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Prof. Dr. Mihajlo Jakovljevic
Institute of Comparative Economic Studies Hosei University Tokyo Japan

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0 Emerging Markets
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health financing
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Short Biography

Professor Mihajlo (Michael) Jakovljevic MD, PhD is an appointed WHO EACHR Committee member; published 200+ full length papers in indexed, high impact journals (Cumulative Impact Factor 1,500+; 30,000+ citations, Hirsch factor 47, I-10 index 112). He is European Health Economist and Clinical Pharmacology Specialist. So far he was holding Visiting Research or Teaching positions at Hosei University Tokyo, (Japanese National Center for Population Aging), Health Economics Department, Lund University, Sweden, Vienna Medical University, Austria, Ghent University, Belgium, Aarhus University Denmark, DZA , Berlin Germany; ISEG Lisboa, Portugal and Ljubljana University, Slovenia. He is frequent speaker in the field, across Europe, Middle East and Far East. His scholarly work appeared in LANCET, Health Economics, Lancet HIV, European Journal of Health Economics, Value in Health, Plos One, JAMA, Expert Reviews in Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research, Journal of Medical Economics and top ranked clinical journals. Many of the published studies were joint academic research projects with a variety of EU, US and Japanese universities funded by different national or federal funding agencies. These health economic estimates relate to conditions such as: risky pregnancies, depression, cancer, addiction disorders, COPD, diabetes and technologies ranging from radiation oncology, monoclonal antibodies, alternative and complementary medicine, psychotherapy, surgery, among others.

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Preprint content
Published: 02 August 2021
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BackgroundGlobally and in the U.S. in particular, pharmaceutical fraud account for a large number out of all crimes in healthcare, which result into severe costs to the society The Academy of Managed Care Pharmacists (2019) estimate that pharmacy fraud is 1% of costs, therefore estimating that pharmacy fraud costs at $3.5 billion, given that pharmacy costs are $358 billion (Statista, 2021). AimThis exploratory study aims to demonstrate a fraudster’s profile as well as to estimate average consequences in terms of costs and identify the loss predictors’ hierarchy in the pharmaceutical industry in the U.S. Materials and methodsData from the Corporate Prosecution Registry and mixed-effects models are utilized for this purpose. The dataset covers years 2001-2020 and 75 cases, falling into one of the following broad sub-categories: misbranding, counterfeit, off label use of drugs, off-label use of drugs / deceptive marketing; violation of the Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act.ResultsThe main factors positively associated with loss due to pharmaceutical fraud are (i) duration of (ii) the scheme and scheme being executed at a U.S. public company. Surprisingly, presence of collusion negatively and significantly effects the cost. Potential factors include (a) principal perpetrator being a white American and/or male, and (b) number of employees at individual and organizational level respectively.ConclusionThis study empirically justifies considering loss, due to pharmaceutical fraud, from a multi-level perspective. Identified profiles of a typical fraudster helped to elaborate on specific practical recommendations aimed at pharmaceutical fraud prevention in the U.S.

ACS Style

Yuriy Timofeyev; Susan Hayes; Mihajlo Jakovljevic. Predictors of Loss Due to Pharmaceutical Fraud: Evidence From the U.S. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Yuriy Timofeyev, Susan Hayes, Mihajlo Jakovljevic. Predictors of Loss Due to Pharmaceutical Fraud: Evidence From the U.S. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Yuriy Timofeyev; Susan Hayes; Mihajlo Jakovljevic. 2021. "Predictors of Loss Due to Pharmaceutical Fraud: Evidence From the U.S." , no. : 1.

Diabetes
Published: 14 July 2021 in Current Medical Research and Opinion
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Prevalence rates for diabetes mellitus continue to rise, which, coupled with increasing costs of complications, has appreciably increased expenditure in recent years. Poor glycemic control including hypoglycemia enhances complication rates and associated morbidity, mortality and costs. Consequently, this needs to be addressed. Whilst the majority of patients with diabetes have type 2 diabetes, a considerable number of patients with diabetes require insulin to help control their diabetes. Long-acting insulin analogues were developed to reduce hypoglycemia associated with insulin and help improve adherence, which can be a concern. However, their considerably higher costs have impacted on their funding and use, especially in countries with affordability issues. Biosimilars can help reduce the costs of long-acting insulin analogues thereby increasing available choices. However, the availability and use of long-acting insulin analogues can be affected by limited price reductions versus originators and limited demand-side initiatives to encourage their use. Consequently, we wanted to assess current utilisation rates for long-acting insulin analogues, especially biosimilars, and the rationale for patterns seen, across multiple Asian countries ranging from Japan (high-income) to Pakistan (lower-income) to inform future strategies. Multiple approaches including assessing utilization and prices of insulins including biosimilars among six Asian countries and comparing the findings especially with other middle-income countries. Typically, there was increasing use of long-acting insulin analogues among the selected Asian countries. This was especially the case enhanced by biosimilars in Bangladesh, India, and Malaysia reflecting their perceived benefits. However, there was limited use in Pakistan due to issues of affordability similar to a number of African countries. The high use of biosimilars in Bangladesh, India and Malaysia was helped by issues of affordability and local production. The limited use of biosimilars in Japan and Korea reflects limited price reductions and demand-side initiatives similar to a number of European countries. Increasing use of long-acting insulin analogues across countries is welcomed, adding to the range of insulins available, which increasingly includes biosimilars. A number of activities are needed to enhance the use of long-acting insulin analogue biosimilars in Japan, Korea and Pakistan.

ACS Style

Brian Godman; Mainul Haque; Santosh Kumar; Salequl Islam; Jaykaran Charan; Farhana Akter; Amanj Kurdi; Eleonora Allocati; Muhammed Abu Bakar; Sagir Abdur Rahim; Nusrat Sultana; Farzana Deeba; M. A. Halim Khan; A. B. M Muksudul Alam; Iffat Jahan; Zubair Mahmood Kamal; Humaira Hasin; Munzur- E- Murshid; Shamsun Nahar; Monami Haque; Siddhartha Dutta; Jha Pallavi Abhayanand; Rimple Jeet Kaur; Jitendra Acharya; Takuma Sugahara; Hye-Young Kwon; Seungjin Bae; Karen Koh Pek Khuan; Tanveer Ahmed Khan; Shahzad Hussain; Zikria Saleem; Alice Pisana; Janney Wale; Mihajlo Jakovljevic. Current utilization patterns for long-acting insulin analogues including biosimilars among selected Asian countries and the implications for the future. Current Medical Research and Opinion 2021, 37, 1529 -1545.

AMA Style

Brian Godman, Mainul Haque, Santosh Kumar, Salequl Islam, Jaykaran Charan, Farhana Akter, Amanj Kurdi, Eleonora Allocati, Muhammed Abu Bakar, Sagir Abdur Rahim, Nusrat Sultana, Farzana Deeba, M. A. Halim Khan, A. B. M Muksudul Alam, Iffat Jahan, Zubair Mahmood Kamal, Humaira Hasin, Munzur- E- Murshid, Shamsun Nahar, Monami Haque, Siddhartha Dutta, Jha Pallavi Abhayanand, Rimple Jeet Kaur, Jitendra Acharya, Takuma Sugahara, Hye-Young Kwon, Seungjin Bae, Karen Koh Pek Khuan, Tanveer Ahmed Khan, Shahzad Hussain, Zikria Saleem, Alice Pisana, Janney Wale, Mihajlo Jakovljevic. Current utilization patterns for long-acting insulin analogues including biosimilars among selected Asian countries and the implications for the future. Current Medical Research and Opinion. 2021; 37 (9):1529-1545.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Brian Godman; Mainul Haque; Santosh Kumar; Salequl Islam; Jaykaran Charan; Farhana Akter; Amanj Kurdi; Eleonora Allocati; Muhammed Abu Bakar; Sagir Abdur Rahim; Nusrat Sultana; Farzana Deeba; M. A. Halim Khan; A. B. M Muksudul Alam; Iffat Jahan; Zubair Mahmood Kamal; Humaira Hasin; Munzur- E- Murshid; Shamsun Nahar; Monami Haque; Siddhartha Dutta; Jha Pallavi Abhayanand; Rimple Jeet Kaur; Jitendra Acharya; Takuma Sugahara; Hye-Young Kwon; Seungjin Bae; Karen Koh Pek Khuan; Tanveer Ahmed Khan; Shahzad Hussain; Zikria Saleem; Alice Pisana; Janney Wale; Mihajlo Jakovljevic. 2021. "Current utilization patterns for long-acting insulin analogues including biosimilars among selected Asian countries and the implications for the future." Current Medical Research and Opinion 37, no. 9: 1529-1545.

Preprint content
Published: 01 July 2021
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Introduction: BRICS leading Emerging Markets are increasingly shaping the landscape of global health sector demand and supply for medical goods and services. BRICS’ share of global health spending and future projections will play a prominent role during upcoming 2020s. The purpose of current research was to examine decades long, underlying historical trends in BRICS’ nations health spending and explore these data as the grounds for reliable forecasting of their health expenditures up to 2030.Methods: BRICS’ health spending data spanning 1995 - 2017 were extracted from IHME’s Financing Global Health 2019 database. Total health expenditure, government, prepaid private and out-of-pocket spending per capita and GDP share of total health spending, were forecasted 2018 - 2030. The ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models were used to obtain future projection based on time series analysis.Results: Per capita health spending in 2030 is projected to be: Brazil: $1767 (95% PI: 1615, 1977) ; Russia: $1933 (95% PI: 1549, 2317); India: $468 (95% PI: 400.4, 535) ; China: $1707 (95% PI: 1079, 2334); South Africa $1379 (95% PI: 755, 2004). Health spending %GDP shares in 2030 are projected to be: Brazil: 8.4% (95% PI: 7.5, 9.4) ; Russia: 5.2% (95% PI: 4.5, 5.9) ; India: 3.5% (95% PI: 2.9%,4.1%) ; China: 5.9% (95% PI: 4.9, 7.0) ; South Africa: 10.4% (95% PI: 5.5, 15.3).Conclusions: All BRICS expose long term trend to increase their per capita spending in PPP (purchase power parity) terms. India and Russia are highly likely to maintain stable total health spending GDP% share until 2030. China, as the major driver of global economic growth will be capable of significantly expanding its investment into the health sector across an array of indicators. Brazil is the only large nation whose GDP% share of health expenditure is about to contract substantially during the third decade of the 21st century. The steepest curve of increase in per capita spending until 2030 seems to be attributable to India while Russia should achieve the highest values in absolute terms. Health policy implications of long term trends in health spending indicate the need for Health Technology Assessment dissemination among BRICS ministries of health and national health insurance funds. Matters of cost-effective allocation of limited resources shall remain the core challenge in 2030 as well.

ACS Style

Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Demetrios Lamnissos; Ronny Westerman; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Arcadio Cerda. Future Health Spending Forecast in Leading Emerging BRICS Markets in 2030 - Health Policy Implications. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Demetrios Lamnissos, Ronny Westerman, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Arcadio Cerda. Future Health Spending Forecast in Leading Emerging BRICS Markets in 2030 - Health Policy Implications. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Demetrios Lamnissos; Ronny Westerman; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Arcadio Cerda. 2021. "Future Health Spending Forecast in Leading Emerging BRICS Markets in 2030 - Health Policy Implications." , no. : 1.

Commentary
Published: 01 July 2021 in Therapeutics and Clinical Risk Management
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In this narrated review, we draw attention to the use of happiness as a novel outcome measure in clinical research studies regarding patients with stroke. Commonly used outcome measures in clinical trials in stroke rehabilitation include the modified Rankin Score (mRS), Functional Impairment Measures (FIM), Barthel Index and quality of life (QoL). Despite being a part of QoL, happiness is arguably a significant construct on its own. While QoL assesses perceptions of various extrinsic aspects of life, happiness may be used as a measure of subjective enjoyment of life after an illness. We review the literature discussing the use of happiness as a formal outcome measure in stroke care and subacute and long-term stroke rehabilitation. Ultimately we recommend the wider use of happiness as an outcome measure where appropriate in these settings.

ACS Style

Tissa Wijeratne; Carmela Sales; Chanith Wijeratne; Mihajlo Jakovljevic. Happiness: A Novel Outcome Measure in Stroke? Therapeutics and Clinical Risk Management 2021, ume 17, 747 -754.

AMA Style

Tissa Wijeratne, Carmela Sales, Chanith Wijeratne, Mihajlo Jakovljevic. Happiness: A Novel Outcome Measure in Stroke? Therapeutics and Clinical Risk Management. 2021; ume 17 ():747-754.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Tissa Wijeratne; Carmela Sales; Chanith Wijeratne; Mihajlo Jakovljevic. 2021. "Happiness: A Novel Outcome Measure in Stroke?" Therapeutics and Clinical Risk Management ume 17, no. : 747-754.

Public health
Published: 24 June 2021 in Frontiers in Public Health
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Background: Diabetes mellitus rates continue to rise, which coupled with increasing costs of associated complications has appreciably increased global expenditure in recent years. The risk of complications are enhanced by poor glycaemic control including hypoglycaemia. Long-acting insulin analogues were developed to reduce hypoglycaemia and improve adherence. Their considerably higher costs though have impacted their funding and use. Biosimilars can help reduce medicine costs. However, their introduction has been affected by a number of factors. These include the originator company dropping its price as well as promoting patented higher strength 300 IU/ml insulin glargine. There can also be concerns with different devices between the manufacturers. Objective: To assess current utilisation rates for insulins, especially long-acting insulin analogues, and the rationale for patterns seen, across multiple countries to inform strategies to enhance future utilisation of long-acting insulin analogue biosimilars to benefit all key stakeholders. Our approach: Multiple approaches including assessing the utilisation, expenditure and prices of insulins, including biosimilar insulin glargine, across multiple continents and countries. Results: There was considerable variation in the use of long-acting insulin analogues as a percentage of all insulins prescribed and dispensed across countries and continents. This ranged from limited use of long-acting insulin analogues among African countries compared to routine funding and use across Europe in view of their perceived benefits. Increasing use was also seen among Asian countries including Bangladesh and India for similar reasons. However, concerns with costs and value limited their use across Africa, Brazil and Pakistan. There was though limited use of biosimilar insulin glargine 100 IU/ml compared with other recent biosimilars especially among European countries and Korea. This was principally driven by small price differences in reality between the originator and biosimilars coupled with increasing use of the patented 300 IU/ml formulation. A number of activities were identified to enhance future biosimilar use. These included only reimbursing biosimilar long-acting insulin analogues, introducing prescribing targets and increasing competition among manufacturers including stimulating local production. Conclusions: There are concerns with the availability and use of insulin glargine biosimilars despite lower costs. This can be addressed by multiple activities.

ACS Style

Brian Godman; Mainul Haque; Trudy Leong; Eleonora Allocati; Santosh Kumar; Salequl Islam; Jaykaran Charan; Farhana Akter; Amanj Kurdi; Carlos Vassalo; Muhammed Abu Bakar; Sagir Abdur Rahim; Nusrat Sultana; Farzana Deeba; M. A. Halim Khan; A. B. M. Muksudul Alam; Iffat Jahan; Zubair Mahmood Kamal; Humaira Hasin; Munzur- E- Murshid; Shamsun Nahar; Monami Haque; Siddhartha Dutta; Jha Pallavi Abhayanand; Rimple Jeet Kaur; Godfrey Mutashambara Rwegerera; Renata Cristina Rezende Macedo Do Nascimento; Isabella Piassi Dias Godói; Mohammed Irfan; Adefolarin A. Amu; Patrick Matowa; Joseph Acolatse; Robert Incoom; Israel Abebrese Sefah; Jitendra Acharya; Sylvia Opanga; Lisper Wangeci Njeri; David Kimonge; Hye-Young Kwon; Seungjin Bae; Karen Koh Pek Khuan; Abdullahi Rabiu Abubakar; Ibrahim Haruna Sani; Tanveer Ahmed Khan; Shahzad Hussain; Zikria Saleem; Oliver Ombeva Malande; Thereza Piloya-Were; Rosana Gambogi; Carla Hernandez Ortiz; Luke Alutuli; Aubrey Chichonyi Kalungia; Iris Hoxha; Vanda Marković-Peković; Biljana Tubic; Guenka Petrova; Konstantin Tachkov; Ott Laius; András Harsanyi; András Inotai; Arianit Jakupi; Svens Henkuzens; Kristina Garuoliene; Jolanta Gulbinovič; Magdalene Wladysiuk; Jakub Rutkowski; Ileana Mardare; Jurij Fürst; Stuart McTaggart; Sean MacBride-Stewart; Caridad Pontes; Corinne Zara; Eunice Twumwaa Tagoe; Rita Banzi; Janney Wale; Mihajlo Jakovljevic. The Current Situation Regarding Long-Acting Insulin Analogues Including Biosimilars Among African, Asian, European, and South American Countries; Findings and Implications for the Future. Frontiers in Public Health 2021, 9, 1 .

AMA Style

Brian Godman, Mainul Haque, Trudy Leong, Eleonora Allocati, Santosh Kumar, Salequl Islam, Jaykaran Charan, Farhana Akter, Amanj Kurdi, Carlos Vassalo, Muhammed Abu Bakar, Sagir Abdur Rahim, Nusrat Sultana, Farzana Deeba, M. A. Halim Khan, A. B. M. Muksudul Alam, Iffat Jahan, Zubair Mahmood Kamal, Humaira Hasin, Munzur- E- Murshid, Shamsun Nahar, Monami Haque, Siddhartha Dutta, Jha Pallavi Abhayanand, Rimple Jeet Kaur, Godfrey Mutashambara Rwegerera, Renata Cristina Rezende Macedo Do Nascimento, Isabella Piassi Dias Godói, Mohammed Irfan, Adefolarin A. Amu, Patrick Matowa, Joseph Acolatse, Robert Incoom, Israel Abebrese Sefah, Jitendra Acharya, Sylvia Opanga, Lisper Wangeci Njeri, David Kimonge, Hye-Young Kwon, Seungjin Bae, Karen Koh Pek Khuan, Abdullahi Rabiu Abubakar, Ibrahim Haruna Sani, Tanveer Ahmed Khan, Shahzad Hussain, Zikria Saleem, Oliver Ombeva Malande, Thereza Piloya-Were, Rosana Gambogi, Carla Hernandez Ortiz, Luke Alutuli, Aubrey Chichonyi Kalungia, Iris Hoxha, Vanda Marković-Peković, Biljana Tubic, Guenka Petrova, Konstantin Tachkov, Ott Laius, András Harsanyi, András Inotai, Arianit Jakupi, Svens Henkuzens, Kristina Garuoliene, Jolanta Gulbinovič, Magdalene Wladysiuk, Jakub Rutkowski, Ileana Mardare, Jurij Fürst, Stuart McTaggart, Sean MacBride-Stewart, Caridad Pontes, Corinne Zara, Eunice Twumwaa Tagoe, Rita Banzi, Janney Wale, Mihajlo Jakovljevic. The Current Situation Regarding Long-Acting Insulin Analogues Including Biosimilars Among African, Asian, European, and South American Countries; Findings and Implications for the Future. Frontiers in Public Health. 2021; 9 ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Brian Godman; Mainul Haque; Trudy Leong; Eleonora Allocati; Santosh Kumar; Salequl Islam; Jaykaran Charan; Farhana Akter; Amanj Kurdi; Carlos Vassalo; Muhammed Abu Bakar; Sagir Abdur Rahim; Nusrat Sultana; Farzana Deeba; M. A. Halim Khan; A. B. M. Muksudul Alam; Iffat Jahan; Zubair Mahmood Kamal; Humaira Hasin; Munzur- E- Murshid; Shamsun Nahar; Monami Haque; Siddhartha Dutta; Jha Pallavi Abhayanand; Rimple Jeet Kaur; Godfrey Mutashambara Rwegerera; Renata Cristina Rezende Macedo Do Nascimento; Isabella Piassi Dias Godói; Mohammed Irfan; Adefolarin A. Amu; Patrick Matowa; Joseph Acolatse; Robert Incoom; Israel Abebrese Sefah; Jitendra Acharya; Sylvia Opanga; Lisper Wangeci Njeri; David Kimonge; Hye-Young Kwon; Seungjin Bae; Karen Koh Pek Khuan; Abdullahi Rabiu Abubakar; Ibrahim Haruna Sani; Tanveer Ahmed Khan; Shahzad Hussain; Zikria Saleem; Oliver Ombeva Malande; Thereza Piloya-Were; Rosana Gambogi; Carla Hernandez Ortiz; Luke Alutuli; Aubrey Chichonyi Kalungia; Iris Hoxha; Vanda Marković-Peković; Biljana Tubic; Guenka Petrova; Konstantin Tachkov; Ott Laius; András Harsanyi; András Inotai; Arianit Jakupi; Svens Henkuzens; Kristina Garuoliene; Jolanta Gulbinovič; Magdalene Wladysiuk; Jakub Rutkowski; Ileana Mardare; Jurij Fürst; Stuart McTaggart; Sean MacBride-Stewart; Caridad Pontes; Corinne Zara; Eunice Twumwaa Tagoe; Rita Banzi; Janney Wale; Mihajlo Jakovljevic. 2021. "The Current Situation Regarding Long-Acting Insulin Analogues Including Biosimilars Among African, Asian, European, and South American Countries; Findings and Implications for the Future." Frontiers in Public Health 9, no. : 1.

Editorial article
Published: 18 June 2021 in Frontiers in Public Health
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Editorial on the Research Topic NCDs – Core Challenge of Modern Day Health Care Establishments We have seen the global burden of disease shift significantly from communicable diseases to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) over the past few decades (1). This is happening partly due to the changing demographics with the aging of the population. The third demographic transition or the “Silver Tsunami” has historically began in the Western nations. Later on it has spread worldwide to become a global phenomenon. Another driver of NCDs incidence rise is changing lifestyles of people making cardiovascular diseases the biggest cause of mortality worldwide. There has also been a steady rise in deaths due to cancers, road traffic accidents, and mental health conditions (2). All of these disorders and injuries now feature among the top 10 causes of death globally. This has also meant a so-called “double burden” for low and middle-income countries (LMICs) where both communicable diseases and NCDs coexist together (3). It was predicted that by 2020 seven out of 10 deaths in developing countries will be attributed to NCDs. Thus, now the significant reallocation of funds is needed to effectively support the treatment and management of these populations in the future. There is an ongoing shift to a chronic disease management model from acute care (4). Such a profound evolution of medical care demand, has serious economic implications and needs a complete re-shaping and re-configuring of healthcare financing mechanisms within most contemporary health systems in the upcoming 2020s (5). Significant challenges are foreseen in LMICs where infrastructure for care is still primarily driven by the infectious disease model and as long-term continued care is needed for the treatment of NCDs, is still at odds with the out-of-pocket payment models common in LMICs, which presents serious challenges (6). It is expected that this transition in health care demand may push developing countries further into poverty (7). Possible exit reform strategies assume development of brand new public funding mechanisms and appropriate public-private partnerships (8). To make the challenge of effective long-term reform even harsher, the ongoing pandemic itself has put these national systems to the test of fiscal sustainability. This coupling of NCDs with communicable diseases has become even more evident with the COVID-19 pandemic where increased anxiety and mental health problems related to income and job loss were seen in Thailand (9), increased suicidal attempts in Austria (10) and increased anxiety and depression globally (11). There has also been an increase in social economic status disadvantage where the poor will disproportionately bear the long-term economic effects of this pandemic (12) and so health systems need to ensure equity in access to care and services. The manuscript submission entitled: “Avoidable Cancer Mortality in Germany Since Reunification: Regional Variation and Sex Differences” dealt with the “traditional” East-West gap in preventable cancer mortality. It appears that it is still evident in males, while more regional diversity is obviously present in avoidable cancer mortality in women. North-south divide in avoidable cancer mortality shapes the future trends in Germany Westerman and Mühlichen. Considering the key factors underlying NCDs such as income inequality and insecure employment, much attention must be paid to unhealthy commercial industries (UCIs) producing tobacco, alcohol, and low-nutrient foods. NCDs should be reframed as the product of a complex system which includes UCIs (13). Contribution by Arora et al. “The Indian Bidi Industry: Trends in Employment and Wage Differentials,” explored trends in employment and wages in the bidi industry using secondary data from the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) and the Central Statistics Office (CSO), Government of India–the Annual Survey of Industries (ASI), and Enterprises Survey. Conclusive remarks claim that Bidi workers earn much less compared to workers in other manufacturing industries and are subject to income inequality (Arora et al.). Ksatri et al. conducted extensive research: “Prevalence and Patterns of Multimorbidity Among Rural Elderly: Findings of the AHSETS Study.” Their observation was that in India, the proportion of older population is projected to increase from 8% in 2015 to 19% in 2050 and a third of the country's population will be older adults by end of the century. Their findings reveal overall prevalence of multimorbidity of 48.8% of which dyads (25%) were the most common form, followed by triads (15.2%) (Kshatri et al.). The next contribution coming from India has been dealing with corona pandemic. Pati et al. claim that continuation of preventive and management services of NCDs in tandem with COVID-19 containment measures should additionally include self-care and multimorbidity literacy toward patient activation. This research from the Khurda district of Odisha, revealed a higher presence of multimorbidity in younger population (40–60 years). Authors concluded that region-specific pandemic healthcare preparedness plans should necessarily incorporate measures to reduce risk of infection with mental healthcare and NCD management elements, while resuming economic-activity (Pati et al.). Turrini et al. have published another surprisingly interesting contribution within the Topic in March 2021. Authors propose synergistic collaboration between CREA Research Center for Food and Nutrition and the Italian National Health Institute (ISS) to be promoted and supported by the Italian Ministry of Health. They believe such a health policy approach would support setting up a nutritional surveillance system (Turrini et al.). Pati et al. have studied 500 adult patients admitted to the psychiatric clinic throughout cross-sectional study design...

ACS Style

Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Tarang Sharma; Narimasa Kumagai; Seiritsu Ogura. Editorial: NCDs – Core Challenge of Modern Day Health Care Establishments. Frontiers in Public Health 2021, 9, 1 .

AMA Style

Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Tarang Sharma, Narimasa Kumagai, Seiritsu Ogura. Editorial: NCDs – Core Challenge of Modern Day Health Care Establishments. Frontiers in Public Health. 2021; 9 ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Tarang Sharma; Narimasa Kumagai; Seiritsu Ogura. 2021. "Editorial: NCDs – Core Challenge of Modern Day Health Care Establishments." Frontiers in Public Health 9, no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 11 June 2021 in Bioengineering
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The use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) is a great contribution to medical studies since the application of forecasting concepts allows for the analysis of future diseases propagation. In this context, this paper presents a study of the new coronavirus SARS-COV-2 with a focus on verifying the virus propagation associated with mitigation procedures and massive vaccination campaigns. There were two proposed methodologies in making predictions 28 days ahead for the number of new cases, deaths, and ICU patients of five European countries: Portugal, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Germany. A case study of the results of massive immunization in Israel was also considered. The data input of cases, deaths, and daily ICU patients was normalized to reduce discrepant numbers due to the countries’ size and the cumulative vaccination values by the percentage of population immunized (with at least one dose of the vaccine). As a comparative criterion, the calculation of the mean absolute error (MAE) of all predictions presents the best methodology, targeting other possibilities of use for the method proposed. The best architecture achieved a general MAE for the 1-to-28-day ahead forecast, which is lower than 30 cases, 0.6 deaths, and 2.5 ICU patients per million people.

ACS Style

Kathleen Carvalho; João Vicente; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; João Teixeira. Analysis and Forecasting Incidence, Intensive Care Unit Admissions, and Projected Mortality Attributable to COVID-19 in Portugal, the UK, Germany, Italy, and France: Predictions for 4 Weeks Ahead. Bioengineering 2021, 8, 84 .

AMA Style

Kathleen Carvalho, João Vicente, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, João Teixeira. Analysis and Forecasting Incidence, Intensive Care Unit Admissions, and Projected Mortality Attributable to COVID-19 in Portugal, the UK, Germany, Italy, and France: Predictions for 4 Weeks Ahead. Bioengineering. 2021; 8 (6):84.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kathleen Carvalho; João Vicente; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; João Teixeira. 2021. "Analysis and Forecasting Incidence, Intensive Care Unit Admissions, and Projected Mortality Attributable to COVID-19 in Portugal, the UK, Germany, Italy, and France: Predictions for 4 Weeks Ahead." Bioengineering 8, no. 6: 84.

Editorial article
Published: 07 June 2021 in Frontiers in Public Health
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Editorial on the Research Topic: Accelerated Globalization and Its Impact to the World's Health Care Achievement The traditional world economic order was inherited from the Colonial Age, with an assumed hierarchy of rich industrialized nations from the Northern hemisphere and largely poorer and underdeveloped nations in the Southern hemisphere. Capital investment and technology dissemination has historically moved southwards. Production of quality goods and services has occurred in the Global South using local affordable and skilled labor, while the same goods and services were mostly consumed by rich customers coming from the Global North or exported northwards to these same regions. Over the course of several consecutive industrial revolutions this mainstream flow remained prominent and visible throughout most of the XVIII–XX centuries (1). This traditional pattern met a serious challenge during the post-WWII decades. The Cold War lasted for 45 years and brought heavy industrial development among the so-called Second World socialist economies led by the USSR. Many of the cutting-edge technologies of the time were disseminated by state-sponsored talent breeding programs in communist countries with the space and military industries being the most prominent examples (2). In 1989–1991 the era of the Cold War ended, and there was an acceleration of globalization worldwide driven to a large extent by commercial interests of powerful multinational businesses, but with very little dissemination of health-related technologies. Among the consequences of this change were market-driven dissemination of industrial technologies toward many of the historically under-developed economies, combined with an outsourcing of manufacturing to these areas. A milestone example of this profound change was the economic reforms introduced by Deng Xiaoping in the People's Republic of China in 1978, which has resulted in China following an exceptionally upward economic pathway since 1989 (3). Changes taking place over the next 30 years shall gradually become known as the Rise of Emerging Markets led by the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China) (4). Few other LMICs nations such as Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam remain characterized by long term rapid real GDP growth but at significantly smaller scale of national economies (5). Happening alongside an economic slowdown in Western economies, particularly since the last global recession of 2007–2017, this evolution has changed the entire global macroeconomic landscape and reflects heavily in the health care arena. A recently released Brookings Institute report based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) data provides a clear illustration of this change. The report observes that EM7 nations (seven major emerging markets: BRIC + Turkey, Indonesia, and Mexico) have contributed one-half of the world's economic growth (in terms of real GDP growth rates) in comparison to G7 countries (USA, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Canada, Italy), which have contributed jointly to only one-quarter of the world's growth in 2018–2019 (6). To emphasize this point further, at a previous Davos forum (7) it was stated that in the past decade China, as the classical case of an economic overachiever, contributed alone to approximately one-third of all global economic growth. This shift means that now we have an acceleration of South-South global trade. Major investors in the most rapidly developing world regions do not typically come from major Western, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member economies, or Japan anymore (8). Instead, such capital and technology investments frequently are outsourced from China, India, Russia, or Middle Eastern countries. It is noteworthy to highlight that these South-South trade-flows include pharmaceutical ingredients and products incl. their manufacturing (India is an example of the global powerhouse in generics—copycat medicines manufacturing), affordable medical technologies, health-related tourism, but not yet health services. Huge chunk of this demand for health services is outsourcing from a massive growth of Non-communicable Diseases related morbidity across the Global South and LMICs nations (9). In the sense of these upcoming challenges and long term shortage of disposable resources to be allocated, cost-effective health care has become essential (10). Ongoing pandemics has essentially made these capacities overstretched even more (11). This Research Topic was created in order to address the core challenges created by globalization for national health and socioeconomic systems worldwide (12). The ongoing 4.0 Industrial Revolution, robotics, and internet addiction issues are among its prominent consequences (13). Throughout its life cycle it has attracted a total of four contributions. First one of them entitled: “Bootstrap ARDL on Health Expenditure, CO2 Emissions, and GDP Growth Relationship for 18 OECD Countries” has brought a surprising perspective on the dynamic relationship among CO2 emissions, health care expenditure, and GDP growth for the 18 OECD countries over the period of 1975–2017. In their conclusive remarks authors observe that limitations of national CO2 emissions remain the mainstay of OECD countries policies. Recommendations were to adopt measures and policies to protect the quality of the environment to reduce the occurrence of health diseases (Wang et al.). Another contribution entitled: “Realization of the EU's Cohesion Policy in Health Care in the Visegrad Group Countries in the Perspective 2014–2020.” An overview of European Union's cohesion policy in the field of health care was provided for Poland, the Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic and Hungary—the Visegrad Group–VG4—in the period of 2014–2020. The VG4 countries appears to have distinctive benefits from these EU...

ACS Style

Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Márta Péntek; Tissa Wijeratne; Guvenc Kockaya; Louis-François Pau. Editorial: Accelerated Globalization and Its Impact to the World's Health Care Achievement. Frontiers in Public Health 2021, 9, 1 .

AMA Style

Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Márta Péntek, Tissa Wijeratne, Guvenc Kockaya, Louis-François Pau. Editorial: Accelerated Globalization and Its Impact to the World's Health Care Achievement. Frontiers in Public Health. 2021; 9 ():1.

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Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Márta Péntek; Tissa Wijeratne; Guvenc Kockaya; Louis-François Pau. 2021. "Editorial: Accelerated Globalization and Its Impact to the World's Health Care Achievement." Frontiers in Public Health 9, no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 01 June 2021 in The Lancet HIV
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Summary Background High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. Methods In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000–18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit. Findings The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1–3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4–1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7–0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6–888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8–8120·3]) cases per 100 000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0–1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81·1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020. Interpretation Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

ACS Style

Benn Sartorius; John D VanderHeide; Mingyou Yang; Erik A Goosmann; Julia Hon; Emily Haeuser; Michael A Cork; Samantha Perkins; Deepa Jahagirdar; Lauren E Schaeffer; Audrey L Serfes; Kate E LeGrand; Hedayat Abbastabar; Zeleke Hailemariam Abebo; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Oladimeji M Adebayo; Adeyinka Emmanuel Adegbosin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O Adetokunboh; Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Keivan Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Yonas Akalu; Oluwaseun Oladapo Akinyemi; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Addis Aklilu; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Noore Alam; Alehegn Aderaw Alamneh; Turki M Alanzi; Biresaw Wassihun Alemu; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Tilahun Ali; Vahid Alipour; Saeed Amini; Robert Ancuceanu; Fereshteh Ansari; Zelalem Alamrew Anteneh; Davood Anvari; Razique Anwer; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Mulusew A Asemahagn; Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi; Wondwossen Niguse Asmare; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Maha Moh'D Wahbi Atout; Alok Atreya; Marcel Ausloos; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Muluken Altaye Ayza; Samad Azari; Zelalem Nigussie Azene; Zaheer-Ud-Din Babar; Atif Amin Baig; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Maciej Banach; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Sanjay Basu; Mohsen Bayati; Neeraj Bedi; Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma; Woldesellassie M Mequanint Bezabhe; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Sadia Bibi; Boris Bikbov; Tsegaye Adane Birhan; Zebenay Workneh Bitew; Moses John Bockarie; Archith Boloor; Oliver J Brady; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A Butt; Rosario Cárdenas; Felix Carvalho; Jaykaran Charan; Souranshu Chatterjee; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Aubrey J Cook; Natalie Maria Cormier; Richard G Cowden; Carlos Culquichicon; Baye Dagnew; Saad M A Dahlawi; Giovanni Damiani; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Farah Daoud; Ahmad Daryani; José das Neves; Nicole Davis Weaver; Meseret Derbew Molla; Kebede Deribe; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Keshab Deuba; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Paul Narh Doku; Eleonora Dubljanin; Bereket Duko; Arielle Wilder Eagan; Lucas Earl; Jeffrey W Eaton; Andem Effiong; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Maha El Tantawi; Rajesh Elayedath; Shaimaa I El-Jaafary; Aisha Elsharkawy; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Oghenowede Eyawo; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi; Alebachew Fasil; Nelsensius Klau Fauk; Valery L Feigin; Tomas Y Ferede; Eduarda Fernandes; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Joel Msafiri Francis; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M Gad; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Birhan Gebresillassie Gebregiorgis; Berhe Gebremichael; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Lemma Getacher; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Syed Amir Gilani; Themba G Ginindza; Mustefa Glagn; Mahaveer Golechha; Philimon N Gona; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Harish Chander Gugnani; Davide Guido; Rashid Abdi Guled; Brian J Hall; Samer Hamidi; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Arief Hargono; Abdiwahab Hashi; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Claudiu Herteliu; Hagos Degefa de Hidru; Ramesh Holla; H Dean Hosgood; Naznin Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mowafa Househ; Bing-Fang Hwang; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Chidozie C D Iwu; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu; Vardhmaan Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Farzad Jalilian; Ravi Prakash Jha; Kimberly B Johnson; Vasna Joshua; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Ali Kabir; Leila R Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Ashwin Kamath; Naser Kamyari; Tanuj Kanchan; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Salah Eddin Karimi; Ayele Semachew Kasa; Getinet Kassahun; Gbenga A Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Bayew Kelkay; Nauman Khalid; Gulfaraz Khan; Junaid Khan; Nuruzzaman Khan; Khaled Khatab; Salman Khazaei; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Sonali Kochhar; Jacek A Kopec; Soewarta Kosen; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Nuworza Kugbey; Vaman Kulkarni; Manasi Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Om P Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Desmond Kuupiel; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Carlo La Vecchia; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Jennifer O Lam; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Jeffrey V Lazarus; Alice Lazzar-Atwood; Paul H Lee; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Bingyu Li; Xuefeng Liu; Platon D Lopukhov; Hawraz Ibrahim M. Amin; Deepak Madi; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Azeem Majeed; Afshin Maleki; Shokofeh Maleki; Abdullah A Mamun; Navid Manafi; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Benjamin K Mayala; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Hailemariam Abiy Alemu Meheretu; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Mulugeta Melku; Walter Mendoza; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Tuomo J Meretoja; Abera M Mersha; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ted R Miller; Andreea Mirica; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Osama Mohamad; Yousef Mohammad; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Salahuddin Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H Mokdad; Taklu Marama Mokonnon; Mariam Molokhia; Masoud Moradi; Yousef Moradi; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Jonathan F Mosser; Sandra B Munro; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Mohsen Naghavi; Muhammad Naveed; Vinod C Nayak; Javad Nazari; Rawlance Ndejjo; Samata Nepal; Henok Biresaw Netsere; Frida N Ngalesoni; Georges Nguefack-Tsague; Josephine W Ngunjiri; Yeshambel T Nigatu; Samuel Negash Nigussie; Chukwudi A Nnaji; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T Olagunju; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Muktar Omer Omer; Abidemi E Emmanuel Omonisi; Obinna E Onwujekwe; Orish Ebere Orisakwe; Nikita Otstavnov; Mayowa O Owolabi; Mahesh P A; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Adrian Pana; Seithikurippu R Pandi-Perumal; Urvish K Patel; Mona Pathak; George C Patton; Shrikant Pawar; Emmanuel K Peprah; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Maarten J Postma; Faheem Hyder Pottoo; Hadi Pourjafar; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Pradhum Ram; Juwel Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Satish Rao; Sowmya J Rao; Priya Rathi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Vishnu Renjith; Melese Abate Reta; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Ana Isabel Ribeiro; Jennifer M Ross; Susan Fred Rumisha; Rajesh Sagar; Maitreyi Sahu; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Marwa Rashad Salem; Abdallah M Samy; Brijesh Sathian; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Feng Sha; Omid Shafaat; Mohammad Shahbaz; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mohammed Feyisso Shaka; Aziz Sheikh; Kenji Shibuya; Jae Il Shin; K M Shivakumar; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Jasvinder A Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Amin Soheili; Shahin Soltani; Oluwaseyi Dolapo Somefun; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Biruk Wogayehu Taddele; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Zemenu Tamir; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Frank C Tanser; Nuno Taveira; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Yohannes Tekalegn; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Belay Tessema; Zemenu Tadesse Tessema; Bhaskar Thakur; Musliu Adetola Tolani; Roman Topor-Madry; Marco Torrado; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Alexander C Tsai; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Irfan Ullah; Saif Ullah; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Constantine Vardavas; Francesco S Violante; Bay Vo; Yohannes Dibaba Wado; Yasir Waheed; Richard G Wamai; Yanzhong Wang; Paul Ward; Andrea Werdecker; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Tissa Wijeratne; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Temesgen Gebeyehu Wondmeneh; Tomohide Yamada; Sanni Yaya; Yigizie Yeshaw; Yordanos Gizachew Yeshitila; Mekdes Tigistu Yilma; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Tewodros Yosef; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Syed Saoud Zaidi; Leila Zaki; Maryam Zamanian; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Dejene Tesfaye Zewdie; Yunquan Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Arash Ziapour; Simon I Hay; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren. Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18: a modelling study. The Lancet HIV 2021, 8, e363 -e375.

AMA Style

Benn Sartorius, John D VanderHeide, Mingyou Yang, Erik A Goosmann, Julia Hon, Emily Haeuser, Michael A Cork, Samantha Perkins, Deepa Jahagirdar, Lauren E Schaeffer, Audrey L Serfes, Kate E LeGrand, Hedayat Abbastabar, Zeleke Hailemariam Abebo, Akine Eshete Abosetugn, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi, Oladimeji M Adebayo, Adeyinka Emmanuel Adegbosin, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji O Adetokunboh, Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Keivan Ahmadi, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Yonas Akalu, Oluwaseun Oladapo Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Akinyemi, Addis Aklilu, Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna, Fares Alahdab, Ziyad Al-Aly, Noore Alam, Alehegn Aderaw Alamneh, Turki M Alanzi, Biresaw Wassihun Alemu, Robert Kaba Alhassan, Tilahun Ali, Vahid Alipour, Saeed Amini, Robert Ancuceanu, Fereshteh Ansari, Zelalem Alamrew Anteneh, Davood Anvari, Razique Anwer, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Jalal Arabloo, Mulusew A Asemahagn, Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi, Wondwossen Niguse Asmare, Desta Debalkie Atnafu, Maha Moh'D Wahbi Atout, Alok Atreya, Marcel Ausloos, Atalel Fentahun Awedew, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Yared Asmare Aynalem, Muluken Altaye Ayza, Samad Azari, Zelalem Nigussie Azene, Zaheer-Ud-Din Babar, Atif Amin Baig, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Maciej Banach, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Sanjay Basu, Mohsen Bayati, Neeraj Bedi, Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma, Woldesellassie M Mequanint Bezabhe, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Sadia Bibi, Boris Bikbov, Tsegaye Adane Birhan, Zebenay Workneh Bitew, Moses John Bockarie, Archith Boloor, Oliver J Brady, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Andrey Nikolaevich Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich Briko, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Zahid A Butt, Rosario Cárdenas, Felix Carvalho, Jaykaran Charan, Souranshu Chatterjee, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury, Dinh-Toi Chu, Aubrey J Cook, Natalie Maria Cormier, Richard G Cowden, Carlos Culquichicon, Baye Dagnew, Saad M A Dahlawi, Giovanni Damiani, Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad, Farah Daoud, Ahmad Daryani, José das Neves, Nicole Davis Weaver, Meseret Derbew Molla, Kebede Deribe, Abebaw Alemayehu Desta, Keshab Deuba, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Daniel Diaz, Shirin Djalalinia, Paul Narh Doku, Eleonora Dubljanin, Bereket Duko, Arielle Wilder Eagan, Lucas Earl, Jeffrey W Eaton, Andem Effiong, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Maha El Tantawi, Rajesh Elayedath, Shaimaa I El-Jaafary, Aisha Elsharkawy, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Oghenowede Eyawo, Sayeh Ezzikouri, Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi, Alebachew Fasil, Nelsensius Klau Fauk, Valery L Feigin, Tomas Y Ferede, Eduarda Fernandes, Florian Fischer, Nataliya A Foigt, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Masoud Foroutan, Joel Msafiri Francis, Takeshi Fukumoto, Mohamed M Gad, Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam, Birhan Gebresillassie Gebregiorgis, Berhe Gebremichael, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Lemma Getacher, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Syed Amir Gilani, Themba G Ginindza, Mustefa Glagn, Mahaveer Golechha, Philimon N Gona, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Harish Chander Gugnani, Davide Guido, Rashid Abdi Guled, Brian J Hall, Samer Hamidi, Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso, Arief Hargono, Abdiwahab Hashi, Soheil Hassanipour, Hadi Hassankhani, Khezar Hayat, Claudiu Herteliu, Hagos Degefa de Hidru, Ramesh Holla, H Dean Hosgood, Naznin Hossain, Mostafa Hosseini, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mowafa Househ, Bing-Fang Hwang, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena M Ilic, Milena D Ilic, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Chidozie C D Iwu, Chinwe Juliana Iwu, Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu, Vardhmaan Jain, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Farzad Jalilian, Ravi Prakash Jha, Kimberly B Johnson, Vasna Joshua, Farahnaz Joukar, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Ali Kabir, Leila R Kalankesh, Rohollah Kalhor, Ashwin Kamath, Naser Kamyari, Tanuj Kanchan, Behzad Karami Matin, André Karch, Salah Eddin Karimi, Ayele Semachew Kasa, Getinet Kassahun, Gbenga A Kayode, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Bayew Kelkay, Nauman Khalid, Gulfaraz Khan, Junaid Khan, Nuruzzaman Khan, Khaled Khatab, Salman Khazaei, Yun Jin Kim, Adnan Kisa, Sezer Kisa, Sonali Kochhar, Jacek A Kopec, Soewarta Kosen, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Nuworza Kugbey, Vaman Kulkarni, Manasi Kumar, Nithin Kumar, Om P Kurmi, Dian Kusuma, Desmond Kuupiel, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, Carlo La Vecchia, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Jennifer O Lam, Iván Landires, Savita Lasrado, Jeffrey V Lazarus, Alice Lazzar-Atwood, Paul H Lee, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Bingyu Li, Xuefeng Liu, Platon D Lopukhov, Hawraz Ibrahim M. Amin, Deepak Madi, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Azeem Majeed, Afshin Maleki, Shokofeh Maleki, Abdullah A Mamun, Navid Manafi, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi, Benjamin K Mayala, Birhanu Geta Meharie, Hailemariam Abiy Alemu Meheretu, Hagazi Gebre Meles, Mulugeta Melku, Walter Mendoza, Endalkachew Worku Mengesha, Tuomo J Meretoja, Abera M Mersha, Tomislav Mestrovic, Ted R Miller, Andreea Mirica, Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh, Osama Mohamad, Yousef Mohammad, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Jemal Abdu Mohammed, Salahuddin Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H Mokdad, Taklu Marama Mokonnon, Mariam Molokhia, Masoud Moradi, Yousef Moradi, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Paula Moraga, Jonathan F Mosser, Sandra B Munro, Ghulam Mustafa, Saravanan Muthupandian, Mehdi Naderi, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Mohsen Naghavi, Muhammad Naveed, Vinod C Nayak, Javad Nazari, Rawlance Ndejjo, Samata Nepal, Henok Biresaw Netsere, Frida N Ngalesoni, Georges Nguefack-Tsague, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Yeshambel T Nigatu, Samuel Negash Nigussie, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Virginia Nuñez-Samudio, Bogdan Oancea, Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Olanrewaju Oladimeji, Andrew T Olagunju, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Muktar Omer Omer, Abidemi E Emmanuel Omonisi, Obinna E Onwujekwe, Orish Ebere Orisakwe, Nikita Otstavnov, Mayowa O Owolabi, Mahesh P A, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Smita Pakhale, Adrian Pana, Seithikurippu R Pandi-Perumal, Urvish K Patel, Mona Pathak, George C Patton, Shrikant Pawar, Emmanuel K Peprah, Khem Narayan Pokhrel, Maarten J Postma, Faheem Hyder Pottoo, Hadi Pourjafar, Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi, Zahiruddin Quazi Syed, Alireza Rafiei, Fakher Rahim, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Pradhum Ram, Juwel Rana, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Satish Rao, Sowmya J Rao, Priya Rathi, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Reza Rawassizadeh, Vishnu Renjith, Melese Abate Reta, Nima Rezaei, Aziz Rezapour, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Jennifer M Ross, Susan Fred Rumisha, Rajesh Sagar, Maitreyi Sahu, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Marwa Rashad Salem, Abdallah M Samy, Brijesh Sathian, Aletta Elisabeth Schutte, Abdul-Aziz Seidu, Feng Sha, Omid Shafaat, Mohammad Shahbaz, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mohammed Feyisso Shaka, Aziz Sheikh, Kenji Shibuya, Jae Il Shin, K M Shivakumar, Negussie Boti Sidemo, Jasvinder A Singh, Valentin Yurievich Skryabin, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Amin Soheili, Shahin Soltani, Oluwaseyi Dolapo Somefun, Muluken Bekele Sorrie, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Biruk Wogayehu Taddele, Eyayou Girma Tadesse, Zemenu Tamir, Animut Tagele Tamiru, Frank C Tanser, Nuno Taveira, Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi, Yohannes Tekalegn, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Belay Tessema, Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, Bhaskar Thakur, Musliu Adetola Tolani, Roman Topor-Madry, Marco Torrado, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Eugenio Traini, Alexander C Tsai, Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye, Irfan Ullah, Saif Ullah, Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Constantine Vardavas, Francesco S Violante, Bay Vo, Yohannes Dibaba Wado, Yasir Waheed, Richard G Wamai, Yanzhong Wang, Paul Ward, Andrea Werdecker, Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe, Tissa Wijeratne, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Temesgen Gebeyehu Wondmeneh, Tomohide Yamada, Sanni Yaya, Yigizie Yeshaw, Yordanos Gizachew Yeshitila, Mekdes Tigistu Yilma, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Tewodros Yosef, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Syed Saoud Zaidi, Leila Zaki, Maryam Zamanian, Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin, Anasthasia Zastrozhina, Dejene Tesfaye Zewdie, Yunquan Zhang, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Arash Ziapour, Simon I Hay, Laura Dwyer-Lindgren. Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18: a modelling study. The Lancet HIV. 2021; 8 (6):e363-e375.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Benn Sartorius; John D VanderHeide; Mingyou Yang; Erik A Goosmann; Julia Hon; Emily Haeuser; Michael A Cork; Samantha Perkins; Deepa Jahagirdar; Lauren E Schaeffer; Audrey L Serfes; Kate E LeGrand; Hedayat Abbastabar; Zeleke Hailemariam Abebo; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Oladimeji M Adebayo; Adeyinka Emmanuel Adegbosin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O Adetokunboh; Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Keivan Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Yonas Akalu; Oluwaseun Oladapo Akinyemi; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Addis Aklilu; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Noore Alam; Alehegn Aderaw Alamneh; Turki M Alanzi; Biresaw Wassihun Alemu; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Tilahun Ali; Vahid Alipour; Saeed Amini; Robert Ancuceanu; Fereshteh Ansari; Zelalem Alamrew Anteneh; Davood Anvari; Razique Anwer; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Mulusew A Asemahagn; Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi; Wondwossen Niguse Asmare; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Maha Moh'D Wahbi Atout; Alok Atreya; Marcel Ausloos; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Muluken Altaye Ayza; Samad Azari; Zelalem Nigussie Azene; Zaheer-Ud-Din Babar; Atif Amin Baig; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Maciej Banach; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Sanjay Basu; Mohsen Bayati; Neeraj Bedi; Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma; Woldesellassie M Mequanint Bezabhe; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Sadia Bibi; Boris Bikbov; Tsegaye Adane Birhan; Zebenay Workneh Bitew; Moses John Bockarie; Archith Boloor; Oliver J Brady; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A Butt; Rosario Cárdenas; Felix Carvalho; Jaykaran Charan; Souranshu Chatterjee; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Aubrey J Cook; Natalie Maria Cormier; Richard G Cowden; Carlos Culquichicon; Baye Dagnew; Saad M A Dahlawi; Giovanni Damiani; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Farah Daoud; Ahmad Daryani; José das Neves; Nicole Davis Weaver; Meseret Derbew Molla; Kebede Deribe; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Keshab Deuba; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Paul Narh Doku; Eleonora Dubljanin; Bereket Duko; Arielle Wilder Eagan; Lucas Earl; Jeffrey W Eaton; Andem Effiong; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Maha El Tantawi; Rajesh Elayedath; Shaimaa I El-Jaafary; Aisha Elsharkawy; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Oghenowede Eyawo; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi; Alebachew Fasil; Nelsensius Klau Fauk; Valery L Feigin; Tomas Y Ferede; Eduarda Fernandes; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Joel Msafiri Francis; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M Gad; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Birhan Gebresillassie Gebregiorgis; Berhe Gebremichael; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Lemma Getacher; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Syed Amir Gilani; Themba G Ginindza; Mustefa Glagn; Mahaveer Golechha; Philimon N Gona; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Harish Chander Gugnani; Davide Guido; Rashid Abdi Guled; Brian J Hall; Samer Hamidi; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Arief Hargono; Abdiwahab Hashi; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Claudiu Herteliu; Hagos Degefa de Hidru; Ramesh Holla; H Dean Hosgood; Naznin Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mowafa Househ; Bing-Fang Hwang; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Chidozie C D Iwu; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu; Vardhmaan Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Farzad Jalilian; Ravi Prakash Jha; Kimberly B Johnson; Vasna Joshua; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Ali Kabir; Leila R Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Ashwin Kamath; Naser Kamyari; Tanuj Kanchan; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Salah Eddin Karimi; Ayele Semachew Kasa; Getinet Kassahun; Gbenga A Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Bayew Kelkay; Nauman Khalid; Gulfaraz Khan; Junaid Khan; Nuruzzaman Khan; Khaled Khatab; Salman Khazaei; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Sonali Kochhar; Jacek A Kopec; Soewarta Kosen; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Nuworza Kugbey; Vaman Kulkarni; Manasi Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Om P Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Desmond Kuupiel; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Carlo La Vecchia; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Jennifer O Lam; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Jeffrey V Lazarus; Alice Lazzar-Atwood; Paul H Lee; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Bingyu Li; Xuefeng Liu; Platon D Lopukhov; Hawraz Ibrahim M. Amin; Deepak Madi; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Azeem Majeed; Afshin Maleki; Shokofeh Maleki; Abdullah A Mamun; Navid Manafi; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Benjamin K Mayala; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Hailemariam Abiy Alemu Meheretu; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Mulugeta Melku; Walter Mendoza; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Tuomo J Meretoja; Abera M Mersha; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ted R Miller; Andreea Mirica; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Osama Mohamad; Yousef Mohammad; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Salahuddin Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H Mokdad; Taklu Marama Mokonnon; Mariam Molokhia; Masoud Moradi; Yousef Moradi; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Jonathan F Mosser; Sandra B Munro; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Mohsen Naghavi; Muhammad Naveed; Vinod C Nayak; Javad Nazari; Rawlance Ndejjo; Samata Nepal; Henok Biresaw Netsere; Frida N Ngalesoni; Georges Nguefack-Tsague; Josephine W Ngunjiri; Yeshambel T Nigatu; Samuel Negash Nigussie; Chukwudi A Nnaji; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T Olagunju; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Muktar Omer Omer; Abidemi E Emmanuel Omonisi; Obinna E Onwujekwe; Orish Ebere Orisakwe; Nikita Otstavnov; Mayowa O Owolabi; Mahesh P A; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Adrian Pana; Seithikurippu R Pandi-Perumal; Urvish K Patel; Mona Pathak; George C Patton; Shrikant Pawar; Emmanuel K Peprah; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Maarten J Postma; Faheem Hyder Pottoo; Hadi Pourjafar; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Pradhum Ram; Juwel Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Satish Rao; Sowmya J Rao; Priya Rathi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Vishnu Renjith; Melese Abate Reta; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Ana Isabel Ribeiro; Jennifer M Ross; Susan Fred Rumisha; Rajesh Sagar; Maitreyi Sahu; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Marwa Rashad Salem; Abdallah M Samy; Brijesh Sathian; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Feng Sha; Omid Shafaat; Mohammad Shahbaz; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mohammed Feyisso Shaka; Aziz Sheikh; Kenji Shibuya; Jae Il Shin; K M Shivakumar; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Jasvinder A Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Amin Soheili; Shahin Soltani; Oluwaseyi Dolapo Somefun; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Biruk Wogayehu Taddele; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Zemenu Tamir; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Frank C Tanser; Nuno Taveira; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Yohannes Tekalegn; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Belay Tessema; Zemenu Tadesse Tessema; Bhaskar Thakur; Musliu Adetola Tolani; Roman Topor-Madry; Marco Torrado; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Alexander C Tsai; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Irfan Ullah; Saif Ullah; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Constantine Vardavas; Francesco S Violante; Bay Vo; Yohannes Dibaba Wado; Yasir Waheed; Richard G Wamai; Yanzhong Wang; Paul Ward; Andrea Werdecker; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Tissa Wijeratne; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Temesgen Gebeyehu Wondmeneh; Tomohide Yamada; Sanni Yaya; Yigizie Yeshaw; Yordanos Gizachew Yeshitila; Mekdes Tigistu Yilma; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Tewodros Yosef; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Syed Saoud Zaidi; Leila Zaki; Maryam Zamanian; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Dejene Tesfaye Zewdie; Yunquan Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Arash Ziapour; Simon I Hay; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren. 2021. "Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18: a modelling study." The Lancet HIV 8, no. 6: e363-e375.

Journal article
Published: 27 May 2021 in The Lancet Public Health
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Summary Background Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Methods We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period. Findings In 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15–19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: –1·21% [–1·26 to –1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (−0·94% [–1·72 to –0·14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period. Interpretation Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence. Funding Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

ACS Style

Parkes J Kendrick; Marissa B Reitsma; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Amir Abdoli; Mohammad Abdollahi; Aidin Abedi; E S Abhilash; Victor Aboyans; Oladimeji M Adebayo; Shailesh M Advani; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sohail Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Budi Aji; Yonas Akalu; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M Alanzi; Khalid F Alhabib; Tilahun Ali; Sheikh Mohammad Alif; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Mahmoud A Alomari; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Saeed Amini; Hubert Amu; Robert Ancuceanu; Jason A Anderson; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Benny Antony; Davood Anvari; Jalal Arabloo; Nicholas D Arian; Monika Arora; Kurnia Dwi Artanti; Wondwossen Niguse Asmare; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Marcel Ausloos; Asma Tahir Awan; Getinet Ayano; Getie Lake Aynalem; Samad Azari; Darshan B B; Ashish D Badiye; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Srikanta K Banerjee; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Sanjay Basu; Mohsen Bayati; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma; Derrick A Bennett; Isabela M Bensenor; Habib Benzian; Catherine P Benziger; Adam E Berman; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Neeraj Bhala; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Dejana Braithwaite; Hermann Brenner; Andre R Brunoni; Katrin Burkart; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Josip Car; Giulia Carreras; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Maria Sofia Sofia Cattaruzza; Jung-Chen Chang; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Simiao Chen; Onyema Greg Chido-Amajuoyi; Dinh-Toi Chu; Sheng-Chia Chung; Liliana G Ciobanu; Vera Marisa Costa; Rosa A S Couto; Baye Dagnew; Xiaochen Dai; Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno; Giovanni Damiani; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Jiregna Darega Gela; Meseret Derbew Molla; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Arielle Wilder Eagan; Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan; Kristina Edvardsson; Andem Effiong; Maha El Tantawi; Iffat Elbarazi; Saman Esmaeilnejad; Ibtihal Fadhil; Emerito Jose A Faraon; Medhat Farwati; Farshad Farzadfar; Mehdi Fazlzadeh; Valery L Feigin; Rachel Feldman; Irina Filip; Filippos Filippidis; Florian Fischer; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya A Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Mohamed M Gad; Silvano Gallus; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Birhan Gebresillassie Gebregiorgis; Lemma Getacher; Abera Getachew Obsa; Mansour Ghafourifard; Reza Ghanei Gheshlagh; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Gabriela Fernanda Gil; Paramjit Singh Gill; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Salime Goharinezhad; Mahaveer Golechha; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Giuseppe Gorini; Michal Grivna; Avirup Guha; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Yuming Guo; Rajat Das Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tarun Gupta; Vin Gupta; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Randah R Hamadeh; Graeme J Hankey; Arief Hargono; Simon I Hay; Golnaz Heidari; Claudiu Herteliu; Kamal Hezam; Thomas R Hird; Ramesh Holla; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Thomas Hsiao; Junjie Huang; Charles Ugochukwu Ibeneme; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Jessica Y Islam; Rakibul M Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Hiroyasu Iso; Ramaiah Itumalla; Jalil Jaafari; Vardhmaan Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Sung-In Jang; Shubha Jayaram; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B Jonas; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Leila R Kalankesh; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Neeti Kapoor; André Karch; Salah Eddin Karimi; Kindie Mitiku Kebede; Bayew Kelkay; Ryan David Kennedy; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Gyu Ri Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Mika Kivimäki; Soewarta Kosen; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Nuworza Kugbey; G Anil Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Om P Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Ben Lacey; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Paolo Lauriola; Doo Woong Lee; Yo Han Lee; Janni Leung; Shanshan Li; Hualiang Lin; Wei Liu; Alessandra Lugo; Shilpashree Madhava Kunjathur; Azeem Majeed; Afshin Maleki; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A Mamun; Narayana Manjunatha; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Santi Martini; Manu Raj Mathur; Prashant Mathur; Mohsen Mazidi; Martin McKee; Carlo Eduardo Medina-Solís; Suresh Mehata; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G Menezes; Bartosz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Ted R Miller; Gk Mini; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Hamed Mirzaei; Sanjeev Misra; Yousef Mohammad; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Shane Douglas Morrison; Tilahun Belete Mossie; Sumaira Mubarik; Erin C Mullany; Christopher J L Murray; Shankar Prasad Nagaraju; Mohsen Naghavi; Nitish Naik; Mahdi Nalini; Vinay Nangia; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Muhammad Naveed; Javad Nazari; Sabina O Nduaguba; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Yeshambel T Nigatu; Molly R Nixon; Chukwudi A Nnaji; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Christoph Nowak; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade; In-Hwan Oh; Andrew T Olagunju; Mayowa O O. Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet Public Health 2021, 6, e482 -e499.

AMA Style

Parkes J Kendrick, Marissa B Reitsma, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Amir Abdoli, Mohammad Abdollahi, Aidin Abedi, E S Abhilash, Victor Aboyans, Oladimeji M Adebayo, Shailesh M Advani, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Sohail Ahmad, Keivan Ahmadi, Haroon Ahmed, Budi Aji, Yonas Akalu, Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna, Fares Alahdab, Ziyad Al-Aly, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi, Turki M Alanzi, Khalid F Alhabib, Tilahun Ali, Sheikh Mohammad Alif, Vahid Alipour, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Mahmoud A Alomari, Tarek Tawfik Amin, Saeed Amini, Hubert Amu, Robert Ancuceanu, Jason A Anderson, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam, Benny Antony, Davood Anvari, Jalal Arabloo, Nicholas D Arian, Monika Arora, Kurnia Dwi Artanti, Wondwossen Niguse Asmare, Desta Debalkie Atnafu, Marcel Ausloos, Asma Tahir Awan, Getinet Ayano, Getie Lake Aynalem, Samad Azari, Darshan B B, Ashish D Badiye, Atif Amin Baig, Maciej Banach, Srikanta K Banerjee, Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Hiba Jawdat Barqawi, Sanjay Basu, Mohsen Bayati, Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi, Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma, Derrick A Bennett, Isabela M Bensenor, Habib Benzian, Catherine P Benziger, Adam E Berman, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Neeraj Bhala, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Sadia Bibi, Ali Bijani, Antonio Biondi, Dejana Braithwaite, Hermann Brenner, Andre R Brunoni, Katrin Burkart, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Zahid A Butt, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos, Josip Car, Giulia Carreras, Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia, Maria Sofia Sofia Cattaruzza, Jung-Chen Chang, Pankaj Chaturvedi, Simiao Chen, Onyema Greg Chido-Amajuoyi, Dinh-Toi Chu, Sheng-Chia Chung, Liliana G Ciobanu, Vera Marisa Costa, Rosa A S Couto, Baye Dagnew, Xiaochen Dai, Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno, Giovanni Damiani, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad, Jiregna Darega Gela, Meseret Derbew Molla, Abebaw Alemayehu Desta, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Meghnath Dhimal, Arielle Wilder Eagan, Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan, Kristina Edvardsson, Andem Effiong, Maha El Tantawi, Iffat Elbarazi, Saman Esmaeilnejad, Ibtihal Fadhil, Emerito Jose A Faraon, Medhat Farwati, Farshad Farzadfar, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Valery L Feigin, Rachel Feldman, Irina Filip, Filippos Filippidis, Florian Fischer, Luisa Sorio Flor, Nataliya A Foigt, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Masoud Foroutan, Mohamed M Gad, Silvano Gallus, Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam, Birhan Gebresillassie Gebregiorgis, Lemma Getacher, Abera Getachew Obsa, Mansour Ghafourifard, Reza Ghanei Gheshlagh, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Nermin Ghith, Gabriela Fernanda Gil, Paramjit Singh Gill, Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi, Salime Goharinezhad, Mahaveer Golechha, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Giuseppe Gorini, Michal Grivna, Avirup Guha, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Yuming Guo, Rajat Das Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Tarun Gupta, Vin Gupta, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Mohammad Rifat Haider, Randah R Hamadeh, Graeme J Hankey, Arief Hargono, Simon I Hay, Golnaz Heidari, Claudiu Herteliu, Kamal Hezam, Thomas R Hird, Ramesh Holla, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Mowafa Househ, Thomas Hsiao, Junjie Huang, Charles Ugochukwu Ibeneme, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Irena M Ilic, Milena D Ilic, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Jessica Y Islam, Rakibul M Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Farhad Islami, Hiroyasu Iso, Ramaiah Itumalla, Jalil Jaafari, Vardhmaan Jain, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Sung-In Jang, Shubha Jayaram, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Ravi Prakash Jha, Jost B Jonas, Mikk Jürisson, Ali Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Leila R Kalankesh, Tanuj Kanchan, Himal Kandel, Neeti Kapoor, André Karch, Salah Eddin Karimi, Kindie Mitiku Kebede, Bayew Kelkay, Ryan David Kennedy, Yousef Saleh Khader, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Maryam Khayamzadeh, Gyu Ri Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Mika Kivimäki, Soewarta Kosen, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Nuworza Kugbey, G Anil Kumar, Nithin Kumar, Om P Kurmi, Dian Kusuma, Ben Lacey, Iván Landires, Savita Lasrado, Paolo Lauriola, Doo Woong Lee, Yo Han Lee, Janni Leung, Shanshan Li, Hualiang Lin, Wei Liu, Alessandra Lugo, Shilpashree Madhava Kunjathur, Azeem Majeed, Afshin Maleki, Reza Malekzadeh, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Abdullah A Mamun, Narayana Manjunatha, Borhan Mansouri, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Santi Martini, Manu Raj Mathur, Prashant Mathur, Mohsen Mazidi, Martin McKee, Carlo Eduardo Medina-Solís, Suresh Mehata, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G Menezes, Bartosz Miazgowski, Irmina Maria Michalek, Ted R Miller, Gk Mini, Andreea Mirica, Erkin M Mirrakhimov, Hamed Mirzaei, Sanjeev Misra, Yousef Mohammad, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H Mokdad, Mariam Molokhia, Lorenzo Monasta, Mohammad Ali Moni, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Shane Douglas Morrison, Tilahun Belete Mossie, Sumaira Mubarik, Erin C Mullany, Christopher J L Murray, Shankar Prasad Nagaraju, Mohsen Naghavi, Nitish Naik, Mahdi Nalini, Vinay Nangia, Atta Abbas Naqvi, Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy, Muhammad Naveed, Javad Nazari, Sabina O Nduaguba, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Sandhya Neupane Kandel, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Yeshambel T Nigatu, Molly R Nixon, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Christoph Nowak, Virginia Nuñez-Samudio, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade, In-Hwan Oh, Andrew T Olagunju, Mayowa O O. Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet Public Health. 2021; 6 (7):e482-e499.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Parkes J Kendrick; Marissa B Reitsma; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Amir Abdoli; Mohammad Abdollahi; Aidin Abedi; E S Abhilash; Victor Aboyans; Oladimeji M Adebayo; Shailesh M Advani; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sohail Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Budi Aji; Yonas Akalu; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M Alanzi; Khalid F Alhabib; Tilahun Ali; Sheikh Mohammad Alif; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Mahmoud A Alomari; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Saeed Amini; Hubert Amu; Robert Ancuceanu; Jason A Anderson; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Benny Antony; Davood Anvari; Jalal Arabloo; Nicholas D Arian; Monika Arora; Kurnia Dwi Artanti; Wondwossen Niguse Asmare; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Marcel Ausloos; Asma Tahir Awan; Getinet Ayano; Getie Lake Aynalem; Samad Azari; Darshan B B; Ashish D Badiye; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Srikanta K Banerjee; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Sanjay Basu; Mohsen Bayati; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma; Derrick A Bennett; Isabela M Bensenor; Habib Benzian; Catherine P Benziger; Adam E Berman; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Neeraj Bhala; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Dejana Braithwaite; Hermann Brenner; Andre R Brunoni; Katrin Burkart; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Josip Car; Giulia Carreras; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Maria Sofia Sofia Cattaruzza; Jung-Chen Chang; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Simiao Chen; Onyema Greg Chido-Amajuoyi; Dinh-Toi Chu; Sheng-Chia Chung; Liliana G Ciobanu; Vera Marisa Costa; Rosa A S Couto; Baye Dagnew; Xiaochen Dai; Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno; Giovanni Damiani; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Jiregna Darega Gela; Meseret Derbew Molla; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Arielle Wilder Eagan; Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan; Kristina Edvardsson; Andem Effiong; Maha El Tantawi; Iffat Elbarazi; Saman Esmaeilnejad; Ibtihal Fadhil; Emerito Jose A Faraon; Medhat Farwati; Farshad Farzadfar; Mehdi Fazlzadeh; Valery L Feigin; Rachel Feldman; Irina Filip; Filippos Filippidis; Florian Fischer; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya A Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Mohamed M Gad; Silvano Gallus; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Birhan Gebresillassie Gebregiorgis; Lemma Getacher; Abera Getachew Obsa; Mansour Ghafourifard; Reza Ghanei Gheshlagh; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Gabriela Fernanda Gil; Paramjit Singh Gill; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Salime Goharinezhad; Mahaveer Golechha; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Giuseppe Gorini; Michal Grivna; Avirup Guha; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Yuming Guo; Rajat Das Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tarun Gupta; Vin Gupta; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Randah R Hamadeh; Graeme J Hankey; Arief Hargono; Simon I Hay; Golnaz Heidari; Claudiu Herteliu; Kamal Hezam; Thomas R Hird; Ramesh Holla; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Thomas Hsiao; Junjie Huang; Charles Ugochukwu Ibeneme; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Jessica Y Islam; Rakibul M Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Hiroyasu Iso; Ramaiah Itumalla; Jalil Jaafari; Vardhmaan Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Sung-In Jang; Shubha Jayaram; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B Jonas; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Leila R Kalankesh; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Neeti Kapoor; André Karch; Salah Eddin Karimi; Kindie Mitiku Kebede; Bayew Kelkay; Ryan David Kennedy; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Gyu Ri Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Mika Kivimäki; Soewarta Kosen; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Nuworza Kugbey; G Anil Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Om P Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Ben Lacey; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Paolo Lauriola; Doo Woong Lee; Yo Han Lee; Janni Leung; Shanshan Li; Hualiang Lin; Wei Liu; Alessandra Lugo; Shilpashree Madhava Kunjathur; Azeem Majeed; Afshin Maleki; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A Mamun; Narayana Manjunatha; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Santi Martini; Manu Raj Mathur; Prashant Mathur; Mohsen Mazidi; Martin McKee; Carlo Eduardo Medina-Solís; Suresh Mehata; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G Menezes; Bartosz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Ted R Miller; Gk Mini; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Hamed Mirzaei; Sanjeev Misra; Yousef Mohammad; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Shane Douglas Morrison; Tilahun Belete Mossie; Sumaira Mubarik; Erin C Mullany; Christopher J L Murray; Shankar Prasad Nagaraju; Mohsen Naghavi; Nitish Naik; Mahdi Nalini; Vinay Nangia; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Muhammad Naveed; Javad Nazari; Sabina O Nduaguba; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Yeshambel T Nigatu; Molly R Nixon; Chukwudi A Nnaji; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Christoph Nowak; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade; In-Hwan Oh; Andrew T Olagunju; Mayowa O O. 2021. "Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019." The Lancet Public Health 6, no. 7: e482-e499.

Articles
Published: 27 May 2021 in The Lancet
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Summary Background Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally. Methods We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available. Findings Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13–1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11–7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5–28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4–39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98–1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16–8·20) deaths and 200 million (185–214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3–21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers. Interpretation In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens. Funding Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

ACS Style

Marissa B Reitsma; Parkes J Kendrick; Emad Ababneh; Cristiana Abbafati; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Amir Abdoli; Aidin Abedi; E S Abhilash; Derrick Bary Abila; Victor Aboyans; Niveen Me Abu-Rmeileh; Oladimeji M Adebayo; Shailesh M Advani; Mohammad Aghaali; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sohail Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Budi Aji; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Ziyad Al-Aly; Turki M Alanzi; Khalid F Alhabib; Liaqat Ali; Sheikh Mohammad Alif; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Saeed Amini; Hubert Amu; Gianna Gayle Herrera Amul; Robert Ancuceanu; Jason A Anderson; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Carl Abelardo T Antonio; Benny Antony; Davood Anvari; Jalal Arabloo; Nicholas D Arian; Monika Arora; Malke Asaad; Marcel Ausloos; Asma Tahir Awan; Getinet Ayano; Getie Lake Aynalem; Samad Azari; Darshan B B; Ashish D Badiye; Atif Amin Baig; Mohammad Hossein Bakhshaei; Maciej Banach; Palash Chandra Banik; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Sanjay Basu; Mohsen Bayati; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Masoud Behzadifar; Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma; Derrick A Bennett; Isabela M Bensenor; Kathleen S Sachiko Berfield; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Bagas Suryo Bintoro; Antonio Biondi; Setognal Birara; Dejana Braithwaite; Hermann Brenner; Andre R Brunoni; Katrin Burkart; Zahid A Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Luis Alberto Cámera; Josip Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J Carrero; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Maria Sofia Sofia Cattaruzza; Jung-Chen Chang; Simiao Chen; Dinh-Toi Chu; Sheng-Chia Chung; Massimo Cirillo; Vera Marisa Costa; Rosa A S Couto; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno; Giovanni Damiani; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Jiregna Darega Gela; Kairat Davletov; Meseret Derbew Molla; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Hoa Thi Do; Abdel Douiri; Bruce B Duncan; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Arielle Wilder Eagan; Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan; Kristina Edvardsson; Iffat Elbarazi; Maha El Tantawi; Saman Esmaeilnejad; Ibtihal Fadhil; Emerito Jose A Faraon; Carla Sofia E Sá Farinha; Medhat Farwati; Farshad Farzadfar; Mehdi Fazlzadeh; Valery L Feigin; Rachel Feldman; Carlota Fernandez Prendes; Pietro Ferrara; Irina Filip; Filippos Filippidis; Florian Fischer; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya A Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Mohamed M Gad; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Silvano Gallus; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Mansour Ghafourifard; Alireza Ghajar; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Simona Giampaoli; Paramjit Singh Gill; Franklin N Glozah; Elena V Gnedovskaya; Mahaveer Golechha; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Giuseppe Gorini; Houman Goudarzi; Alessandra C Goulart; Felix Greaves; Avirup Guha; Yuming Guo; Bhawna Gupta; Rajat Das Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tarun Gupta; Vin Gupta; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Randah R Hamadeh; Graeme J Hankey; Arief Hargono; Risky Kusuma Hartono; Hadi Hassankhani; Simon I Hay; Golnaz Heidari; Claudiu Herteliu; Kamal Hezam; Thomas R Hird; Michael K Hole; Ramesh Holla; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Thomas Hsiao; Junjie Huang; Vincent C Iannucci; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Bulat Idrisov; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Jessica Y Islam; Rakibul M Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Hiroyasu Iso; Ramaiah Itumalla; Masao Iwagami; Jalil Jaafari; Vardhmaan Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Sung-In Jang; Hosna Janjani; Shubha Jayaram; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B Jonas; Tamas Joo; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Leila R Kalankesh; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Neeti Kapoor; Salah Eddin Karimi; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Hafte Kahsay Kebede; Bayew Kelkay; Ryan David Kennedy; Abdullah T Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Gyu Ri Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Mika Kivimäki; Soewarta Kosen; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Nuworza Kugbey; G Anil Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Om P Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Ben Lacey; Jennifer O Lam; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Paolo Lauriola; Doo Woong Lee; Yo Han Lee; Janni Leung; Shanshan Li; Hualiang Lin; Shai Linn; Wei Liu; Alan D Lopez; Platon D Lopukhov; Stefan Lorkowski; Alessandra Lugo; Azeem Majeed; Afshin Maleki; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A Mamun; Narayana Manjunatha; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Jose Martinez-Raga; Santi Martini; Manu Raj Mathur; Carlo Eduardo Medina-Solís; Suresh Mehata; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G Menezes; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J Meretoja; Bartosz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Ted R Miller; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Hamed Mirzaei; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Sanjeev Misra; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Yousef Mohammad; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H Mokdad; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Shane Douglas Morrison; Tilahun Belete Mossie; Sumaira Mubarik; Erin C Mullany; Christopher J L Murray; Mohsen Naghavi; Behshad Naghshtabrizi; Sanjeev Nair; Mahdi Nalini; Vinay Nangia; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Muhammad Naveed; Smitha Nayak; Vinod C Nayak; Javad Nazari; Sabina O Nduaguba; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Son Hoang Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Molly R Nixon; Chukwudi A Nnaji; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Christoph Nowak; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade; In-Hwan Oh; Andrew T Olagunju; Eyal Oren; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S Otstavnov; Mayowa O Owolabi; Mahesh P A; Smita Pakhale; Keyvan Pakshir; Raffaele Palladino; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Ashok Pandey; Utsav Parekh; Eun-Cheol Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; George C Patton; Shrikant Pawar; Richard G Pestell; Marina Pinheiro; Michael A Piradov; Saeed Pirouzpanah; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Roman V Polibin; Akila Prashant; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Amir Radfar; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Azizur Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Nazanin Rajai; Pradhum Ram; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Priya Rathi; Lal Rawal; Andre M N Renzaho; Luz Myriam Reynales-Shigematsu; Aziz Rezapour; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Mavra A Riaz; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ambuj Roy; Bedanta Roy; Simona Sacco; Basema Saddik; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Sana Salehi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M Samy; Itamar S Santos; Milena M Santric-Milicevic; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Mete Saylan; Michael P Schaub; Maria Inês Schmidt; Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Falk Schwendicke; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Nachimuthu Senthil Kumar; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Allen Seylani; Omid Shafaat; Syed Mahboob Shah; Masood Ali Shaikh; Ali S Shalash; Mohammed Shannawaz; Kiomars Sharafi; Aziz Sheikh; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; Kawkab Shishani; K M Shivakumar; Siddharudha Shivalli; Roman Shrestha; Soraya Siabani; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; João Pedro Silva; Ambrish Singh; Jasvinder A Singh; Virendra Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Freddy Sitas; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Matiwos Soboka; Joan B Soriano; Ali Soroush; Sergey Soshnikov; Ireneous N Soyiri; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy; Dan J Stein; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Stefan Stortecky; Kurt Straif; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Gerhard Sulo; Johan Sundström; Takahiro Tabuchi; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Biruk Wogayehu Taddele; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Minale Tareke; Ismail Tareque; Ingan Ukur Tarigan; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Rekha Thapar; Ales Tichopad; Musliu Adetola Tolani; Fotis Topouzis; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Nikolaos Tsilimparis; Hayley D Tymeson; Anayat Ullah; Saif Ullah; Brigid Unim; Rachel L Updike; Marco Vacante; Pascual R Valdez; Constantine Vardavas; Patricia Varona Pérez; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Madhur Verma; Marina V Vetrova; Bay Vo; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Yanzhong Wang; Kevin Welding; Andrea Werdecker; Joanna L Whisnant; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Srikanth Yandrapalli; Hiroshi Yatsuya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Yigizie Yeshaw; Mohammed Zewdu Yimmer; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Telma Zahirian Moghadam; Muhammed Shahriar Zaman; Maryam Zamanian; Hamed Zandian; Heather J Zar; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Luis Zavala-Arciniega; Jianrong Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Yves Miel H Zuniga; Emmanuela Gakidou. Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet 2021, 397, 2337 -2360.

AMA Style

Marissa B Reitsma, Parkes J Kendrick, Emad Ababneh, Cristiana Abbafati, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Amir Abdoli, Aidin Abedi, E S Abhilash, Derrick Bary Abila, Victor Aboyans, Niveen Me Abu-Rmeileh, Oladimeji M Adebayo, Shailesh M Advani, Mohammad Aghaali, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Sohail Ahmad, Keivan Ahmadi, Haroon Ahmed, Budi Aji, Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna, Ziyad Al-Aly, Turki M Alanzi, Khalid F Alhabib, Liaqat Ali, Sheikh Mohammad Alif, Vahid Alipour, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, François Alla, Peter Allebeck, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Tarek Tawfik Amin, Saeed Amini, Hubert Amu, Gianna Gayle Herrera Amul, Robert Ancuceanu, Jason A Anderson, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam, Carl Abelardo T Antonio, Benny Antony, Davood Anvari, Jalal Arabloo, Nicholas D Arian, Monika Arora, Malke Asaad, Marcel Ausloos, Asma Tahir Awan, Getinet Ayano, Getie Lake Aynalem, Samad Azari, Darshan B B, Ashish D Badiye, Atif Amin Baig, Mohammad Hossein Bakhshaei, Maciej Banach, Palash Chandra Banik, Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Hiba Jawdat Barqawi, Sanjay Basu, Mohsen Bayati, Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi, Masoud Behzadifar, Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma, Derrick A Bennett, Isabela M Bensenor, Kathleen S Sachiko Berfield, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Sadia Bibi, Ali Bijani, Bagas Suryo Bintoro, Antonio Biondi, Setognal Birara, Dejana Braithwaite, Hermann Brenner, Andre R Brunoni, Katrin Burkart, Zahid A Butt, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos, Luis Alberto Cámera, Josip Car, Rosario Cárdenas, Giulia Carreras, Juan J Carrero, Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia, Maria Sofia Sofia Cattaruzza, Jung-Chen Chang, Simiao Chen, Dinh-Toi Chu, Sheng-Chia Chung, Massimo Cirillo, Vera Marisa Costa, Rosa A S Couto, Omid Dadras, Xiaochen Dai, Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno, Giovanni Damiani, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad, Jiregna Darega Gela, Kairat Davletov, Meseret Derbew Molla, Getenet Ayalew Dessie, Abebaw Alemayehu Desta, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Mostafa Dianatinasab, Daniel Diaz, Hoa Thi Do, Abdel Douiri, Bruce B Duncan, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Arielle Wilder Eagan, Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan, Kristina Edvardsson, Iffat Elbarazi, Maha El Tantawi, Saman Esmaeilnejad, Ibtihal Fadhil, Emerito Jose A Faraon, Carla Sofia E Sá Farinha, Medhat Farwati, Farshad Farzadfar, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Valery L Feigin, Rachel Feldman, Carlota Fernandez Prendes, Pietro Ferrara, Irina Filip, Filippos Filippidis, Florian Fischer, Luisa Sorio Flor, Nataliya A Foigt, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Masoud Foroutan, Mohamed M Gad, Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane, Silvano Gallus, Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam, Mansour Ghafourifard, Alireza Ghajar, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Simona Giampaoli, Paramjit Singh Gill, Franklin N Glozah, Elena V Gnedovskaya, Mahaveer Golechha, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Giuseppe Gorini, Houman Goudarzi, Alessandra C Goulart, Felix Greaves, Avirup Guha, Yuming Guo, Bhawna Gupta, Rajat Das Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Tarun Gupta, Vin Gupta, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Mohammad Rifat Haider, Randah R Hamadeh, Graeme J Hankey, Arief Hargono, Risky Kusuma Hartono, Hadi Hassankhani, Simon I Hay, Golnaz Heidari, Claudiu Herteliu, Kamal Hezam, Thomas R Hird, Michael K Hole, Ramesh Holla, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Sorin Hostiuc, Mowafa Househ, Thomas Hsiao, Junjie Huang, Vincent C Iannucci, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Bulat Idrisov, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena M Ilic, Milena D Ilic, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Jessica Y Islam, Rakibul M Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Farhad Islami, Hiroyasu Iso, Ramaiah Itumalla, Masao Iwagami, Jalil Jaafari, Vardhmaan Jain, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Sung-In Jang, Hosna Janjani, Shubha Jayaram, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Ravi Prakash Jha, Jost B Jonas, Tamas Joo, Mikk Jürisson, Ali Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Leila R Kalankesh, Tanuj Kanchan, Himal Kandel, Neeti Kapoor, Salah Eddin Karimi, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Hafte Kahsay Kebede, Bayew Kelkay, Ryan David Kennedy, Abdullah T Khoja, Jagdish Khubchandani, Gyu Ri Kim, Young-Eun Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Mika Kivimäki, Soewarta Kosen, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Nuworza Kugbey, G Anil Kumar, Nithin Kumar, Om P Kurmi, Dian Kusuma, Ben Lacey, Jennifer O Lam, Iván Landires, Savita Lasrado, Paolo Lauriola, Doo Woong Lee, Yo Han Lee, Janni Leung, Shanshan Li, Hualiang Lin, Shai Linn, Wei Liu, Alan D Lopez, Platon D Lopukhov, Stefan Lorkowski, Alessandra Lugo, Azeem Majeed, Afshin Maleki, Reza Malekzadeh, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Abdullah A Mamun, Narayana Manjunatha, Borhan Mansouri, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Jose Martinez-Raga, Santi Martini, Manu Raj Mathur, Carlo Eduardo Medina-Solís, Suresh Mehata, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G Menezes, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Bartosz Miazgowski, Irmina Maria Michalek, Ted R Miller, Erkin M Mirrakhimov, Hamed Mirzaei, Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh, Sanjeev Misra, Masoud Moghadaszadeh, Yousef Mohammad, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H Mokdad, Lorenzo Monasta, Mohammad Ali Moni, Ghobad Moradi, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Shane Douglas Morrison, Tilahun Belete Mossie, Sumaira Mubarik, Erin C Mullany, Christopher J L Murray, Mohsen Naghavi, Behshad Naghshtabrizi, Sanjeev Nair, Mahdi Nalini, Vinay Nangia, Atta Abbas Naqvi, Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy, Muhammad Naveed, Smitha Nayak, Vinod C Nayak, Javad Nazari, Sabina O Nduaguba, Sandhya Neupane Kandel, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Son Hoang Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Molly R Nixon, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Bo Norrving, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Christoph Nowak, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade, In-Hwan Oh, Andrew T Olagunju, Eyal Oren, Nikita Otstavnov, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Mayowa O Owolabi, Mahesh P A, Smita Pakhale, Keyvan Pakshir, Raffaele Palladino, Adrian Pana, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Ashok Pandey, Utsav Parekh, Eun-Cheol Park, Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan, George C Patton, Shrikant Pawar, Richard G Pestell, Marina Pinheiro, Michael A Piradov, Saeed Pirouzpanah, Khem Narayan Pokhrel, Roman V Polibin, Akila Prashant, Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi, Amir Radfar, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Azizur Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Nazanin Rajai, Pradhum Ram, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Priya Rathi, Lal Rawal, Andre M N Renzaho, Luz Myriam Reynales-Shigematsu, Aziz Rezapour, Seyed Mohammad Riahi, Mavra A Riaz, Leonardo Roever, Luca Ronfani, Gholamreza Roshandel, Ambuj Roy, Bedanta Roy, Simona Sacco, Basema Saddik, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Sana Salehi, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Mehrnoosh Samaei, Abdallah M Samy, Itamar S Santos, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Brijesh Sathian, Monika Sawhney, Mete Saylan, Michael P Schaub, Maria Inês Schmidt, Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider, Aletta Elisabeth Schutte, Falk Schwendicke, Abdul-Aziz Seidu, Nachimuthu Senthil Kumar, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Allen Seylani, Omid Shafaat, Syed Mahboob Shah, Masood Ali Shaikh, Ali S Shalash, Mohammed Shannawaz, Kiomars Sharafi, Aziz Sheikh, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Mika Shigematsu, Rahman Shiri, Kawkab Shishani, K M Shivakumar, Siddharudha Shivalli, Roman Shrestha, Soraya Siabani, Negussie Boti Sidemo, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir, Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, João Pedro Silva, Ambrish Singh, Jasvinder A Singh, Virendra Singh, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, Freddy Sitas, Valentin Yurievich Skryabin, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Matiwos Soboka, Joan B Soriano, Ali Soroush, Sergey Soshnikov, Ireneous N Soyiri, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Dan J Stein, Paschalis Steiropoulos, Stefan Stortecky, Kurt Straif, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Gerhard Sulo, Johan Sundström, Takahiro Tabuchi, Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla, Biruk Wogayehu Taddele, Eyayou Girma Tadesse, Animut Tagele Tamiru, Minale Tareke, Ismail Tareque, Ingan Ukur Tarigan, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Rekha Thapar, Ales Tichopad, Musliu Adetola Tolani, Fotis Topouzis, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Bach Xuan Tran, Jaya Prasad Tripathy, Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye, Nikolaos Tsilimparis, Hayley D Tymeson, Anayat Ullah, Saif Ullah, Brigid Unim, Rachel L Updike, Marco Vacante, Pascual R Valdez, Constantine Vardavas, Patricia Varona Pérez, Tommi Juhani Vasankari, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Madhur Verma, Marina V Vetrova, Bay Vo, Giang Thu Vu, Yasir Waheed, Yanzhong Wang, Kevin Welding, Andrea Werdecker, Joanna L Whisnant, Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe, Kazumasa Yamagishi, Srikanth Yandrapalli, Hiroshi Yatsuya, Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Yigizie Yeshaw, Mohammed Zewdu Yimmer, Naohiro Yonemoto, Chuanhua Yu, Ismaeel Yunusa, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Telma Zahirian Moghadam, Muhammed Shahriar Zaman, Maryam Zamanian, Hamed Zandian, Heather J Zar, Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin, Anasthasia Zastrozhina, Luis Zavala-Arciniega, Jianrong Zhang, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Chenwen Zhong, Yves Miel H Zuniga, Emmanuela Gakidou. Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet. 2021; 397 (10292):2337-2360.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marissa B Reitsma; Parkes J Kendrick; Emad Ababneh; Cristiana Abbafati; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Amir Abdoli; Aidin Abedi; E S Abhilash; Derrick Bary Abila; Victor Aboyans; Niveen Me Abu-Rmeileh; Oladimeji M Adebayo; Shailesh M Advani; Mohammad Aghaali; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sohail Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Budi Aji; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Ziyad Al-Aly; Turki M Alanzi; Khalid F Alhabib; Liaqat Ali; Sheikh Mohammad Alif; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Saeed Amini; Hubert Amu; Gianna Gayle Herrera Amul; Robert Ancuceanu; Jason A Anderson; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Carl Abelardo T Antonio; Benny Antony; Davood Anvari; Jalal Arabloo; Nicholas D Arian; Monika Arora; Malke Asaad; Marcel Ausloos; Asma Tahir Awan; Getinet Ayano; Getie Lake Aynalem; Samad Azari; Darshan B B; Ashish D Badiye; Atif Amin Baig; Mohammad Hossein Bakhshaei; Maciej Banach; Palash Chandra Banik; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Sanjay Basu; Mohsen Bayati; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Masoud Behzadifar; Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma; Derrick A Bennett; Isabela M Bensenor; Kathleen S Sachiko Berfield; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Bagas Suryo Bintoro; Antonio Biondi; Setognal Birara; Dejana Braithwaite; Hermann Brenner; Andre R Brunoni; Katrin Burkart; Zahid A Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Luis Alberto Cámera; Josip Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J Carrero; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Maria Sofia Sofia Cattaruzza; Jung-Chen Chang; Simiao Chen; Dinh-Toi Chu; Sheng-Chia Chung; Massimo Cirillo; Vera Marisa Costa; Rosa A S Couto; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno; Giovanni Damiani; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Jiregna Darega Gela; Kairat Davletov; Meseret Derbew Molla; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Hoa Thi Do; Abdel Douiri; Bruce B Duncan; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Arielle Wilder Eagan; Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan; Kristina Edvardsson; Iffat Elbarazi; Maha El Tantawi; Saman Esmaeilnejad; Ibtihal Fadhil; Emerito Jose A Faraon; Carla Sofia E Sá Farinha; Medhat Farwati; Farshad Farzadfar; Mehdi Fazlzadeh; Valery L Feigin; Rachel Feldman; Carlota Fernandez Prendes; Pietro Ferrara; Irina Filip; Filippos Filippidis; Florian Fischer; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya A Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Mohamed M Gad; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Silvano Gallus; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Mansour Ghafourifard; Alireza Ghajar; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Simona Giampaoli; Paramjit Singh Gill; Franklin N Glozah; Elena V Gnedovskaya; Mahaveer Golechha; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Giuseppe Gorini; Houman Goudarzi; Alessandra C Goulart; Felix Greaves; Avirup Guha; Yuming Guo; Bhawna Gupta; Rajat Das Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tarun Gupta; Vin Gupta; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Randah R Hamadeh; Graeme J Hankey; Arief Hargono; Risky Kusuma Hartono; Hadi Hassankhani; Simon I Hay; Golnaz Heidari; Claudiu Herteliu; Kamal Hezam; Thomas R Hird; Michael K Hole; Ramesh Holla; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Thomas Hsiao; Junjie Huang; Vincent C Iannucci; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Bulat Idrisov; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Jessica Y Islam; Rakibul M Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Hiroyasu Iso; Ramaiah Itumalla; Masao Iwagami; Jalil Jaafari; Vardhmaan Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Sung-In Jang; Hosna Janjani; Shubha Jayaram; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B Jonas; Tamas Joo; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Leila R Kalankesh; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Neeti Kapoor; Salah Eddin Karimi; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Hafte Kahsay Kebede; Bayew Kelkay; Ryan David Kennedy; Abdullah T Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Gyu Ri Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Mika Kivimäki; Soewarta Kosen; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Nuworza Kugbey; G Anil Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Om P Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Ben Lacey; Jennifer O Lam; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Paolo Lauriola; Doo Woong Lee; Yo Han Lee; Janni Leung; Shanshan Li; Hualiang Lin; Shai Linn; Wei Liu; Alan D Lopez; Platon D Lopukhov; Stefan Lorkowski; Alessandra Lugo; Azeem Majeed; Afshin Maleki; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A Mamun; Narayana Manjunatha; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Jose Martinez-Raga; Santi Martini; Manu Raj Mathur; Carlo Eduardo Medina-Solís; Suresh Mehata; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G Menezes; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J Meretoja; Bartosz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Ted R Miller; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Hamed Mirzaei; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Sanjeev Misra; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Yousef Mohammad; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H Mokdad; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Shane Douglas Morrison; Tilahun Belete Mossie; Sumaira Mubarik; Erin C Mullany; Christopher J L Murray; Mohsen Naghavi; Behshad Naghshtabrizi; Sanjeev Nair; Mahdi Nalini; Vinay Nangia; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Muhammad Naveed; Smitha Nayak; Vinod C Nayak; Javad Nazari; Sabina O Nduaguba; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Son Hoang Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Molly R Nixon; Chukwudi A Nnaji; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Christoph Nowak; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade; In-Hwan Oh; Andrew T Olagunju; Eyal Oren; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S Otstavnov; Mayowa O Owolabi; Mahesh P A; Smita Pakhale; Keyvan Pakshir; Raffaele Palladino; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Ashok Pandey; Utsav Parekh; Eun-Cheol Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; George C Patton; Shrikant Pawar; Richard G Pestell; Marina Pinheiro; Michael A Piradov; Saeed Pirouzpanah; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Roman V Polibin; Akila Prashant; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Amir Radfar; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Azizur Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Nazanin Rajai; Pradhum Ram; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Priya Rathi; Lal Rawal; Andre M N Renzaho; Luz Myriam Reynales-Shigematsu; Aziz Rezapour; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Mavra A Riaz; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ambuj Roy; Bedanta Roy; Simona Sacco; Basema Saddik; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Sana Salehi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M Samy; Itamar S Santos; Milena M Santric-Milicevic; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Mete Saylan; Michael P Schaub; Maria Inês Schmidt; Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Falk Schwendicke; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Nachimuthu Senthil Kumar; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Allen Seylani; Omid Shafaat; Syed Mahboob Shah; Masood Ali Shaikh; Ali S Shalash; Mohammed Shannawaz; Kiomars Sharafi; Aziz Sheikh; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; Kawkab Shishani; K M Shivakumar; Siddharudha Shivalli; Roman Shrestha; Soraya Siabani; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; João Pedro Silva; Ambrish Singh; Jasvinder A Singh; Virendra Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Freddy Sitas; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Matiwos Soboka; Joan B Soriano; Ali Soroush; Sergey Soshnikov; Ireneous N Soyiri; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy; Dan J Stein; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Stefan Stortecky; Kurt Straif; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Gerhard Sulo; Johan Sundström; Takahiro Tabuchi; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Biruk Wogayehu Taddele; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Minale Tareke; Ismail Tareque; Ingan Ukur Tarigan; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Rekha Thapar; Ales Tichopad; Musliu Adetola Tolani; Fotis Topouzis; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Nikolaos Tsilimparis; Hayley D Tymeson; Anayat Ullah; Saif Ullah; Brigid Unim; Rachel L Updike; Marco Vacante; Pascual R Valdez; Constantine Vardavas; Patricia Varona Pérez; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Madhur Verma; Marina V Vetrova; Bay Vo; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Yanzhong Wang; Kevin Welding; Andrea Werdecker; Joanna L Whisnant; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Srikanth Yandrapalli; Hiroshi Yatsuya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Yigizie Yeshaw; Mohammed Zewdu Yimmer; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Telma Zahirian Moghadam; Muhammed Shahriar Zaman; Maryam Zamanian; Hamed Zandian; Heather J Zar; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Luis Zavala-Arciniega; Jianrong Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Yves Miel H Zuniga; Emmanuela Gakidou. 2021. "Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019." The Lancet 397, no. 10292: 2337-2360.

Book chapter
Published: 12 May 2021 in Handbook of Global Health
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Population aging became a globally widespread phenomenon during the last decades. Its core underlying causes are extended life expectancy at birth, improved early childhood survival, education, absorption of women into the labor markets, and consequences of sexual revolution leading to decreased female fertility. The scale of this demographic transition is unique in the entire history of mankind including a profound societal change that is now taking its toll on most countries, rich and poor alike. Shrinking of capable labor force coinciding with the expanding share of elderly and retired citizens continues to happen as a long-term trend. Thus, long-term financial sustainability of public social and health insurance funds becomes more and more questionable. Health expenditure growth continues to accelerate worldwide, with increases mostly on demand side. To a large extent, it is attributable to the needs of elderly citizens for home-based medical care. Last year of life phenomenon confirmed that almost entire life span medical consumption of an individual citizen is equal to the last 12 months of costs of treatment of expensive autoimmune, malignant, or vascular diseases. Most national and transnational authorities seem to be forced to consider reform of the current healthcare financing pattern inherited from the demographic growth era. Such exit strategy is necessary to make the financial burden of population aging bearable for modern-day universal health coverage and retirement policies. Ultimately, without bottom-up rethinking of universal health coverage and social support legacies, burden of global population aging might remain virtually unbearable for the most of modern societies.

ACS Style

Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Ronny Westerman; Tarang Sharma; Demetris Lamnisos. Aging and Global Health. Handbook of Global Health 2021, 73 -102.

AMA Style

Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Ronny Westerman, Tarang Sharma, Demetris Lamnisos. Aging and Global Health. Handbook of Global Health. 2021; ():73-102.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Ronny Westerman; Tarang Sharma; Demetris Lamnisos. 2021. "Aging and Global Health." Handbook of Global Health , no. : 73-102.

Preprint
Published: 06 May 2021
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The use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is a great contribution to medical studies since the application of forecasting concepts allows the analysis of future diseases propagations. In this context, this paper presents a study of the new coronavirus SARS-COV-2 with a focus on verifying the virus propagation associated with mitigation procedures and massive vaccination campaigns. There were proposed two methodologies to predict 28 days ahead the number of new cases, deaths, and ICU patients of five European countries: Portugal, France, Italy, United Kingdom, and Germany, and a case study of the results of massive immunization in Israel. The data input of cases, deaths, and daily ICU patients was normalized to reduce discrepant numbers due to the countries size, and the cumulative vaccination values by the percentage of population immunized, at least with one dose of vaccine. As a comparative criterion, the calculation of the mean absolute error (MAE) of all predictions presents the best methodology and targets other possibilities of use for the proposed method. The best architecture achieved a general MAE for the 1 to 28 days ahead forecast lower than 30 cases, 0,6 deaths and 2,5 ICU patients by million people.

ACS Style

Kathleen Carvalho; João Paulo Vicente; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; João Paulo Teixeira. Forecasted Incidence, Intensive Care Unit Admissions and Projected Mortality attributable to Covid-19 in Portugal, UK, Germany, Italy and France – 4 weeks Ahead. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Kathleen Carvalho, João Paulo Vicente, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, João Paulo Teixeira. Forecasted Incidence, Intensive Care Unit Admissions and Projected Mortality attributable to Covid-19 in Portugal, UK, Germany, Italy and France – 4 weeks Ahead. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kathleen Carvalho; João Paulo Vicente; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; João Paulo Teixeira. 2021. "Forecasted Incidence, Intensive Care Unit Admissions and Projected Mortality attributable to Covid-19 in Portugal, UK, Germany, Italy and France – 4 weeks Ahead." , no. : 1.

Review
Published: 06 April 2021 in Sustainability
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Stroke is one of the leading causes of adult disability and the second leading cause of death worldwide. The immune system actively participates in the pathobiological process of acute ischemic stroke (AIS), during the index event and the repair process. Research on neurovascular inflammation has created a renewed interest in the use of easily available biomarkers reflective of innate and adaptive immunological changes with potential diagnostic, prognostic, and therapeutic implications particularly in AIS. The current scoping review aimed to assess the significance the neutrophil to lymphocyte (NLR) in AIS and its related complications and explore their association with post-stroke recovery trajectory. The Arksey and O’Malley methodological framework was employed to review the published papers on the neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and AIS in late November 2020. Only studies published in English from 2000–2020 were included in this scoping review. Fifty-three published papers were reviewed. This review’s key finding is that a canonical inflammatory response occurs in the hyperacute, acute, subacute, and chronic stages of stroke. An excessive circulating innate immune cells (neutrophils) and reduced circulating adaptive immune cells (lymphocytes) are associated with poorer outcomes during the acute interventions as well as the recovery trajectory. This scoping review’s findings highlights the utility of a systems biology-based approach in stroke care.

ACS Style

Tissa Wijeratne; Carmela Sales; Rohit Menon; Leila Karimi; Mihajlo Jakovljevic. Highlighting the Role of Universally Available and Innate Immune Cell Counts in Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Scoping Review. Sustainability 2021, 13, 4069 .

AMA Style

Tissa Wijeratne, Carmela Sales, Rohit Menon, Leila Karimi, Mihajlo Jakovljevic. Highlighting the Role of Universally Available and Innate Immune Cell Counts in Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Scoping Review. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (7):4069.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Tissa Wijeratne; Carmela Sales; Rohit Menon; Leila Karimi; Mihajlo Jakovljevic. 2021. "Highlighting the Role of Universally Available and Innate Immune Cell Counts in Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Scoping Review." Sustainability 13, no. 7: 4069.

Review
Published: 19 March 2021 in Sustainability
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(1) Background: Society and public policy have been remained interwoven since the inception of the modern state. Public health policy has been one of the important elements of the public administration of the Government of India (GOI). In order to universalize healthcare facilities for all, the GOI has formulated and implemented the national health policy (NHP). The latest NHP (2017) has been focused on the “Health in All” approach. On the other hand, the ongoing pandemic COVID-19 had left critical impacts on India’s health, healthcare system, and human security. The paper’s main focus is to critically examine the existing healthcare facilities and the GOI’s response to combat the COVID-19 apropos the NHP 2017. The paper suggests policy options that can be adopted to prevent the further expansion of the pandemic and prepare the country for future health emergency-like situations. (2) Methods: Extensive literature search was done in various databases, such as Scopus, Web of Science, Medline/PubMed, and google scholar search engines to gather relevant information in the Indian context. (3) Results: Notwithstanding the several combatting steps on a war-footing level, COVID-19 has placed an extra burden over the already overstretched healthcare infrastructure. Consequently, infected cases and deaths have been growing exponentially, making India stand in second place among the top ten COVID-19-infected countries. (4) Conclusions: India needs to expand the public healthcare system and enhance the expenditure as per the set goals in NHP-17 and WHO standards. The private healthcare system has not been proved reliable during the emergency. Only the public health system is suitable for the country wherein the population’s substantial size is rural and poor.

ACS Style

Priya Gauttam; Nitesh Patel; Bawa Singh; Jaspal Kaur; Vijay Chattu; Mihajlo Jakovljevic. Public Health Policy of India and COVID-19: Diagnosis and Prognosis of the Combating Response. Sustainability 2021, 13, 3415 .

AMA Style

Priya Gauttam, Nitesh Patel, Bawa Singh, Jaspal Kaur, Vijay Chattu, Mihajlo Jakovljevic. Public Health Policy of India and COVID-19: Diagnosis and Prognosis of the Combating Response. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (6):3415.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Priya Gauttam; Nitesh Patel; Bawa Singh; Jaspal Kaur; Vijay Chattu; Mihajlo Jakovljevic. 2021. "Public Health Policy of India and COVID-19: Diagnosis and Prognosis of the Combating Response." Sustainability 13, no. 6: 3415.

Public health
Published: 04 March 2021 in Frontiers in Public Health
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Cardiovascular diseases, including ischemic heart disease, are the most common causes of morbidity and death in the world, including Serbia, as a middle-income European country. The aim of the study was to determine the costs of preventive examinations for ischemic heart disease in active-duty military personnel, as well as to assess whether this was justified from the point of view of the limited health resources allocated for the treatment of the Republic of Serbia population. This is a retrospective cost-preventive study which included 738 male active-duty military personnel, aged from 23 to 58. The costs of primary prevention of ischemic heart disease in this population were investigated. Out of 738 subjects examined, arterial hypertension was detected in 101 subjects (in 74 of them, arterial hypertension was registered for the first time, while 27 subjects were already subjected to pharmacotherapy for arterial hypertension). Average costs of all services during the periodic-health-examination screening program were €76.96 per subject. However, average costs of all services during the periodic-health-examination screening program for patients with newfound arterial hypertension and poorly regulated arterial hypertension were €767.54 per patient and €2,103.63 per patient, respectively. Since periodic-health-examination screening program in military personnel enabled not only discovery of patient with newfound arterial hypertension but also regular monitoring of those who are already on antihypertensive therapy, significant savings of €690.58 per patient and €2,026.67 per patient can be achieved, respectively. As financial resources for providing health care in Serbia, as a middle-income country, are limited, further efforts should be put on screening programs for ischemic heart disease due to possible significant savings.

ACS Style

Radoje Simic; Nenad Ratkovic; Viktorija Dragojevic Simic; Zorica Savkovic; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Vitomir Peric; Milena Pandrc; Nemanja Rancic. Cost Analysis of Health Examination Screening Program for Ischemic Heart Disease in Active-Duty Military Personnel in the Middle-Income Country. Frontiers in Public Health 2021, 9, 1 .

AMA Style

Radoje Simic, Nenad Ratkovic, Viktorija Dragojevic Simic, Zorica Savkovic, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Vitomir Peric, Milena Pandrc, Nemanja Rancic. Cost Analysis of Health Examination Screening Program for Ischemic Heart Disease in Active-Duty Military Personnel in the Middle-Income Country. Frontiers in Public Health. 2021; 9 ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Radoje Simic; Nenad Ratkovic; Viktorija Dragojevic Simic; Zorica Savkovic; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Vitomir Peric; Milena Pandrc; Nemanja Rancic. 2021. "Cost Analysis of Health Examination Screening Program for Ischemic Heart Disease in Active-Duty Military Personnel in the Middle-Income Country." Frontiers in Public Health 9, no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 03 March 2021
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Neutrophil counts (innate immunity) and lymphocyte counts (adaptive immunity) are common markers of inflammation in the context of acute stroke, and Neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is likely to be expected to predict the post-stroke outcome. This study aimed to explore the predictive value of NLR to predict the very early mortality during the acute hospital admission (death within the first week of hospital stay) as this has management implications for the ongoing investigations, family discussions and resource allocation. This the first such study attempting at exploring the role of NLR in hyperacute in-patient mortality in the world to the best of our knowledge. This retrospective study included 120 patients (60 acute stroke patients who died within the first week of the hospital stay and 60 age, sex-matched controls who were discharged within two weeks of the hospital admission, alive. We reviewed the total white cell counts of these patients (first 72 hours of the hospital admission) and NLR was calculated manually. While there was no statistically significant difference between mean neutrophil counts and mean lymphocyte counts between the two cohorts [neutrophil counts (mean, SD), 8.52(3.20) in the death cohort, 6.48(2.20) among survivors and lymphocyte (mean, SD), 1.83(1.48) in the death cohort,1.66 (0.69) among survivors], there was a statistically significant difference in NLR between the two cohorts. NLR (mean, SD) was 6.51 (4.98) in the death cohort while the survivors had mean NLR of 4.64 with an SD 2.90 with a p-value of 0.048. Hypertension, diabetes, atrial fibrillation, previous vascular events were common in both groups indicating the value of exploring the evidence of background compromised vascular system and metabolic syndrome and bringing the systems biology approach to the management of stroke.

ACS Style

Tissa Wijeratne; Carmela Sales; Leila Karimi; Mihajlo Jakovljevic. Elevated Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio Predicts In-hospital Mortality Among Stroke Patients in a Metropolitan hospital in Australia, Universal Value-added measure in Stroke Care. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Tissa Wijeratne, Carmela Sales, Leila Karimi, Mihajlo Jakovljevic. Elevated Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio Predicts In-hospital Mortality Among Stroke Patients in a Metropolitan hospital in Australia, Universal Value-added measure in Stroke Care. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Tissa Wijeratne; Carmela Sales; Leila Karimi; Mihajlo Jakovljevic. 2021. "Elevated Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio Predicts In-hospital Mortality Among Stroke Patients in a Metropolitan hospital in Australia, Universal Value-added measure in Stroke Care." , no. : 1.

Review
Published: 16 February 2021
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Stroke represents one of the most important causes of morbidity ( eighty million patients with disabling of ongoing effects of stroke at a given time, globally) and mortality (the second leading cause of death) worldwide. Innovative systems biology-based approach is likely to increase the understanding of the underpinning of acute stroke promise to enhance stroke prevention, acute treatment, and neurorehabilitation. Recent growing body of evidence with shared pathobiology with COVID-19 and the critically important role of inflammation in the context of stroke points to far-reaching consequences of acute stroke, just as in the case of COVID-19 ( post-acute event issues as well as long term issues ) . So far, stroke typically defined by late-appearing disease manifestation by the range of stroke subtypes as defined by the WHO or American Stroke Association. This definition neglects the underlying pathobiological mechanisms such as low-grade chronic inflammation and already compromised vascular system. Diseases such as stroke is hardly a simple result of a single problem, but rather a complex cascade of pathobiological processes and interactions in a complex biochemical environment. The evidence of changes in innate immunity and adaptive immunity during the index event of acute stroke and recovery over next 3-12 months can be easily elicited with simple bedside blood tests such as neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) with well over 300 published papers including several systematic reviews and meta-analyses confirming this. Global standard operating procedures (SOP) of stroke care dictated by the national and international stroke guidelines at present. It is imperative to explore the evidence of systems biology approach in current stroke guidelines. This is likely to be a key turning point in managing stroke across the continuum (prevention, management of acute event and rehabilitation).

ACS Style

Tissa Wijeratne; Carmela Sales; Leila Karimi; Mihajlo Jakovljevicd. Scoping Review of Existing Stroke Guidelines; Argument for a Value-Added Change. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Tissa Wijeratne, Carmela Sales, Leila Karimi, Mihajlo Jakovljevicd. Scoping Review of Existing Stroke Guidelines; Argument for a Value-Added Change. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Tissa Wijeratne; Carmela Sales; Leila Karimi; Mihajlo Jakovljevicd. 2021. "Scoping Review of Existing Stroke Guidelines; Argument for a Value-Added Change." , no. : 1.

Preprint
Published: 11 February 2021
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Stroke is one of the leading cause of adult disability and the second leading cause of death worldwide. The immune system actively participates in the pathobiological process of AIS, during the index event and during the repair process despite the limited attention drawn to this aspect in the existing stroke guidelines globally. The similar clinical course and similar circulating innate and adaptive immune cell counts in AIS and COVID-19 has created a renewed interest in these easily available biomarkers innate and adaptive immunological changes in AIS with potential diagnostic, prognostic, and therapeutic implications. The current scoping review aimed to assess the significance of circulating neutrophil and lymphocyte counts and their ratio (NLR) in AIS and explore their association with post-stroke recovery trajectory. The Arksey and O'Malley methodological framework was employed to review the published papers on the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and AIS in late November 2020. Only studies published in English from 2000-2020 were included in this scoping review. Fifty-three published papers were reviewed. This review's key finding is that a canonical inflammatory response occurs in AIS just as in the case of COVID-19 and neurological involvements well described in the recent literature. An excessive circulating innate immune cells (neutrophils) and reduced circulating adaptive immune cells (lymphocytes ) are associated with poorer outcomes during the acute interventions ( reperfusion therapies) as well as the recovery trajectory. Main representatives of innate and adaptive immunity follow a canonical course in AIS and COVID-19. Exaggerated circulating innate ( elevated neutrophils and elevated NLR) and reduced adaptive immune response (lymphopenia) correlate with the worse outcome in AIS and COVID-19. This scoping review's findings make the strongest case for a systems biology-based approach to the standard operating procedures in stroke care urgently.

ACS Style

Tissa Wijeratne; Carmela Sales; Rohit Menon; Leila Karimi; Mihajlo Jakovljevic. Universally Available Innate and Adaptive Immune Cell Counts in Acute Ischemic Stroke (AIS) in the Context of Shared Pathobiology with COVID-19; Scoping Review. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Tissa Wijeratne, Carmela Sales, Rohit Menon, Leila Karimi, Mihajlo Jakovljevic. Universally Available Innate and Adaptive Immune Cell Counts in Acute Ischemic Stroke (AIS) in the Context of Shared Pathobiology with COVID-19; Scoping Review. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Tissa Wijeratne; Carmela Sales; Rohit Menon; Leila Karimi; Mihajlo Jakovljevic. 2021. "Universally Available Innate and Adaptive Immune Cell Counts in Acute Ischemic Stroke (AIS) in the Context of Shared Pathobiology with COVID-19; Scoping Review." , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 31 December 2020 in The Open Public Health Journal
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Introduction: Self-isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic is a temporary measure to limit the spread of infection. All citizens arriving from abroad to Russia must comply with the rules of self-isolation. Since April 2, 2020, almost all citizens of the Russian Federation have followed the rules of self-isolation. Also, this month in the Russian capital, Moscow, about 6 million citizens have isolated themselves. In general, in the territory of Russia, the number of citizens on self-isolation reached 100 million. Billions of citizens around the world are staying at home due to the self-isolation regime, so a sanitary assessment must be considered. Self-isolation, characterized by physical inactivity, hypoxia, diet disturbances, lifestyle changes during work / rest, mental stress; this provides an opportunity to identify the presence of public health risk factors and contributes to an increase in the incidence of No Communicable Diseases (NCDs). Purpose of the Study: Carrying out a sanitary-hygienic assessment of COVID-19 self-isolation, determining priority risk factors causing non-infectious diseases, and proposing preventive measures. Objectives: To Identify public health risk factors during self-isolation. To conduct a comprehensive hygienic assessment of self-isolation according to the priority criteria. To develop a pointing system (hygiene index for self-isolation). To propose measures to minimize health risks during self-isolation. Materials and Methods: We used analytical, and systematization approaches. Information from the legal documents of the hygienic-sanitary laws of the Government of the Russian Federation (nutrition hygiene, hygiene of workforce, children, and teenagers). World Health Organization COVID-19 documents. Research Results: We assessed the sanitary-hygienic aspects of self-isolation to identify the leading risk factors on public health, and as a result, we proposed hygienic criteria for self-isolation. We developed a hygienic self-isolation index point score (HSIPS) that considers the Russian law-based requirements for diet, work, rest, and physical activities. Thus, the usage of those hygienic standards is beneficial to prevent public health risks in ordinary and extremely challenging conditions of self-isolation. We proposed measures to minimize risks during self-isolation, and we based them on adequate sanitary-hygienic standards. The main sanitary-hygienic risk factors of self-isolation are: sedentary lifestyle, hypoxia, nutritional deficiencies (malnutrition), and work/rest imbalance. Conclusion: We proposed a sanitary-hygienic definition of self-isolation. We identified leading risk factors for public health of the self-isolated population. We proposed sanitary-hygienic criteria for assessing self-isolation based on the regulations and standards of the Government of the Russian Federation. We developed a hygienic self-isolation index point score (HSIPS), which determines that the optimal mode is directly proportional to the coefficients of a person’s physical activity (D), indoor area (air cubic capacity) per isolated (S), time spent in fresh air (T) and inversely proportional to the calorie intake. We proposed measures to prevent noncommunicable diseases (NCD) for citizens on self-isolation.

ACS Style

Oleg V. Mitrokhin; Vladimir A. Reshetnikov; Elena V. Belova; Mihajlo (Michael) Jakovljevic. Sanitary and Hygienic Aspects of the COVID-19 Self-isolation. The Open Public Health Journal 2020, 13, 734 -738.

AMA Style

Oleg V. Mitrokhin, Vladimir A. Reshetnikov, Elena V. Belova, Mihajlo (Michael) Jakovljevic. Sanitary and Hygienic Aspects of the COVID-19 Self-isolation. The Open Public Health Journal. 2020; 13 (1):734-738.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Oleg V. Mitrokhin; Vladimir A. Reshetnikov; Elena V. Belova; Mihajlo (Michael) Jakovljevic. 2020. "Sanitary and Hygienic Aspects of the COVID-19 Self-isolation." The Open Public Health Journal 13, no. 1: 734-738.