The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink‐source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO₂ fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO₂ fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high‐latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO₂ fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO₂ fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km²) across the high‐latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE‐focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO₂ sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO₂ budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high‐latitude region was on average an annual CO₂ sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.

Significance: The Arctic is warming rapidly, causing permafrost soils to thaw. Vast stocks of nitrogen (>67 billion tons) in the permafrost, accumulated thousands of years ago, could now become available for decomposition, leading to the release of nitrous oxide (N ₂ O) to the atmosphere. N ₂ O is a strong greenhouse gas, almost 300 times more powerful than CO ₂ for warming the climate. Although carbon dynamics in the Arctic are well studied, the fact that Arctic soils store enormous amounts of nitrogen has received little attention so far. We report that the Arctic may become a substantial source of N ₂ O when the permafrost thaws, and that N ₂ O emissions could occur from surfaces covering almost one-fourth of the entire Arctic.

Wetlands are the single largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH₄), a greenhouse gas, and occur extensively in the northern hemisphere. Large discrepancies remain between “bottom‐up” and “top‐down” estimates of northern CH₄ emissions. To explore whether these discrepancies are due to poor representation of nongrowing season CH₄ emissions, we synthesized nongrowing season and annual CH₄ flux measurements from temperate, boreal, and tundra wetlands and uplands. Median nongrowing season wetland emissions ranged from 0.9 g/m² in bogs to 5.2 g/m² in marshes and were dependent on moisture, vegetation, and permafrost. Annual wetland emissions ranged from 0.9 g m⁻² year⁻¹ in tundra bogs to 78 g m⁻² year⁻¹ in temperate marshes. Uplands varied from CH₄ sinks to CH₄ sources with a median annual flux of 0.0 ± 0.2 g m⁻² year⁻¹. The measured fraction of annual CH₄ emissions during the nongrowing season (observed: 13% to 47%) was significantly larger than that was predicted by two process‐based model ensembles, especially between 40° and 60°N (modeled: 4% to 17%). Constraining the model ensembles with the measured nongrowing fraction increased total nongrowing season and annual CH₄ emissions. Using this constraint, the modeled nongrowing season wetland CH₄ flux from >40° north was 6.1 ± 1.5 Tg/year, three times greater than the nongrowing season emissions of the unconstrained model ensemble. The annual wetland CH₄ flux was 37 ± 7 Tg/year from the data‐constrained model ensemble, 25% larger than the unconstrained ensemble. Considering nongrowing season processes is critical for accurately estimating CH₄ emissions from high‐latitude ecosystems, and necessary for constraining the role of wetland emissions in a warming climate.

Arctic wetlands are known methane (CH₄) emitters but recent studies suggest that the Arctic CH₄ sink strength may be underestimated. Here we explore the capacity of well-drained Arctic soils to consume atmospheric CH₄ using >40,000 hourly flux observations and spatially distributed flux measurements from 4 sites and 14 surface types. While consumption of atmospheric CH₄ occurred at all sites at rates of 0.092 ± 0.011 mgCH₄ m⁻² h⁻¹ (mean ± s.e.), CH₄ uptake displayed distinct diel and seasonal patterns reflecting ecosystem respiration. Combining in situ flux data with laboratory investigations and a machine learning approach, we find biotic drivers to be highly important. Soil moisture outweighed temperature as an abiotic control and higher CH₄ uptake was linked to increased availability of labile carbon. Our findings imply that soil drying and enhanced nutrient supply will promote CH₄ uptake by Arctic soils, providing a negative feedback to global climate change.