The article presents the results of numerical and experimental investigations of guided wave propagation in aluminum plates with variable thickness. The shapes of plate surfaces have been specially designed and manufactured using a CNC milling machine. The shapes of the plates were defined by sinusoidal functions varying in phase shift, which forced the changes in thickness variability alongside the propagation path. The main aim of the study is to analyze the wave propagation characteristics caused by non-uniform thickness. In the first step, the influence of thickness variability on the time course of propagating waves has been analyzed theoretically. The study proves that the wave propagation signals can be determined based on knowledge about the statistical description of the specimen geometry. The histograms of thickness distribution together with the a priori knowledge of the dispersion curves were used to develop an iterative procedure assuming that the signal from the previous step becomes the excitation in the next step. Such an approach allowed for taking into account the complex geometry of the plate and rejecting the assumption about the constant average thickness alongside the propagation path. In consequence, it was possible to predict correctly the signal time course, as well as the time of flight and number of propagating wave modes in specimens with variable thickness. It is demonstrated that theoretical signals predicted in this way coincide well with numerical and experimental results. Moreover, the novel procedure allowed for the correct prediction of the occurrence of higher-order modes.