Significance: Population and assets in coastal regions are threatened by both oceanic and fluvial flooding hazards. Common flood hazard assessment practices typically focus on one flood driver at a time and ignore potential compounding impacts. Here we outline a unique bivariate flood hazard assessment framework that accounts for the interactions between a primary oceanic flooding hazard, coastal water level, and fluvial flooding hazards. Using the notion of “failure probability,” we also assess coastal flood hazard under different future sea level rise scenarios. The results show that, in a warming climate, future sea level rise not only increases the failure probability, but also exacerbates the compounding effects of flood drivers.
Traditional, mainstream definitions of drought describe it as deficit in water‐related variables or water‐dependent activities (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture, surface and groundwater storage, and irrigation) due to natural variabilities that are out of the control of local decision‐makers. Here, we argue that within coupled human‐water systems, drought must be defined and understood as a process as opposed to a product to help better frame and describe the complex and interrelated dynamics of both natural and human‐induced changes that define anthropogenic drought as a compound multidimensional and multiscale phenomenon, governed by the combination of natural water variability, climate change, human decisions and activities, and altered micro‐climate conditions due to changes in land and water management. This definition considers the full spectrum of dynamic feedbacks and processes (e.g., land‐atmosphere interactions and water and energy balance) within human‐nature systems that drive the development of anthropogenic drought. This process magnifies the water supply demand gap and can lead to water bankruptcy, which will become more rampant around the globe in the coming decades due to continuously growing water demands under compounding effects of climate change and global environmental degradation. This challenge has de facto implications for both short‐term and long‐term water resources planning and management, water governance, and policymaking. Herein, after a brief overview of the anthropogenic drought concept and its examples, we discuss existing research gaps and opportunities for better understanding, modeling, and management of this phenomenon.
Compound extremes correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers (e.g., ocean and fluvial flooding, drought, and heat waves) leading to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure. In many risk assessment and design applications, however, multihazard scenarios of extremes and compound events are ignored. In this paper, we review the existing multivariate design and hazard scenario concepts and introduce a novel copula‐based weighted average threshold scenario for an expected event with multiple drivers. The model can be used for obtaining multihazard design and risk assessment scenarios and their corresponding likelihoods. The proposed model offers uncertainty ranges of most likely compound hazards using Bayesian inference. We show that the uncertainty ranges of design quantiles might be large and may differ significantly from one copula model to the other. We also demonstrate that the choice of marginal and copula functions may profoundly impact the multihazard design values. A robust analysis should account for these uncertainties within and between multivariate models that translate into multihazard design quantiles.
The cumulative cost of frequent events (e.g., nuisance floods) over time may exceed the costs of the extreme but infrequent events for which societies typically prepare. Here we analyze the likelihood of exceedances above mean higher high water and the corresponding property value exposure for minor, major, and extreme coastal floods. Our results suggest that, in response to sea level rise, nuisance flooding (NF) could generate property value exposure comparable to, or larger than, extreme events. Determining whether (and when) low cost, nuisance incidents aggregate into high cost impacts and deciding when to invest in preventive measures are among the most difficult decisions for policymakers. It would be unfortunate if efforts to protect societies from extreme events (e.g., 0.01 annual probability) left them exposed to a cumulative hazard with enormous costs. We propose a Cumulative Hazard Index (CHI) as a tool for framing the future cumulative impact of low cost incidents relative to infrequent extreme events. CHI suggests that in New York, NY, Washington, DC, Miami, FL, San Francisco, CA, and Seattle, WA, a careful consideration of socioeconomic impacts of NF for prioritization is crucial for sustainable coastal flood risk management.
Nuisance flooding (NF) refers to low levels of inundation that do not pose significant threats to public safety or cause major property damage, but can disrupt routine day‐to‐day activities, put added strain on infrastructure systems such as roadways and sewers, and cause minor property damage. NF has received some attention in the context of low‐lying coastal cities exposed to increasingly higher high tides, a consequence of sea level rise, which exceeds the heights of coastal topography. However, low levels of flooding are widespread and deserve greater attention. Here a simple, quantitative definition of NF is proposed based on established flood intensity thresholds for flood consequences (e.g., pedestrian safety, property damage, and health risks). Based on a wide range of literature including hydrology, transportation, public health risk, and safety impacts, we define NF based on depth >3 cm and <10 cm, regardless of the source. This definition of NF is not limited to high tide flooding but rather is inclusive of all possible flood drivers including pluvial, fluvial, and oceanic and can capture trends in NF resulting from trends in, and compounding effects of, flood drivers. Furthermore, we also distinguish between NF as a process and NF as an event, which is important for linking NF to societal impacts and developing effective policy interventions and mitigation strategies. Potential applications and implications of NF monitoring are also presented.