Spring maize (Zea mays L.) is a thermophilic C₄ crop which is sensitive to climate change. This paper provides a detailed assessment of the effect of climate change on the crop from a new perspective, by predicting the probability of the potential distribution of spring maize across China. The affected area of spring maize suitability was identified, and then the affected area was subdivided into the improved area and the deteriorated area. Our results confirmed that there was a detrimental consequence for spring maize suitability under observed climate change from 1961–1990 to 1981–2010. However, our results revealed that warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2 °C were helpful for the suitable area expansion of spring maize. The affected area was smaller under warming scenarios than under historical climate change, revealing that temperature rise alone was not enough to trigger a “tipping point” (a threshold value after which abrupt shifts occur) for spring maize, even if warming is 2 °C above the level of 1961–1990. Our results not only benefit China in the design of mitigation and adaptation strategies, but also provide a theoretical judgement that the impact of global warming on the crop ecosystem is not serious if other climate factors remain unchanged.

The Ecological Conservation Redline (ECR) of China plays an important role in avoiding ecological space occupancy and maintaining regional ecological security. Anji County in Zhejiang Province is one of the first regions to implement the ECR in China. This paper takes Anji County as an example to analyze the effects of ECR. To do this, we first set up two scenarios with the CLUE-S model: a normal land-use development scenario (NLDS) and an ECR implementation scenario (ECRS); then we compare the land use of 2010 and 2015 under NLDS and ECRS. Land use, ecosystem services value (ESV), landscape metrics, and ecological product outputs were compared between the entire county and the ECR areas. The results revealed the following: (1) From 2000 to 2015, the ecological land in Anji County decreased by 4.03%, while it decreased by 1.17% in the ECR areas. (2) In the ECR areas, there was less arable land and construction land of the ECRS than in the NLDS, which indicates the ECR impeded the expansion of construction land and arable land in the ECR areas. (3) The ECR areas account for 39% of Anji County but contribute more than 80% to the ESV of the whole county. During 2000–2015, the ESV of the entire county decreased while the ESV of the ECR areas increased. (4) From 2000 to 2015, whereas landscape fragmentation of the entire county increased, that of ECR areas decreased. (5) Since the ECR’s implementation, Anji County has vigorously developed the bamboo industry, ecological agriculture, the tourism industry, and achieved rapid economic development via industrial restructuring and transformation. On the whole, the ECR has neither adversely affected land development nor economic development but instead has promoted the optimization of the land’s spatial development pattern.