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Dr. Oleg Pavlov
Worcester Polytechnic Institute

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0 Economics
0 System Dynamics
0 Systems Thinking
0 Simulation
0 Feedback Economics

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Simulation
Economics

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Chapter
Published: 01 July 2021 in Towards a Post-Bertalanffy Systemics
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Organized crime satisfies the demand for protection and enforcement of property rights in the absence of effective government institutions. However, weak law enforcement alone cannot explain the cross-regional differences in mafia activity. This chapter develops a feedback model of economic causes for the rise of the Sicilian mafia. Grounded in earlier economic research, the model incorporates causal relationships between the mafia’s activities, predation, law enforcement, and the profitability of the local businesses. The model explains important historical observations such as the emergence of the mafia in wealthier regions and its absence in the poorer districts despite the greater levels of banditry. Using computational experiments with the model, we explore how different factors and feedback effects impact the mafia’s activities.

ACS Style

Oleg V. Pavlov; Jason M. Sardell. Economic Origins of the Sicilian Mafia: A Simulation Feedback Model. Towards a Post-Bertalanffy Systemics 2021, 137 -161.

AMA Style

Oleg V. Pavlov, Jason M. Sardell. Economic Origins of the Sicilian Mafia: A Simulation Feedback Model. Towards a Post-Bertalanffy Systemics. 2021; ():137-161.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Oleg V. Pavlov; Jason M. Sardell. 2021. "Economic Origins of the Sicilian Mafia: A Simulation Feedback Model." Towards a Post-Bertalanffy Systemics , no. : 137-161.

Journal article
Published: 01 April 2021 in Sustainability
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The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on higher education. Steering academic institutions through the pandemic is a complex and multifaceted task that can be supported with model-based scenario analysis. This article studies the short-term and long-term effects of the pandemic on the financial health of a college using scenario analysis and stress testing with a system dynamics model of a representative tuition-dependent college. We find that different combinations of the pandemic mitigation protocols have varying effects on the financial sustainability of an academic institution. By simulating six individual components of the COVID-19 shock, we learn that due to the causal complexity, nonlinear responses and delays in the system, the negative shocks can propagate widely through the college, sometimes with considerable delays and disproportionate effects. Scenario analysis shows that some pandemic mitigation choices may destabilize even financially healthy institutions. The article concludes that higher education needs new sustainable business models.

ACS Style

Oleg Pavlov; Evangelos Katsamakas. COVID-19 and Financial Sustainability of Academic Institutions. Sustainability 2021, 13, 3903 .

AMA Style

Oleg Pavlov, Evangelos Katsamakas. COVID-19 and Financial Sustainability of Academic Institutions. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (7):3903.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Oleg Pavlov; Evangelos Katsamakas. 2021. "COVID-19 and Financial Sustainability of Academic Institutions." Sustainability 13, no. 7: 3903.

Research article
Published: 10 August 2020 in PLOS ONE
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The approaching decline in the U.S. college-age population, sometimes referred to as a “demographic storm,” has been identified as an existential threat to the future of American colleges and universities. This article conducts a model-driven analysis of three plausible college-level responses to declining applications. It draws on systems theory to conceptualize a tuition-dependent college as a complex service system and to develop a system dynamics model that captures key causal interrelationships and multiple feedback effects between faculty, facilities, tuition revenue, financials, reputation, and outcomes. Simulations with the college model suggest that common solutions such as reducing faculty or adding campus facilities may improve the college’s short-term financial position, but they are insufficient to ensure its long-term viability. This model contributes to the research literature on the economics of higher education, and model-driven academic management and strategy. It also provides useful implications and insights that can inform policy-makers and college leaders.

ACS Style

Oleg V. Pavlov; Evangelos Katsamakas. Will colleges survive the storm of declining enrollments? A computational model. PLOS ONE 2020, 15, e0236872 .

AMA Style

Oleg V. Pavlov, Evangelos Katsamakas. Will colleges survive the storm of declining enrollments? A computational model. PLOS ONE. 2020; 15 (8):e0236872.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Oleg V. Pavlov; Evangelos Katsamakas. 2020. "Will colleges survive the storm of declining enrollments? A computational model." PLOS ONE 15, no. 8: e0236872.

Conference paper
Published: 29 December 2018 in Sustainable Transport Development, Innovation and Technology
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This chapter contributes to understanding higher education as a service by applying the service science framework to an undergraduate business program in northern Europe. We utilize the Service Science Canvas, which is a new tool for service science analysis. This innovative academic program relies exclusively on visiting faculty from around the world to teach intensive three-week courses. While access to resources and governance structures were found to be similar to business programs elsewhere, several elements were found to be highly unusual, if not unique. First, the intensive curriculum structure promotes value co-creation among faculty and students. Second, access rights to faculty are negotiated annually, leading to agility but also risk. Third, stakeholder networks are broadly dispersed, but on balance serving as a rich resource for the program. Governance has evolved to ensure quality standards in a constantly changing academic community.

ACS Style

Joan Lofgren; Oleg V. Pavlov; Frank Hoy. Higher Education as a Service: The Science of Running a Lean Program in International Business. Sustainable Transport Development, Innovation and Technology 2018, 53 -60.

AMA Style

Joan Lofgren, Oleg V. Pavlov, Frank Hoy. Higher Education as a Service: The Science of Running a Lean Program in International Business. Sustainable Transport Development, Innovation and Technology. 2018; ():53-60.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Joan Lofgren; Oleg V. Pavlov; Frank Hoy. 2018. "Higher Education as a Service: The Science of Running a Lean Program in International Business." Sustainable Transport Development, Innovation and Technology , no. : 53-60.

Chapter
Published: 17 October 2018 in Global Perspectives on Service Science: Japan
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This article applies the service science framework to higher education. To understand the reasons behind the success and failure of academic programs, we build on the previous literature that suggests that education is a service delivered by universities, which are viewed as complex systems. We contribute to the service science theory by introducing a methodological tool called the Service Science Canvas, which incorporates elements and principles common to all service systems. The Service Science Canvas is a convenient tool for identifying components of academic programs. This article reviews educational programs in entrepreneurship, and, as a case study, it examines an entrepreneurship program at a technological university in the United States.

ACS Style

Oleg V. Pavlov; Frank Hoy. Toward the Service Science of Education. Global Perspectives on Service Science: Japan 2018, 545 -566.

AMA Style

Oleg V. Pavlov, Frank Hoy. Toward the Service Science of Education. Global Perspectives on Service Science: Japan. 2018; ():545-566.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Oleg V. Pavlov; Frank Hoy. 2018. "Toward the Service Science of Education." Global Perspectives on Service Science: Japan , no. : 545-566.

Chapter
Published: 05 June 2018 in Industry 4.0
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This chapter addresses the extension of entrepreneurship education across disciplines and divisions on a university campus. We draw on service science theory to examine how such academic programs may be designed, implemented and assessed. The experience at Worcester Polytechnic Institute in the United States serves as a case study, which we review using the Service Science Canvas, a tool for analysis that incorporates the common elements of service systems. Besides making a methodological contribution to the entrepreneurship literature, the framework developed in this chapter can be used for strategic planning by university leaders and program directors.

ACS Style

Oleg V. Pavlov; Frank Hoy. Entrepreneurship Education as a Service. Industry 4.0 2018, 107 -127.

AMA Style

Oleg V. Pavlov, Frank Hoy. Entrepreneurship Education as a Service. Industry 4.0. 2018; ():107-127.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Oleg V. Pavlov; Frank Hoy. 2018. "Entrepreneurship Education as a Service." Industry 4.0 , no. : 107-127.

Research article
Published: 28 September 2016 in Management Communication Quarterly
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This article proposes a conceptual framework for dissent dynamics in organizations. We integrate the dissent expression and management framework of Kassing with the dynamic institution composition structure of Saeed and Pavlov to construct a generic model for understanding organizational dissent. Our model hypothesizes the impact of dissent accumulation on organizational dissent climate, composition, and performance. Two performance measures comprise the performance grid to describe the current state of an organization and its dissent management policies—perceived management responsiveness and organizational productivity. We argue that dissent expression, tolerance, and management policies affect whether an organization is high or low performing. The conceptual model provides a future platform for experimentation and learning by simulating different policy scenarios and their influence on the paths of change and the new homeostasis eventually achieved by the organization.

ACS Style

Raafat Mahmoud Zaini; Michael B. Elmes; Oleg V. Pavlov; Khalid Saeed. Organizational Dissent Dynamics. Management Communication Quarterly 2016, 31, 258 -277.

AMA Style

Raafat Mahmoud Zaini, Michael B. Elmes, Oleg V. Pavlov, Khalid Saeed. Organizational Dissent Dynamics. Management Communication Quarterly. 2016; 31 (2):258-277.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Raafat Mahmoud Zaini; Michael B. Elmes; Oleg V. Pavlov; Khalid Saeed. 2016. "Organizational Dissent Dynamics." Management Communication Quarterly 31, no. 2: 258-277.

Journal article
Published: 22 June 2016 in Systems Research and Behavioral Science
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This paper reports on a real-life study in a US university. In response to financial issues, the administration at an undergraduate tuition-dependent university pushed for growth in student enrollment. The faculty, who argued that the quality of education had been declining, resisted the expansion. More students also affected the use of the university's infrastructure. By actively engaging key stakeholders, we developed a simple system dynamics model of university expansion. A major insight suggests that policy decisions made non-holistically might result in counter-intuitive outcomes that could take considerable time from which to recover. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

ACS Style

Raafat Mahmoud Zaini; Oleg V. Pavlov; Khalid Saeed; Michael J. Radzicki; Allen H. Hoffman; Kristen R. Tichenor. Let's Talk Change in a University: A Simple Model for Addressing a Complex Agenda. Systems Research and Behavioral Science 2016, 34, 250 -266.

AMA Style

Raafat Mahmoud Zaini, Oleg V. Pavlov, Khalid Saeed, Michael J. Radzicki, Allen H. Hoffman, Kristen R. Tichenor. Let's Talk Change in a University: A Simple Model for Addressing a Complex Agenda. Systems Research and Behavioral Science. 2016; 34 (3):250-266.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Raafat Mahmoud Zaini; Oleg V. Pavlov; Khalid Saeed; Michael J. Radzicki; Allen H. Hoffman; Kristen R. Tichenor. 2016. "Let's Talk Change in a University: A Simple Model for Addressing a Complex Agenda." Systems Research and Behavioral Science 34, no. 3: 250-266.

Research article
Published: 26 February 2015 in Simulation & Gaming
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Background. Research shows that learning and task performance improve when participants in management exercises understand the structure of the system they control. However, the majority of business simulators are black-boxes. Aim. This article introduces structural debriefing, which is a debriefing activity aimed at helping students learn about causal relationships, feedbacks, accumulations, and delays within a black-box simulation. Method. A structural debriefing can be prepared and facilitated by following the Structural Debriefing Protocol. Results. A pilot study was conducted in which undergraduate students participated in a structural debriefing of The LITTLEFIELD TECHNOLOGIES, a popular simulation for teaching principles of operations management. The students were able to complete all eight steps of a structural debriefing, but required considerable time (three academic terms) to do so. Not every instructional simulation will require all the steps or such a large time commitment. Conclusion. The successful completion of the pilot study demonstrates that structural debriefing is a useful debriefing technique. However, to be effective, the scope and format of a structural debriefing activity must suit practical and pedagogical considerations.

ACS Style

Oleg V. Pavlov; Khalid Saeed; Lawrence W. Robinson. Improving Instructional Simulation With Structural Debriefing. Simulation & Gaming 2015, 46, 383 -403.

AMA Style

Oleg V. Pavlov, Khalid Saeed, Lawrence W. Robinson. Improving Instructional Simulation With Structural Debriefing. Simulation & Gaming. 2015; 46 (3-4):383-403.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Oleg V. Pavlov; Khalid Saeed; Lawrence W. Robinson. 2015. "Improving Instructional Simulation With Structural Debriefing." Simulation & Gaming 46, no. 3-4: 383-403.

Communication
Published: 21 March 2014 in Systems
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Educational programs leading to degrees in system dynamics are rare and thus of critical importance to the future of the field of system dynamics. However, to a large extent such programs have not yet been made transparent to the system dynamics community as a whole. The present article describes the design and rationale for undergraduate and graduate programs at Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI). The goal of the article is to invite feedback from the system dynamics community about our specific programs as well as to facilitate wider discussion about the appropriate content, design, and pedagogy of degree programs and courses in system dynamics.

ACS Style

Oleg V. Pavlov; James K. Doyle; Khalid Saeed; James M. Lyneis; Michael J. Radzicki. The Design of Educational Programs in System Dynamics at Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI). Systems 2014, 2, 54 -76.

AMA Style

Oleg V. Pavlov, James K. Doyle, Khalid Saeed, James M. Lyneis, Michael J. Radzicki. The Design of Educational Programs in System Dynamics at Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI). Systems. 2014; 2 (1):54-76.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Oleg V. Pavlov; James K. Doyle; Khalid Saeed; James M. Lyneis; Michael J. Radzicki. 2014. "The Design of Educational Programs in System Dynamics at Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI)." Systems 2, no. 1: 54-76.

Journal article
Published: 01 May 2009 in Communications of the ACM
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ACS Style

Robert K. Plice; Nigel P. Melville; Oleg V. Pavlov. Toward an information-compatible anti-spam strategy. Communications of the ACM 2009, 52, 128 -130.

AMA Style

Robert K. Plice, Nigel P. Melville, Oleg V. Pavlov. Toward an information-compatible anti-spam strategy. Communications of the ACM. 2009; 52 (5):128-130.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Robert K. Plice; Nigel P. Melville; Oleg V. Pavlov. 2009. "Toward an information-compatible anti-spam strategy." Communications of the ACM 52, no. 5: 128-130.

Journal article
Published: 30 November 2008 in Journal of Business Research
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Email marketing is a legitimate, lucrative, and widely used business tool that is in danger of being overrun by unwanted commercial email (also known as spam). Conventional approaches to maintaining the robustness of legitimate email attack pieces of the problem. In contrast, this article asserts that the email marketing infrastructure is a complex system requiring holistic analysis. In order to understand the underlying dynamics of the spam industry and to examine alternative mitigation strategies, the article develops a system dynamics model. The modeling process reveals that the system conforms to the limits-to-growth generic structure. Simulations suggest that filtering may have the unintended consequence of increasing the global amount of spam. The unexpected increase comes about because better filters can actually assist spammers by abating an information deficit.

ACS Style

Oleg V. Pavlov; Nigel Melville; Robert K. Plice. Toward a sustainable email marketing infrastructure. Journal of Business Research 2008, 61, 1191 -1199.

AMA Style

Oleg V. Pavlov, Nigel Melville, Robert K. Plice. Toward a sustainable email marketing infrastructure. Journal of Business Research. 2008; 61 (11):1191-1199.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Oleg V. Pavlov; Nigel Melville; Robert K. Plice. 2008. "Toward a sustainable email marketing infrastructure." Journal of Business Research 61, no. 11: 1191-1199.

Original articles
Published: 28 October 2008 in Journal of Organizational Computing and Electronic Commerce
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The phenomenon of unwanted commercial messages (UCM), including e-mail spam and emerging forms that target other Internet communications facilities, is analyzed from an information-economics perspective. UCM traffic pays off for its senders when it is noticed and consumed by Internet users; the industry is, therefore, dependent on a common-pool resource that is accessed through an information asset. An analytical model of the industry is derived and solved computationally, and two dimensions of information quality held by the senders of UCM traffic are manipulated in the model. It is shown that such manipulations can moderate over time both the number of UCM campaigns undertaken and the amount of Internet bandwidth consumed by UCM. Manipulations of the information-quality dimensions affected by e-mail filtering reduce the amount of traffic that penetrates an Internet user's attention space but increase the amount of Internet bandwidth consumed. This is consistent with data reported by e-mail security providers as filters have been deployed. It is also shown that both public and private entities have adopted policies and practices with unintentional informational side effects. These effects may have led to more rather than less, spam e-mail traffic. It is concluded that the lessons learned from the case of e-mail spam can be applied to the development of policies and practices for mitigating newer, emerging forms of UCM, including versions targeting instant-messaging systems and Web logs.

ACS Style

Robert K. Plice; Oleg V. Pavlov; Nigel P. Melville. Spam and Beyond: An Information-Economic Analysis of Unwanted Commercial Messages. Journal of Organizational Computing and Electronic Commerce 2008, 18, 278 -306.

AMA Style

Robert K. Plice, Oleg V. Pavlov, Nigel P. Melville. Spam and Beyond: An Information-Economic Analysis of Unwanted Commercial Messages. Journal of Organizational Computing and Electronic Commerce. 2008; 18 (4):278-306.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Robert K. Plice; Oleg V. Pavlov; Nigel P. Melville. 2008. "Spam and Beyond: An Information-Economic Analysis of Unwanted Commercial Messages." Journal of Organizational Computing and Electronic Commerce 18, no. 4: 278-306.

Journal article
Published: 01 October 2008 in Journal of the Operational Research Society
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A generic system embodies basic principles and insights that are common to a set of diverse cases and situations. This paper presents a new generic system that we name the dynastic cycle structure. It is based on a stylized model of events from the Chinese history. The model describes resource allocation between social, asocial and control uses in political economies, markets and firms that experience cyclical behaviour and homeostasis symbolizing low levels of performance. Numerical simulations with the model are used to understand the internal dynamics and to test several policy scenarios.

ACS Style

K Saeed; O V Pavlov. Dynastic cycle: a generic structure describing resource allocation in political economies, markets and firms. Journal of the Operational Research Society 2008, 59, 1289 -1298.

AMA Style

K Saeed, O V Pavlov. Dynastic cycle: a generic structure describing resource allocation in political economies, markets and firms. Journal of the Operational Research Society. 2008; 59 (10):1289-1298.

Chicago/Turabian Style

K Saeed; O V Pavlov. 2008. "Dynastic cycle: a generic structure describing resource allocation in political economies, markets and firms." Journal of the Operational Research Society 59, no. 10: 1289-1298.

Journal article
Published: 01 September 2008 in System Dynamics Review
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We develop a system dynamics model of message‐based communication, where the information‐processing capacity of message recipients is limited. Profit‐seeking broadcasters send messages, but only some of these messages are valuable to recipients. Recipients cannot determine whether or not a message is valuable until it is processed. Information overload occurs when more messages arrive than recipients can process. Numerical experiments test alternative approaches for mitigating information overload. We show that message filtering can increase the flow of for‐profit communication. Market‐based mechanisms, while aimed at improving the social outcome, can actually lead to suboptimal results and to a complete collapse of for‐profit communication. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

ACS Style

Oleg V. Pavlov; Robert K. Plice; Nigel P. Melville. A communication model with limited information-processing capacity of recipients. System Dynamics Review 2008, 24, 377 -405.

AMA Style

Oleg V. Pavlov, Robert K. Plice, Nigel P. Melville. A communication model with limited information-processing capacity of recipients. System Dynamics Review. 2008; 24 (3):377-405.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Oleg V. Pavlov; Robert K. Plice; Nigel P. Melville. 2008. "A communication model with limited information-processing capacity of recipients." System Dynamics Review 24, no. 3: 377-405.

Journal article
Published: 01 June 2006 in International Journal of Electronic Commerce
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Unsolicited commercial e-mail (UCE) is a significant problem of the digital commons, but there has been little empirical analysis of proposed solutions and underlying mechanisms. This study, based on an analysis of 47 million inbound e-mail messages drawn from a cross-section of e-mail inbox owners over a one-year period, characterizes resource overuse in the e-mail commons. The absence of a growth trend in UCE message volume raises questions about the sampling methodologies underlying media reports about spam. The distribution of UCE messages reveals a cyclical trend, peaking in mid-week and subsiding on weekends, that can be explained in part by the trend of regular e-mail messages—an unanticipated finding given the difference between UCE and ordinary e-mail communication. Ruling out technological constraints and workweek conventions, the study suggests that these covarying patterns come about because UCE senders strategically exploit the unique features of the on-line commons, including instantaneous feedback, information transparency, identity misrepresentation, and technological progress. Analysis of these properties can lead to improved management of the digital commons.

ACS Style

Nigel Melville; Aaron Stevens; Robert K. Plice; Oleg V. Pavlov. Unsolicited Commercial E-Mail: Empirical Analysis of a Digital Commons. International Journal of Electronic Commerce 2006, 10, 143 -170.

AMA Style

Nigel Melville, Aaron Stevens, Robert K. Plice, Oleg V. Pavlov. Unsolicited Commercial E-Mail: Empirical Analysis of a Digital Commons. International Journal of Electronic Commerce. 2006; 10 (4):143-170.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Nigel Melville; Aaron Stevens; Robert K. Plice; Oleg V. Pavlov. 2006. "Unsolicited Commercial E-Mail: Empirical Analysis of a Digital Commons." International Journal of Electronic Commerce 10, no. 4: 143-170.

Journal article
Published: 21 September 2004 in System Dynamics Review
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Peer‐to‐peer technology allowed massive free music file sharing, which led to much controversy, legal debate, and a great deal of speculation about the technology's business viability. Operation of a peer‐to‐peer (P2P) network depends on the content and bandwidth contributions from its users. Many users free ride by contributing fewer resources than they use. Research found that free riding intensifies with crowding. These salient features suggest that the underlying template describing a P2P system may be the limits to growth archetype. We expand on this idea by building a system dynamics model, which captures complex causal interactions between private provision of common resources, free riding, network performance, and membership dynamics. Base runs confirm that the model reproduces historically observed behavior. We use the calibrated model to test effectiveness of certain modifications that have been proposed for real P2P networks. Simulation results are explained by reviewing the interplay of reinforcing and limiting feedbacks that drive the system. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

ACS Style

Oleg V. Pavlov; Khalid Saeed. A resource-based analysis of peer-to-peer technology. System Dynamics Review 2004, 20, 237 -262.

AMA Style

Oleg V. Pavlov, Khalid Saeed. A resource-based analysis of peer-to-peer technology. System Dynamics Review. 2004; 20 (3):237-262.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Oleg V. Pavlov; Khalid Saeed. 2004. "A resource-based analysis of peer-to-peer technology." System Dynamics Review 20, no. 3: 237-262.