Study regionHeeia watershed, Oahu, Hawaii, USA.Study focusHydrological models are useful tools for assessing the impact of climate change in watersheds. We evaluated the applicability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in a case study of Heeia, Pacific-island watershed that has highly permeable volcanic soils and suffers from hydrological data scarcity. Applicability of the model was enhanced with several modifications to reflect unique watershed characteristics. The calibrated model was then used to assess the impact of rainfall, temperature, and CO2 concentration changes on the water balance of the watershed.New hydrological insights for the study regionCompared to continental watersheds, the Heeia watershed showed high rainfall initial abstraction due to high initial infiltration capacity of the soils. The simulated and observed streamflows generally showed a good agreement and satisfactory model performance demonstrating the applicability of SWAT for small island watersheds with large topographic, precipitation, and land-use gradients. The study also demonstrates methods to resolve data scarcity issues. Predicted climate change scenarios showed that the decrease in rainfall during wet season and marginal increase in dry season are the main factors for the overall decrease in water balance components. Specifically, the groundwater flow component may consistently decrease by as much as 15% due to predicted rainfall and temperature changes by 2100, which may have serious implications on groundwater availability in the watershed

Evaluating the performance of watershed models is essential for a reliable assessment of water resources, particularly in Pacific island watersheds, where modeling efforts are challenging due to their unique features. Such watersheds are characterized by low water residence time, highly permeable volcanic rock outcrops, high topographic and rainfall spatial variability, and lack of hydrological data. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for hydrological modeling of the Nuuanu area watershed (NAW) and Heeia watershed on the Island of Oahu (Hawaii). The NAW, which had well-distributed rainfall gauging stations within the watershed, was used for comparison with the Heeia watershed that lacked recoded rainfall data within the watershed. For the latter watershed, daily rain gauge data from the neighboring watersheds and spatially interpolated 250 m resolution rainfall data were used. The objectives were to critically evaluate the performance of SWAT under rain gauge data scarce conditions for small-scale watersheds that experience high rainfall spatial variability over short distances and to determine if spatially interpolated gridded rainfall data can be used as a remedy in such conditions. The model performance was evaluated by using the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), the percent bias (PBIAS), and the coefficient of determination (R²), including model prediction uncertainty at 95% confidence interval (95PCI). Overall, the daily observed streamflow hydrographs were well-represented by SWAT when well-distributed rain gauge data were used for NAW, yielding NSE and R² values of > 0.5 and bracketing > 70% of observed streamflows at 95PCI. However, the model showed an overall low performance (NSE and R² ≤ 0.5) for the Heeia watershed compared to the NAW’s results. Although the model showed low performance for Heeia, the gridded rainfall data generally outperformed the rain gauge data that were used from outside of the watershed. Thus, it was concluded that finer resolution gridded rainfall data can be used as a surrogate for watersheds that lack recorded rainfall data in small-scale Pacific island watersheds.

Hydrological modeling is an important tool that can be used to assess water resources’ availability and sustainability that are necessary for food security and ecological health of coastal regions. In this study, we assessed the impacts of land use and climate changes on water balance components (WBCs) of the Heeia coastal wetland. We developed a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to capture the unique characteristics of the Hawaiian Islands, including its volcanic soil’s nature and high initial infiltration rates. We used the sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm to assess the sensitivity and uncertainty of WBCs under different climate change scenarios. Results of the statistical analysis of daily streamflow simulations showed that the model performance was within the generally acceptable criteria. Under future climate scenarios, rainfall change was the determinant factor most negatively impacting WBCs. Recharge and baseflow components had the highest sensitivity to the combined effects of land use and climate changes, especially during dry season. The uncertainty analysis indicated that the streamflow is projected to slightly increase by the middle of 21st century, but expected to decline by 40% during the late 21st century of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5.

Dissolved silicate (DSi) is one of the essential elements of biogeochemical cycles in the coastal zones. It plays a vital role in the preservation of endemic diverse organism's structure like plankton groups. DSi estimation and distribution within coastal aquifer and its fluxes into the ocean has been getting great attention among researchers, managers, and policymakers especially who focus on the coastal environmental health. However, estimating DSi is very challenging due to the fact that the nutrient fluxes magnitude can vary spatially and temporally. In the Hawaiian coastlines, the main sources of DSi are the weathering products of basaltic rock and volcanic ashes, which mainly gets transported to the coast by groundwater flow. In this study, an integrated hydrological modeling approach is considered as a robust way to estimate DSi fluxes both at temporal and spatial scales. The integrated model consists of the SWAT, MODFLOW, and SEAWAT models. Hereto, we also estimated DSi fluxes under different scenarios, such as wetland restoration (LU), climate change (CL), and sea level rise (SLR). While the CL scenarios were run using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for mid and late 21 st century, the SLR of 0.4 and 1.1 meter was assumed. The findings indicated that the average DSi flux under California grassland cover was about 48 moles per day that increased by 15% during the wet season and decreased by 16% during the dry season. The DSi fluxes were highly dependent on fresh submarine groundwater discharge (FSGD). The climate change had a more negative impact on DSi fluxes by 5% when compared to the 1.1 meter of SLR scenario. On the other hand, wetland restoration did not have a significant effect on DSi fluxes. The decrease in DSi fluxes under SLR and climate change had a positive effect on the accumulative storing of DSi within coastal wetland. Overall, the integrated hydrological modeling approach has drawn a comprehensive picture of DSi fluxes and silicate behavior under various conditions within the Heeia coastal zone.

Optimal restoration and management of coastal wetland are contingent on reliable assessment of hydrological processes. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to assess the impacts of a proposed coastal wetland restoration plan on the water balance components of the Heeia watershed (Hawaii). There is a need to optimize between water needs for taro cultivation and accompanying cultural practices, wetland ecosystem services, and streamflow that feeds downstream coastal fishponds and reefs of the Heeia watershed. For this, we completed two land use change scenarios (conversion of an existing California grassland to a proposed taro field and mangroves to a pond in the wetland area) with several irrigation water diversion scenarios at different percent of minimum streamflow values in the reach. The irrigation water diversion scenarios aimed at achieving sustainable growth of the taro crop without compromising streamflow value, which plays a vital role in the health of a downstream fishpond and coastal environment of the watershed. Findings generally suggest that the conversion of a California grassland to a patched taro field is expected to decrease the baseflow value, which was a major source of streamflow for the study area, due to soil layer compaction, and thus decrease in groundwater recharge from the taro field. However, various taro irrigation water application and management scenarios suggested that diverting 50% of the minimum streamflow value for taro field would provide sustainable growth of taro crop without compromising streamflow value and environmental health of the coastal wetland and downstream fishponds.

The integrated hydrological model is a powerful tool that is used to assess the temporal distribution of fresh groundwater discharge especially in coastal areas. The coastal regions of Hawaii are examples of crucial natural resources for the Hawaiian economy and general ecological health. To fully comprehend the intricate interactions between coastal hydrology processes and ecosystems, it is necessary to evaluate the fresh submarine groundwater discharge (FSGD) at the Heeia shoreline using an integrated hydrological modeling technique. Under steady-state settings, the results showed that the present daily average of FSGD is around 0.43 m3/days across 1 m of the shoreline. However, we showed that the FSGD values were considerably impacted by climate change, groundwater head of the coastal aquifer, recharge rate, and sea level rise, particularly by the end of the 21st century. The post-development FSGD fluxes were 1.5–3.5 times greater than the freshwater transported by the Heeia stream, demonstrating the considerable contribution of the FSGD to the coastal zones of Heeia. The results also showed an exponential association between the FSGD and the groundwater level for the coastal unconfined aquifer.