This research aimed to evaluate the impact of land cover/use changes on watershed responses and hydrological processes by applying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) distributed hydrologic model to the Buyukcekmece Water Basin of Istanbul Metropolitan city. SWAT model was run for two different scenarios for the 40-year period between 1973 and 2012, after completing calibration procedures under gauge-data scarce conditions. For the first scenario, 1990 dated Land cover/land use (LCLU) map and meteorological data obtained between 1973 and 2012 were used. For the second scenario, 2006 dated LCLU map and same meteorological data were used to analyze the impact of changing landscape characteristics on hydrological processes. In the selected watershed, LCLU changes started towards the end of the 1980s and reached a significant status in 2006; therefore, 1990 and 2006 dated LCLU maps are important to model human impact period in the watershed. Afterwards, LCLU changes within sub-basin level were investigated to quantify the effects of different types of land changes on the major hydrological components such as actual evapotranspiration, percolation, soil water, base flow, surface runoff and runoff. Our analysis indicated that, under the same climatic conditions, changes in land cover/use, specifically urbanization, played a considerable role in hydrological dynamics with changes on actual transpiration, base flow, surface runoff, runoff, percolation and soil water mainly due to urban and agricultural area changes. Among the different hydrological components analyzed at watershed level, percolation, ET and base flow were found to be highly sensitive to LCLU changes, whereas soil water was found as the least sensitive to same LCLU changes.

In this paper we focus on the model setup scheme for medium-size watershed with high resolution, multi-site calibration, and present results on the possible changes of the Minija River in flow, sediment load, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) load in the near-term (up to 2050) and long-term (up to 2099) in the light of climate change (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios) under business-as-usual conditions. The SWAT model for the Minija River basin was setup by using the developed Matlab (SWAT-LAB) scripts for a highly customized watershed configuration that addresses the specific needs of the project objective. We performed the watershed delineation by combining sub-basin and hillslope discretization schemes. We defined the HRUs by aggregating the topographic, land use, soil, and administrative unit features of the area. A multisite manual calibration approach was adopted to calibrate and validate the model, achieving good to satisfactory results across different sub-basins of the area for flow, sediments and nutrient loads (TP and TN). After completing the climate change scenario calculations, we found that a net decrease of flow (up to 35%), TN (up to 34%), and TP (up to 50%) loads are projected under both scenarios. Furthermore, we explored the changes in the streamflow composition and provide new insight on the reason of projected nutrient load decrease.