Quantifying rates of climate change in mountain regions is of considerable interest, not least because mountains are viewed as climate “hotspots” where change can anticipate or amplify what is occurring elsewhere. Accelerating mountain climate change has extensive environmental impacts, including depletion of snow/ice reserves, critical for the world’s water supply. Whilst the concept of elevation-dependent warming (EDW), whereby warming rates are stratified by elevation, is widely accepted, no consistent EDW profile at the global scale has been identified. Past assessments have also neglected elevation-dependent changes in precipitation. In this comprehensive analysis, both in situ station temperature and precipitation data from mountain regions, and global gridded datasets (observations, reanalyses and model hindcasts) are employed to examine the elevation dependency of temperature and precipitation changes since 1900. In situ observations in paired studies (using adjacent stations) show a tendency towards enhanced warming at higher elevations. However, when all mountain/lowland studies are pooled into two groups, no systematic difference in high vs. low elevation group warming rates is found. Precipitation changes based on station data are inconsistent with no systematic contrast between mountain and lowland precipitation trends. Gridded datasets (CRU, GISTEMP, GPCC, ERA5, CMIP5) show increased warming rates at higher elevations in some regions, but on a global scale there is no universal amplification of warming in mountains. Increases in mountain precipitation are weaker than for low elevations worldwide, meaning reduced elevation-dependency of precipitation, especially in mid-latitudes. Agreement on elevation-dependent changes between gridded datasets is weak for temperature but stronger for precipitation.
Certain applications, such as understanding the influence of bedrock geology on hydrology in complex mountainous settings, demand 3D geological models that are detailed, high-resolution, accurate, and spatially-extensive. However, developing models with these characteristics remains challenging. Here, we present a dataset corresponding to a renowned tectonic entity in the Swiss Alps - the Nappe de Morcles - that does achieve these criteria. Locations of lithological interfaces and formation orientations were first extracted from existing sources. Then, using state-of-the-art algorithms, the interfaces were interpolated. Finally, an iterative process of evaluation and re-interpolation was undertaken. The geology was satisfactorily reproduced; modelled interfaces correspond well with the input data, and the estimated volumes seem plausible. Overall, 18 formations, including their associated secondary folds and selected faults, are represented at 10 m resolution. Numerous environmental investigations in the study area could benefit from the dataset; indeed, it is already informing integrated hydrological (snow/surface-water/groundwater) simulations. Our work demonstrates the potential that now exists to develop complex, high-quality geological models in support of contemporary Alpine research, augmenting traditional geological information in the process.
Highly simplified approaches continue to underpin hydrological climate change impact assessments across the Earth's mountainous regions. Fully‐integrated surface‐subsurface models may hold far greater potential to represent the distinctive regimes of steep, geologically‐complex headwater catchments. However, their utility has not yet been tested across a wide range of mountainous settings. Here, an integrated model of two adjacent calcareous Alpine headwaters that accounts for two‐dimensional surface flow, three‐dimensional (3D) variably‐saturated groundwater flow, and evapotranspiration is presented. An energy balance‐based representation of snow dynamics contributed to the model's high‐resolution forcing data, and a sophisticated 3D geological model helped to define and parameterize its subsurface structure. In the first known attempt to calibrate a catchment‐scale integrated model of a mountainous region automatically, numerous uncertain model parameters were estimated. The salient features of the hydrological regime could ultimately be satisfactorily reproduced – over an 11‐month evaluation period, the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency of simulated streamflow at the main gauging station was 0.76. Spatio‐temporal visualization of the forcing data and simulated responses further confirmed the model's broad coherence. Presumably due to unresolved local subsurface heterogeneity, closely replicating the somewhat contrasting groundwater level signals observed near to one another proved more elusive. Finally, we assessed the impacts of various simplifications and assumptions that are commonly employed in physically‐based modeling – including the use of spatially uniform forcings, a vertically limited model domain, and global geological data products – on key simulated outputs, finding strongly affected model performance in many cases. Although certain outstanding challenges must be overcome if the uptake of integrated models in mountain regions around the world is to increase, our work demonstrates the feasibility and benefits of their application in such complex systems.
Changing climate and human demographics in the world’s mountains will have increasingly profound environmental and societal consequences across all elevations. Quantifying current human populations in and near mountains is crucial to ensure that any interventions in these complex social-ecological systems are appropriately resourced, and that valuable ecosystems are effectively protected. However, comprehensive and reproducible analyses on this subject are lacking. Here, we develop and implement an open workflow to quantify the sensitivity of mountain population estimates over recent decades, both globally and for several sets of relevant reporting regions, to alternative input dataset combinations. Relationships between mean population density and several potential environmental covariates are also explored across elevational bands within individual mountain regions (i.e. “sub-mountain range scale”). Globally, mountain population estimates vary greatly—from 0.344 billion (31%) in 2015. A more detailed analysis using one of the population datasets (GHS-POP) revealed that in ∼35% of mountain sub-regions, population increased at least twofold over the 40-year period 1975–2015. The urban proportion of the total mountain population in 2015 ranged from 6% to 39%, depending on the combination of population and urban extent datasets used. At sub-mountain range scale, population density was found to be more strongly associated with climatic than with topographic and protected-area variables, and these relationships appear to have strengthened slightly over time. Such insights may contribute to improved predictions of future mountain population distributions under scenarios of future climatic and demographic change. Overall, our work emphasizes that irrespective of data choices, substantial human populations are likely to be directly affected by—and themselves affect—mountainous environmental and ecological change. It thereby further underlines the urgency with which the multitudinous challenges concerning the interactions between mountain climate and human societies under change must be tackled.