The rates of subsea permafrost degradation and occurrence of gas-migration pathways are key factors controlling the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) methane (CH₄) emissions, yet these factors still require assessment. It is thought that after inundation, permafrost-degradation rates would decrease over time and submerged thaw-lake taliks would freeze; therefore, no CH₄ release would occur for millennia. Here we present results of the first comprehensive scientific re-drilling to show that subsea permafrost in the near-shore zone of the ESAS has a downward movement of the ice-bonded permafrost table of ∼14 cm year⁻¹ over the past 31–32 years. Our data reveal polygonal thermokarst patterns on the seafloor and gas-migration associated with submerged taliks, ice scouring and pockmarks. Knowing the rate and mechanisms of subsea permafrost degradation is a prerequisite to meaningful predictions of near-future CH₄ release in the Arctic.

This paper summarizes current understanding of the processes that determine the dynamics of the subsea permafrost–hydrate system existing in the largest, shallowest shelf in the Arctic Ocean; the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS). We review key environmental factors and mechanisms that determine formation, current dynamics, and thermal state of subsea permafrost, mechanisms of its destabilization, and rates of its thawing; a full section of this paper is devoted to this topic. Another important question regards the possible existence of permafrost-related hydrates at shallow ground depth and in the shallow shelf environment. We review the history of and earlier insights about the topic followed by an extensive review of experimental work to establish the physics of shallow Arctic hydrates. We also provide a principal (simplified) scheme explaining the normal and altered dynamics of the permafrost–hydrate system as glacial–interglacial climate epochs alternate. We also review specific features of methane releases determined by the current state of the subsea-permafrost system and possible future dynamics. This review presents methane results obtained in the ESAS during two periods: 1994–2000 and 2003–2017. A final section is devoted to discussing future work that is required to achieve an improved understanding of the subject.

Seeps found offshore in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf may mark zones of degrading subsea permafrost and related destabilization of gas hydrates. Sonar surveys provide an effective tool for mapping seabed methane fluxes and monitoring subsea Arctic permafrost seepage. The paper presents an overview of existing approaches to sonar estimation of methane bubble flux from the sea floor to the water column and a new method for quantifying CH₄ ebullition. In the suggested method, the flux of methane bubbles is estimated from its response to insonification using the backscattering cross section. The method has demonstrated its efficiency in the case study of single- and multi-beam acoustic surveys of a large seep field on the Laptev Sea shelf.

This paper presents the results of an acoustic survey carried out from the fast ice in the shallow waters of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) using a single beam echosounder. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate an improved approach to study seafloor seepages in the Arctic coastal zone with an echosounder calibrated on site. During wintertime field observations of natural rising gas bubbles, we recorded three periods of their increased activity with a total of 63 short-term ejections of bubbles from the seabed. This study presents quantitative estimates of the methane (CH₄) flux obtained in wintertime at two levels of the water column: (1) at the bottom/water interface and (2) at the water/sea ice interface. In winter, the flux of CH₄ transported by rising bubbles to the bottom water in the shallow part of the ESAS was estimated at ~19 g·m⁻² per day, while the flux reaching the water/sea ice interface was calculated as ~15 g·m⁻² per day taking into account the diffusion of CH₄ in the surrounding water and the enrichment of rising bubbles with nitrogen and oxygen. We suggest that this bubble-transported CH₄ flux reaching the water /sea ice interface can be emitted into the atmosphere through numerous ice trenches, leads, and polynyas. This CH₄ ebullition value detected at the water/sea ice interface is in the mid high range of CH₄ ebullition value estimated for the entire ESAS, and two orders higher than the upper range of CH₄ ebullition from the northern thermocarst lakes, which are considered as a significant source to the atmospheric methane budget.

Subsea permafrost stability is the key to whether pre-performed methane sequestered in hydrate deposits escapes to the overlying strata. By making use of the 1D numerical modeling and field data, we analyze the capabilities of the time-domain (transient) electromagnetic method (TDEM) when being applied for subsea permafrost mapping, and study the effect of the background resistivity structure on the inversion models’ accuracy for a series of settings typical for the East Siberian Arctic Shelf—the broadest and shallowest shelf in the world ocean, which represents more than 70% of the subsea permafrost. The synthetic response analysis included the construction of a series of resistivity models corresponding to different settings (presence/absence of ice-bonded permafrost layer, different position of its top and bottom boundaries, different width and thickness of thawed bodies or taliks, variable seawater depth and its resistivity), and calculation of synthetic apparent resistivity responses used to assess their sensitivity to changes in the target parameters of the resistivity structure. This was followed by regularized inversion of synthetic responses and comparing resulting models with original (true) ones, which allowed us to understand the possible uncertainties in the geometry and resistivity of the reconstructed permafrost layer, depending on seawater depth and unfrozen layer thickness, as well as confirm the overall efficacy of TDEM technology for the subsea permafrost imaging. That is crucially important for understanding the current state of the subsea permafrost-hydrate system and possible future dynamics.

The East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) is a key area of CH₄ venting in the Arctic Ocean. The ESAS region stores more than 80% of the world’s predicted subsea permafrost and associated permafrost-related gas hydrates. Gas emissions from subsea permafrost are controlled by its current thermal state, which, in turn, depends on environmental factors. The aim of the manuscript is to show that the thermal state of subsea permafrost and phase transitions of its pore moisture can be estimated remotely by echo soundings, which can resolve the structure of shallow bottom sediments. It has been found that the duration of the seabed acoustic response (echo duration, Δ) at frequencies of 50 and 200 kHz correlates with sediment temperatures and generally increases with cooling below 0.5 °C. This correlation, explained by assuming a layered structure of the bottom sediments, establishes the basis for high-frequency acoustic thermometry. The technique is an advantageous tool for many applications: fast contouring of low-temperature zones, remote measurements of seabed surface temperature, and estimation of the thickness of frozen sediments near the bottom. The latter estimates have implications for the distribution of subsea permafrost and the stability of gas hydrates on the Arctic shelf.