Within the complex framework of anti-COVID-19 health management, where the criteria of diagnostic testing, the availability of public-health resources and services, and the applied anti-COVID-19 policies vary between countries, the reliability and accuracy in the modeling of temporal spread can prove to be effective in the worldwide fight against the disease. This paper applies an exploratory time-series analysis to the evolution of the disease in Greece, which currently suggests a success story of COVID-19 management. The proposed method builds on a recent conceptualization of detecting connective communities in a time-series and develops a novel spline regression model where the knot vector is determined by the community detection in the complex network. Overall, the study contributes to the COVID-19 research by proposing a free of disconnected past-data and reliable framework of forecasting, which can facilitate decision-making and management of the available health resources.
This paper examines how spatial distance affects network topology on empirical data concerning the Global Container Shipping Network (GCSN). The GCSN decomposes into 32 multiplex layers, defined at several spatial levels, by successively removing connections of smaller distances. This multilayer decomposition approach allows studying the topological properties of each layer as a function of distance. The analysis provides insights into the hierarchical structure and (importing and exporting) trade functionality of the GCSN, hub connectivity, several topological aspects, and the distinct role of China in the network’s structure. It also shows that bidirectional links decrease with distance, highlighting the importance of asymmetric functionality in carriers’ operations. It further configures six novel clusters of ports concerning their spatial coverage. Finally, it reveals three levels of geographical scale in the structure of GCSN (where the network topology significantly changes): the neighborhood (local connectivity); the scale of international connectivity (mesoscale or middle connectivity); and the intercontinental market (large scale connectivity). The overall approach provides a methodological framework for analyzing network topology as a function of distance, highlights the spatial dimension in complex and multilayer networks, and provides insights into the spatial structure of the GCSN, which is the most important market of the global maritime economy.
This article studies the topology of the multiplex Greek Aviation Network (GAN) consisting of layers representing networks of the aviation companies that operate in the regional Greek aviation market, by using complex network analysis and empirical techniques. The purpose of the study is to decode the strategic plans of the aviation companies constituting multiplex network's layers and to evaluate which layer contributes more in the composition of the overlaid GAN. Secondarily, this paper evaluates the operational utility of a new centrality measure, named mobility centrality, regarding its ability to quantify the potential that a node attribute induces to the topology of the network. Under an overall assessment, this article advances multilayer network analysis by applying a multivariate regression technique for evaluating in common the participation of each layer to the formation of the overlaid network and it provides insights on transportation management and policy.
The worldwide spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is a complex and multivariate process differentiated across countries, and geographical distance is acceptable as a critical determinant of the uneven spreading. Although social connectivity is a defining condition for virus transmission, the network paradigm in the study of the COVID-19 spatio-temporal spread has not been used accordingly. Toward contributing to this demand, this paper uses network analysis to develop a multidimensional methodological framework for understanding the uneven (cross-country) spread of COVID-19 in the context of the globally interconnected economy. The globally interconnected system of tourism mobility is modeled as a complex network and studied within the context of a three-dimensional (3D) conceptual model composed of network connectivity, economic openness, and spatial impedance variables. The analysis reveals two main stages in the temporal spread of COVID-19, defined by the cutting-point of the 44th day from Wuhan. The first describes the outbreak in Asia and North America, the second stage in Europe, South America, and Africa, while the outbreak in Oceania intermediates. The analysis also illustrates that the average node degree exponentially decays as a function of COVID-19 emergence time. This finding implies that the highly connected nodes, in the Global Tourism Network (GTN), are disproportionally earlier infected by the pandemic than the other nodes. Moreover, countries with the same network centrality as China are early infected on average by COVID-19. The paper also finds that network interconnectedness, economic openness, and transport integration are critical determinants in the early global spread of the pandemic, and it reveals that the spatio-temporal patterns of the worldwide spreading of COVID-19 are more a matter of network interconnectivity than of spatial proximity.
15 March 2019 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Significance: This paper highlights that not all scale-free (SF) networks arise through a Barabási−Albert (BA) preferential attachment process. Although evident from the literature, this fact is often overlooked by many researchers. For this purpose, it is demonstrated, with simulations, that established network measures cannot distinguish between BA networks and other SF networks (random-like and lattice-like) with the same degree distribution. Additionally, it is examined whether an existing self-similarity metric is also capable of distinguishing different SF topologies with the same degree distribution. To contribute to this discrimination, this paper introduces a spectral metric, which is shown to be more capable of distinguishing between different SF topologies with the same degree distribution, in comparison with the existing metrics.