This paper presents a review of concepts related to wildfire risk assessment, including the determination of fire ignition and propagation (fire danger), the extent to which fire may spatially overlap with valued assets (exposure), and the potential losses and resilience to those losses (vulnerability). This is followed by a brief discussion of how these concepts can be integrated and connected to mitigation and adaptation efforts. We then review operational fire risk systems in place in various parts of the world. Finally, we propose an integrated fire risk system being developed under the FirEUrisk European project, as an example of how the different risk components (including danger, exposure and vulnerability) can be generated and combined into synthetic risk indices to provide a more comprehensive wildfire risk assessment, but also to consider where and on what variables reduction efforts should be stressed and to envisage policies to be better adapted to future fire regimes. Climate and socio-economic changes entail that wildfires are becoming even more a critical environmental hazard; extreme fires are observed in many areas of the world that regularly experience fire, yet fire activity is also increasing in areas where wildfires were previously rare. To mitigate the negative impacts of fire, those responsible for managing risk must leverage the information available through the risk assessment process, along with an improved understanding on how the various components of risk can be targeted to improve and optimize the many strategies for mitigation and adaptation to an increasing fire risk.
Global, fast and accessible monitoring of biodiversity is one of the main pillars of the efforts undertaken in order to revert it loss. The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO-BON) provided an expert-based definition of the biological properties that should be monitored, the Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs). Initiatives to provide indicators for EBVs rely on global, freely available remote sensing (RS) products in combination with empirical models and field data, and are invaluable for decision making. In this study, we provide alternatives for the expansion and improvement of the EBV indicators, by suggesting current and future data from the European Space Agencýs COPERNICUS and explore the potential of RS-integrated Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) for the estimation of EBVs. Our review found that mainly due to the inclusion of the Sentinel constellation, Copernicus products have similar or superior potential for EBV indicator estimation in relation to their NASA counterparts. DGVMs simulate the ecosystem level EBVs (ecosystem function and structure), and when integrated with remote sensing data have great potential to not only offer improved estimation of current states but to provide projection of ecosystem impacts. We suggest that focus on producing EBV relevant outputs should be a priority within the research community, to support biodiversity preservation efforts.
Agroecosystems play an important role in providing economic and ecosystem services, which directly impact society. Inappropriate land use and unsustainable agricultural management with associated nutrient cycles can jeopardize important soil functions such as food production, livestock feeding, and conservation of biodiversity. The objective of this study was to integrate remotely sensed land cover information into a regional land management model (LMM) to improve the assessment of spatially explicit nutrient balances for agroecosystems. Remotely sensed data and an optimized parameter set contributed to an improved LMM output, allowing for a better land allocation within the model. The best input parameter combination was based on two different land cover classifications with overall accuracies of 98%, improving the land allocation performance compared with using nonspatially explicit input. We conclude that the combined use of remote sensing data and the LMM has the potential to provide valuable guidance for farm practices. It further helps to generate a spatial description of farm-level nutrient balance, a crucial ability when choosing policy options related to sustainable management of agricultural soils.
Bark beetle outbreaks and forest mortality have rocketed in European forests because of warmer winters, intense droughts, and poor management. The methods developed to predict a bark beetle outbreak have three main limitations: (i) a small-spatial-scale implementation; (ii) specific field-based input datasets that are usually hard to obtain at large scales; and (iii) predictive models constrained by coarse climatic factors. Therefore, a methodological approach accounting for a comprehensive set of environmental traits that can predict a bark beetle outbreak accurately is needed. In particular, we aimed to (i) analyze the influence of environmental traits that cause bark beetle outbreaks; (ii) compare different machine learning architectures for predicting bark beetle attacks; and (iii) map the attack probability before the start of the bark beetle life cycle. Random Forest regression achieved the best-performing results. The predicted bark beetle damage reached a high robustness in the test area (F1 = 96.9, OA = 94.4) and showed low errors (CE = 2.0, OE = 4.2). Future improvements should focus on including additional variables, e.g., forest age and validation sites. Remote sensing-based methods contributed to detecting bark beetle outbreaks in large extensive forested areas in a cost-effective and robust manner.