reduction in sedentary behaviors and physical activity play important roles. Most of the evidence comes from High Income Countries and more research is needed in LMICs.

The prevalence of obesity is increasing at an alarming rate in many parts of the world. About 2 billion people are overweight and one third of them obese. The plight of the most affected populations, like those in high-income countries in North America, Australasia and Europe, has been well publicized. However, the more recent increases in population obesity in low- and middle-income countries that are now increasingly being observed have been less recognized. Based on the existing prevalence and trend data and the epidemiological evidence linking obesity with a range of physical and psychosocial health conditions, it is reasonable to describe obesity as a public health crisis that severely impairs the health and quality of life of people and adds considerably to national health-care budgets. Intersectoral action to manage and prevent obesity is urgently required to reverse current trends.