Self-organizing maps (SOMs) are a relative newcomer to synoptic climatology; the method itself has only been utilized in the field for around a decade. In this article, we review the major developments and climatological applications of SOMs in the literature. The SOM can be used in synoptic climatological analysis in a manner similar to most other clustering methods. However, as the results from a SOM are generally represented by a two-dimensional array of cluster types that ‘self-organize’, the synoptic categories in the array effectively represent a continuum of synoptic categorizations, compared with discrete realizations produced through most traditional methods. Thus, a larger number of patterns can be more readily understood, and patterns, as well as transitional nodes between patterns, can be discerned. Perhaps the most intriguing development with SOMs has been the new avenues of visualization; the resultant spatial patterns of any variable can be more readily understood when displayed in a SOM. This improved visualization has led to SOMs becoming an increasingly popular tool in various research with climatological applications from other disciplines as well.
While many studies comparing atmospheric reanalysis and surface observations have focused on the similarity of mean fields, trends, or frequencies of extreme events, very few have assessed how similar surface observations and reanalysis data sets are in terms of their specific identification of extreme temperature event days. Here, we assess the similarity between surface observations and three reanalysis products: ERA5, ERA5‐LAND, and NARR, in terms of the days on which they identify extreme heat and cold events for the period 1979–2016 at 230 locations in the United States and Canada. Cold events have a greater match than heat events. ERA5 has the greatest match percentage with station data across the study region. Match percentage is greatest in midlatitude, continental locations, with poorer performance in coastal areas, and the Arctic.
8 November 2018 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
In this research, we define extreme temperature events using a recently defined excess heat factor, based on the exceedance of apparent temperature beyond the 95th percentile along with an acclimatization factor, to define extreme heat events (EHE). We extend the calculation to assess cold and develop relative metrics to complement the absolute metrics, where extremeness is based on conditions relative to season. We thus examine extreme cold events (ECE), relative extreme heat events, and relative extreme cold events in addition to EHE. We present a climatology of these variables for North America, followed by analyses of trends from 1980 to 2016. While EHE and ECE are found in the core of summer and winter, respectively, relative events tend to have a broader seasonality. Trends in relative extreme heat events and EHE are upward, and relative extreme cold events and ECE are downward; the relative events are changing more rapidly than the absolute events.
While the impact of absolute extreme temperatures on human health has been amply studied, far less attention has been given to relative temperature extremes, that is, events that are highly unusual for the time of year but not necessarily extreme relative to a location’s overall climate. In this research, we use a recently defined extreme temperature event metric to define absolute extreme heat events (EHE) and extreme cold events (ECE) using absolute thresholds, and relative extreme heat events (REHE) and relative extreme cold events (RECE) using relative thresholds. All-cause mortality outcomes using a distributed lag nonlinear model are evaluated for the largest 51 metropolitan areas in the US for the period 1975–2010. Both the immediate impacts and the cumulative 20-day impacts are assessed for each of the extreme temperature event types. The 51 metropolitan areas were then grouped into 8 regions for meta-analysis. For heat events, the greatest mortality increases occur with a 0-day lag, with the subsequent days showing below-expected mortality (harvesting) that decreases the overall cumulative impact. For EHE, increases in mortality are still statistically significant when examined over 20 days. For REHE, it appears as though the day-0 increase in mortality is short-term displacement. For cold events, both relative and absolute, there is little mortality increase on day 0, but the impacts increase on subsequent days. Cumulative impacts are statistically significant at more than half of the stations for both ECE and RECE. The response to absolute ECE is strongest, but is also significant when using RECE across several southern locations, suggesting that there may be a lack of acclimatization, increasing mortality in relative cold events both early and late in winter.