The effects of betel nut chewing, smoking and alcohol on the occurrence of leukoplakia and its malignant transformation to oral carcinoma were quantified in a leukoplakia cohort (n = 435) from one medical centre between 1988 and 1998 in Taiwan. Sixty oral carcinomas were ascertained in this cohort. A case–control study within the leukoplakia cohort was used to study, risk factors. Using the Weibull survival model, the incidence of malignant transformation of leukoplakia was shown to increase with follow-up years. After adjustment for other relevant risk factors, betel nut chewing (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 4.59; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25–16.86) remained a significant risk factor for malignant transformation. Results from the case–control study showed that the adjusted odds ratios for betel nut chewing and smoking on the occurrence of leukoplakia were 17.43 (95% Cl 1.94–156.27) and 3.22 (95% Cl 1.06–9.78), respectively. Similar findings were observed when daily frequency and duration were taken into account. This implies that cessation of smoking may reduce by 36% leukoplakia cases, while elimination of betel nuts may prevent 62% of leukoplakia and 26% of malignant transformation to oral carcinoma in the underlying population. © 2000 Cancer Research Campaign

Background and Purpose. It is important to determine the effect of adherence to a tai chi program on falls and related functional outcomes in older people. This study examined the effect of a community-based tai chi program on injurious falls, balance, gait, and fear of falling among people aged 65 years and older in Taiwan. Subjects and Methods. In 6 rural villages in Taichung County, 1,200 subjects participated in the initial assessment. During a 1-year intervention period, all study villages were provided with education on fall prevention. Two villages had been provided tai chi exercise (n=472 participants or “tai chi villagers”), and 4 villages served as control villages (n=728 participants or “control villagers”). Injurious falls were ascertained by telephone interviews every 3 months over a 2-year study period; additionally, balance, gait, and fear of falling were assessed in 2 follow-up assessments. Results. Eighty-eight subjects, 83 from the tai chi villages and 5 from the control villages, participated and practiced in the tai chi program (the group labeled “tai chi practitioners”). After the tai chi program, injurious falls among the control villagers significantly declined by 44% (adjusted rate ratio [RR]=0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.36–0.92). Compared with the results for the control villagers, the decline was 31% greater (RR=0.69; 95% CI=0.30–1.56) among the tai chi villagers and 50% greater (RR=0.5; 95% CI=0.11–2.17) among the tai chi practitioners; the results did not reach statistical significance. Furthermore, compared with the scores for the control villagers, the scores for the tai chi practitioners increased by 1.8 points (95% CI=0.2–3.4) on the Tinetti Balance Scale and increased by 0.9 point (95% CI=0.1–1.8) on the Tinetti Gait Scale. No significant changes in the fear of falling were detected among the tai chi practitioners, tai chi villagers, and control villagers. Discussion and Conclusion. Tai chi can prevent a decline in functional balance and gait among older people. However, the reduction in injurious falls attained with tai chi did not reach statistical significance; the statistical inefficiency may have resulted partly from the large decline in injurious falls in control villagers. Finally, the unexpected effect of educational intervention on reducing injurious falls in different settings needs to be further examined.

Emergency department (ED) crowding continues to be an important health care issue in modern countries. Among the many crucial quality indicators for monitoring the throughput process, a patient’s length of stay (LOS) is considered the most important one since it is both the cause and the result of ED crowding. The aim of this study is to identify and quantify the influence of different patient-related or diagnostic activities-related factors on the ED LOS of discharged patients. This is a retrospective electronic data analysis. All patients who were discharged from the ED of a tertiary teaching hospital in 2013 were included. A multivariate accelerated failure time model was used to analyze the influence of the collected covariates on patient LOS. A total of 106,206 patients were included for analysis with an overall medium ED LOS of 1.46 (interquartile range = 2.03) hours. Among them, 96% were discharged by a physician, 3.5% discharged against medical advice, 0.5% left without notice, and only 0.02% left without being seen by a physician. In the multivariate analysis, increased age (>80 vs <20, time ratio (TR) = 1.408, p<0.0001), higher acuity level (triage level I vs. level V, TR = 1.343, p<0.0001), transferred patients (TR = 1.350, p<0.0001), X-rays obtained (TR = 1.181, p<0.0001), CT scans obtained (TR = 1.515, p<0.0001), laboratory tests (TR = 2.654, p<0.0001), consultation provided (TR = 1.631, p<0.0001), observation provided (TR = 8.435, p<0.0001), critical condition declared (TR = 1.205, p<0.0001), day-shift arrival (TR = 1.223, p<0.0001), and an increased ED daily census (TR = 1.057, p<0.0001) lengthened the ED LOS with various effect sizes. On the other hand, male sex (TR = 0.982, p = 0.002), weekend arrival (TR = 0.928, p<0.0001), and adult non-trauma patients (compared with pediatric non-trauma, TR = 0.687, p<0.0001) were associated with shortened ED LOS. A prediction diagram was made accordingly and compared with the actual LOS. The influential factors on the ED LOS in discharged patients were identified and quantified in the current study. The model’s predicted ED LOS may provide useful information for physicians or patients to better anticipate an individual’s LOS and to help the administrative level plan its staffing policy.

Background and aims: The effect of metabolic risk factors on the natural course of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD), which remains elusive, was quantified. Methods: The population included 3669 subjects undergoing repeated upper endoscopy. Data were analysed using a three-state Markov model to estimate transition rates (according to the Los Angeles classification) regarding the natural course of the disease. Individual risk score together with the kinetic curve was derived by identifying significant factors responsible for the net force between progression and regression. Results: During three consecutive study periods, 12.2, 14.9 and 17.9% of subjects, respectively, progressed from non-erosive to erosive disease, whereas 42.5, 37.3 and 34.6%, respectively, regressed to the non-erosive stage. The annual transition rate from non-erosive to class A–B disease was 0.151 per person year (95% CI 0.136 to 0.165) and from class A–B to C–D was 0.079 per person year (95% CI 0.063 to 0.094). The regression rate from class A–B to non-erosive disease was 0.481 per person year (95% CI 0.425 to 0.536). Class C–D, however, appeared to be an absorbing state when not properly treated. Being male (relative risk (RR) 4.31; 95% CI 3.22 to 5.75), smoking (RR 1.20; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.39) or having metabolic syndrome (RR 1.75; 95% CI 1.29 to 2.38) independently increased the likelihood of progressing from a non-erosive to an erosive stage of disease and/or lowered the likelihood of disease regression. The short-term use of acid suppressants (RR 0.54; 95% CI 0.39 to 0.75) raised the likelihood of regression from erosive to non-erosive disease. Conclusions: Intraoesophageal damage is a dynamic and migratory process in which the metabolic syndrome is associated with accelerated progression to or attenuated regression from erosive states. These findings have important implications for the design of effective prevention and screening strategies.