We applied a generalized SEIR epidemiological model to the recent SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the world, with a focus on Italy and its Lombardy, Piedmont, and Veneto regions. We focused on the application of a stochastic approach in fitting the model parameters using a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) solver, to improve the reliability of predictions in the medium term (30 days). We analyzed the official data and the predicted evolution of the epidemic in the Italian regions, and we compared the results with the data and predictions of Spain and South Korea. We linked the model equations to the changes in people’s mobility, with reference to Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. We discussed the effectiveness of policies taken by different regions and countries and how they have an impact on past and future infection scenarios.

This paper reviews the application of the algorithm particle swarm optimization (PSO) to perform stochastic inverse modeling of geophysical data. The main features of PSO are summarized, and the most important contributions in several geophysical fields are analyzed. The aim is to indicate the fundamental steps of the evolution of PSO methodologies that have been adopted to model the Earth’s subsurface and then to undertake a critical evaluation of their benefits and limitations. Original works have been selected from the existing geophysical literature to illustrate successful PSO applied to the interpretation of electromagnetic (magnetotelluric and time-domain) data, gravimetric and magnetic data, self-potential, direct current and seismic data. These case studies are critically described and compared. In addition, joint optimization of multiple geophysical data sets by means of multi-objective PSO is presented to highlight the advantage of using a single solver that deploys Pareto optimality to handle different data sets without conflicting solutions. Finally, we propose best practices for the implementation of a customized algorithm from scratch to perform stochastic inverse modeling of any kind of geophysical data sets for the benefit of PSO practitioners or inexperienced researchers.