We adapted the coupled ocean-sediment transport model to the northern Gulf of Mexico to examine sediment dynamics on seasonal-to-decadal time scales as well as its response to decreased fluvial inputs from the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River. Sediment transport on the shelf exhibited contrasting conditions in a year, with strong westward transport in spring, fall, and winter, and relatively weak eastward transport in summer. Sedimentation rate varied from almost zero on the open shelf to more than 10 cm/year near river mouths. A phase shift in river discharge was detected in 1999 and was associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event, after which, water and sediment fluxes decreased by ~20% and ~40%, respectively. Two sensitivity tests were carried out to examine the response of sediment dynamics to high and low river discharge, respectively. With a decreased fluvial supply, sediment flux and sedimentation rate were largely reduced in areas proximal to the deltas, which might accelerate the land loss in down-coast bays and estuaries. The results of two sensitivity tests indicated the decreased river discharge would largely affect sediment balance in waters around the delta. The impact from decreased fluvial input was minimum on the sandy shoals ~100 km west of the Mississippi Delta, where deposition of fluvial sediments was highly affected by winds.

We applied the newly developed WRF-Hydro model to investigate the hydroclimatic trend encompassing the three basins in Southwest Louisiana as well as their connection with large-scale atmospheric drivers. Using the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2), we performed a multi-decadal model hindcast covering the period of 1979–2014. After validating the model’s performance against available observations, trend and wavelet analysis were applied on the time series of hydroclimatic variables from NLDAS-2 (temperature and precipitation) and model results (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, water surplus, and streamflow). Trend analysis of model-simulated monthly and annual time series indicates that the regional climate is warming and drying over the past decades, specifically during spring and summer (growing season). Wavelet analysis reveals that, since the late 1990s, the anomaly of evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and streamflow exhibits high coherency with that of precipitation. Pettitt’s test detects a possible change-point around the year 2004, after which the monthly precipitation decreased from 140 to 120 mm, evapotranspiration slightly increased from 80 to 83 mm, and water surplus decreased from 60 to 38 mm. Changes in regional climate conditions are closely correlated with large-scale climate dynamics such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Ship Shoal has been a high-priority target sand resource for dredging activities to restore the eroding barrier islands in LA, USA. The Caminada and Raccoon Island pits were dredged on and near Ship Shoal, which resulted in a mixed texture environment with the redistribution of cohesive mud and noncohesive sand. However, there is very limited knowledge about the source and transport process of suspended muddy sediments near Ship Shoal. The objective of this study is to apply the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) model to quantify the sediment sources and relative contribution of fluvial sediments with the estuary and shelf sediments delivered to Ship Shoal. The model results showed that suspended mud from the Atchafalaya River can transport and bypass Ship Shoal. Only a minimal amount of suspended mud from the Atchafalaya River can be delivered to Ship Shoal in a one-year time scale. Additionally, suspended mud from the inner shelf could be transported cross Ship Shoal and generate a thin mud layer, which is also considered as the primary sediment source infilling the dredge pits near Ship Shoal. Two hurricanes and one tropical storm during the year 2017–2018 changed the direction of the sediment transport flux near Ship Shoal and contributed to the pit infilling (less than 10% for this specific period). Our model also captured that the bottom sediment concentration in the Raccoon Island pit was relatively higher than the one in Caminada in the same period. Suspended mud sediment from the river, inner shelf, and bay can bypass or transport and deposit in the Caminada pit and Raccoon Island pit, which showed that the Caminada pit and Raccoon Island pits would not be considered as a renewable borrow area for future sand dredging activities for coastal restoration.