The coupling coordination of urbanization and urban resilience is a key issue for achieving sustainable urban development. Taking 49 prefecture-level and above cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and the Pearl River Delta (PRD)—China’s three major coastal urban agglomerations—as research objects, this paper constructs an evaluation index system for urbanization and urban resilience, and employs the CRITIC–entropy weight composite method, the coupling coordination degree model and kernel density estimation to measure the evolutionary characteristics of coupling coordination between urbanization and urban resilience in the three agglomerations during 2013–2023, and further identifies the key influencing factors using a panel fixed-effects model. The results show that (1) the coupling coordination degree of the three urban agglomerations increased continuously, with the PRD taking the lead in 2023 (0.6650), the YRD ranking second (0.6315) and the BTH ranking third (0.5627); however, their coupling coordination paths diverged markedly, specifically manifesting as a catch-up convergence pattern in the BTH, a balanced advancement pattern in the YRD and a polarization-divergence pattern in the PRD. (2) Opening-up and digital economy development are robust positive drivers of the coupling coordination level, and their positive effects are largely universal across regions; urban population agglomeration and government intervention constitute significant negative constraints, among which the inhibitory effect of government intervention exhibits genuine regional heterogeneity, being most prominent in the YRD, followed by the PRD, while failing the significance test in the BTH; technological innovation fails to pass the significance test; the full-sample effect of spatial structure is insignificant, but its influence exhibits significant regional heterogeneity, with a significantly positive association in the PRD. This study systematically reveals the regional differentiation rules governing the synergistic evolution of urbanization and resilience in the three urban agglomerations, providing empirical support for differentiated policies to promote the deep integrated development of urbanization and urban resilience.

【目的】从城乡融合视角研究老工业城市资源错配问题，可为优化资源配置、促进经济均衡发展提供新策略，有助于推动老工业城市经济转型。【方法】基于2008—2020年中国95个老工业城市面板数据，实证检验了城乡融合对资源错配的总体作用和异质性影响，论证了产业结构转型升级在其中所发挥的传导机制，并利用门槛效应模型探讨了城乡融合对资源错配的动态影响。【结果】①城乡融合有助于改善资源错配。异质性检验发现，城乡融合对不同区域城市和不同等级城市的资源错配均有改善效果，但改善程度存在区域间和城市等级间差异，即东部地区最强，中部次之，西部和东北较弱；二、三线城市强于四、五线城市。②机制分析结果显示，产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化在城乡融合与资源错配之间发挥部分中介效应。当产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化低于第二门槛值，城乡融合会阻碍资源错配的改善；当产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化超出第二门槛值后，城乡融合对资源错配影响由阻碍变为改善。③进一步分析可知，城乡融合政策实施强度在城乡融合发展与资源错配的关系中发挥正向调节作用。【结论】城乡融合通过推动产业结构转型升级显著改善了老工业城市资源错配，其效应受区域差异、城市等级及产业结构转型升级门槛效应的影响，政策实施强度则进一步强化了改善效果。应结合区域特点和城市等级，制定差异化的城乡融合政策，推动产业结构优化和政策精准实施，以全面改善老工业城市资源错配状况。