Purpose of Review: The objectives of this paper are to briefly review basic risk management and analytics concepts, describe their nexus in relation to wildfire response, demonstrate real-world application of analytics to support response decisions and organizational learning, and outline an analytics strategy for the future.Recent Findings: Analytics can improve decision-making and organizational performance across a variety of areas from sports to business to real-time emergency response. A lack of robust descriptive analytics on wildfire incident response effectiveness is a bottleneck for developing operationally relevant and empirically credible predictive and prescriptive analytics to inform and guide strategic response decisions. Capitalizing on technology such as automated resource tracking and machine learning algorithms can help bridge gaps between monitoring, learning, and data-driven decision-making.Summary: By investing in better collection, documentation, archiving, and analysis of operational data on response effectiveness, fire management organizations can promote systematic learning and provide a better evidence base to support response decisions. We describe an analytics management framework that can provide structure to help deploy analytics within organizations, and provide real-world examples of advanced fire analytics applied in the USA. To fully capitalize on the potential of analytics, organizations may need to catalyze cultural shifts that cultivate stronger appreciation for data-driven decision processes, and develop informed skeptics that effectively balance both judgment and analysis in decision-making.

Accurate information is important for effective management of natural resources. In the field of forestry, field measurements of forest characteristics such as species composition, basal area, and stand density are used to inform and evaluate management activities. Quantifying these metrics accurately across large landscapes in a meaningful way is extremely important to facilitate informed decision-making. In this study, we present a remote sensing based methodology to estimate species composition, basal area and stand tree density for pine and hardwood tree species at the spatial resolution of a Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) program plot (78 m by 70 m). Our methodology uses textural metrics derived at this spatial scale to relate plot summaries of forest characteristics to remotely sensed National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) aerial imagery across broad extents. Our findings quantify strong relationships between NAIP imagery and FIA field data. On average, models of basal area and trees per acre accounted for 43% of the variation in the FIA data, while models identifying species composition had less than 15.2% error in predicted class probabilities. Moreover, these relationships can be used to spatially characterize the condition of forests at fine spatial resolutions across broad extents.

Spatial modeling is an integral component of most geographic information systems (GISs). However, conventional GIS modeling techniques can require substantial processing time and storage space and have limited statistical and machine learning functionality. To address these limitations, many have parallelized spatial models using multiple coding libraries and have applied those models in a multiprocessor environment. Few, however, have recognized the inefficiencies associated with the underlying spatial modeling framework used to implement such analyses. In this paper, we identify a common inefficiency in processing spatial models and demonstrate a novel approach to address it using lazy evaluation techniques. Furthermore, we introduce a new coding library that integrates Accord.NET and ALGLIB numeric libraries and uses lazy evaluation to facilitate a wide range of spatial, statistical, and machine learning procedures within a new GIS modeling framework called function modeling. Results from simulations show a 64.3% reduction in processing time and an 84.4% reduction in storage space attributable to function modeling. In an applied case study, this translated to a reduction in processing time from 2247 h to 488 h and a reduction is storage space from 152 terabytes to 913 gigabytes.

Digital cameras can provide a consistent view of vegetation phenology at fine spatial and temporal scales that are impractical to collect manually and are currently unobtainable by satellite and most aerial based sensors. This study links greenness indices derived from digital images in a network of rangeland and forested sites in Montana and Idaho to 16-day normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Multiple digital cameras were placed along a transect at each site to increase the observational footprint and correlation with the coarser MODIS NDVI. Digital camera phenology indices were averaged across cameras on a site to derive phenological curves. The phenology curves, as well as green-up dates, and maximum growth dates, were highly correlated to the satellite derived MODIS composite NDVI 16-day data at homogeneous rangeland vegetation sites. Forested and mixed canopy sites had lower correlation and variable significance. This result suggests the use of MODIS NDVI in forested sites to evaluate understory phenology may not be suitable. This study demonstrates that data from digital camera networks with multiple cameras per site can be used to reliably estimate measures of vegetation phenology in rangelands and that those data are highly correlated to MODIS 16-day NDVI.

Remotely sensed data are commonly used as predictor variables in spatially explicit models depicting landscape characteristics of interest (response) across broad extents, at relatively fine resolution. To create these models, variables are spatially registered to a known coordinate system and used to link responses with predictor variable values. Inherently, this linking process introduces measurement error into the response and predictors, which in the latter case causes attenuation bias. Through simulations, our findings indicate that the spatial correlation of response and predictor variables and their corresponding spatial registration (co-registration) errors can have a substantial impact on the bias and accuracy of linear models. Additionally, in this study we evaluate spatial aggregation as a mechanism to minimize the impact of co-registration errors, assess the impact of subsampling within the extent of sample units, and provide a technique that can be used to both determine the extent of an observational unit needed to minimize the impact of co-registration and quantify the amount of error potentially introduced into predictive models.