Is there a way to describe pedestrian movement with simple rules, as in a cellular automaton, but without being restricted to a cellular grid? Inspired by the natural stepwise movement of humans, we develop a model that uses local discretization on a circle around virtual pedestrians. This allows for movement in arbitrary directions, only limited by the chosen optimization algorithm and numerical resolution. The radii of the circles correspond to the step lengths of pedestrians and thus are model parameters, which must be derived from empirical observation. Therefore, we conducted a controlled experiment, collected empirical data for step lengths in relation with different speeds, and used the findings in our model. We complement the model with a simple calibration algorithm that allows reproducing known density-velocity relations, which constitutes a proof of concept. Further validation of the model is achieved by reenacting an evacuation scenario from experimental research. The simulated egress times match the values reported for the experiment very well. A new normalized measure for space occupancy serves to visualize the results.

Inspired by doubts from social scientists on the validity of computer models that see a crowd as a pure aggregation of individuals, we develop a mathematical model for group formation within crowds. It is based on a few simple characteristics. Most importantly, small groups stick together as they thread their way through a crowd. Additionally, groups have a tendency to walk abreast to ease communication. Through simulation, we establish that the occurrence of groups significantly impacts crowd movement, namely evacuation times. Further, we complement and validate the simulations by a small experiment: a classroom egress. The simulation results match the measurements qualitatively. We get a good quantitative match after calibrating the supposed desire to communicate while walking—and hence to walk abreast. We conclude that it is one of the crucial parameters to calibrate the group model against reality. While working on a mathematically complete model, a new gap between the mathematical modelling and the social sciences emerged: some model assumptions are based on the modeller's intuition rather than on sociological or psychological insight validated by the scientific community. We hope the findings—and resulting suggestions—will in return inspire new cooperation between the disciplines.

We present a microscopic ordinary differential equation (ODE)-based model for pedestrian dynamics: the gradient navigation model. The model uses a superposition of gradients of distance functions to directly change the direction of the velocity vector. The velocity is then integrated to obtain the location. The approach differs fundamentally from force-based models needing only three equations to derive the ODE system, as opposed to four in, e.g., the social force model. Also, as a result, pedestrians are no longer subject to inertia. Several other advantages ensue: Model-induced oscillations are avoided completely since no actual forces are present. The derivatives in the equations of motion are smooth and therefore allow the use of fast and accurate high-order numerical integrators. At the same time, the existence and uniqueness of the solution to the ODE system follow almost directly from the smoothness properties. In addition, we introduce a method to calibrate parameters by theoretical arguments based on empirically validated assumptions rather than by numerical tests. These parameters, combined with the accurate integration, yield simulation results with no collisions of pedestrians. Several empirically observed system phenomena emerge without the need to recalibrate the parameter set for each scenario: obstacle avoidance, lane formation, stop-and-go waves, and congestion at bottlenecks. The density evolution in the latter is shown to be quantitatively close to controlled experiments. Likewise, we observe a dependence of the crowd velocity on the local density that compares well with benchmark fundamental diagrams.

Social scientists have criticised computer models of pedestrian streams for their treatment of psychological crowds as mere aggregations of individuals. Indeed most models for evacuation dynamics use analogies from physics where pedestrians are considered as particles. Although this ensures that the results of the simulation match important physical phenomena, such as the deceleration of the crowd with increasing density, social phenomena such as group processes are ignored. In particular, people in a crowd have social identities and share those social identities with the others in the crowd. The process of self categorisation determines norms within the crowd and influences how people will behave in evacuation situations. We formulate the application of social identity in pedestrian simulation algorithmically. The goal is to examine whether it is possible to carry over the psychological model to computer models of pedestrian motion so that simulation results correspond to observations from crowd psychology. That is, we quantify and formalise empirical research on and verbal descriptions of the effect of group identity on behaviour. We use uncertainty quantification to analyse the model’s behaviour when we vary crucial model parameters. In this first approach we restrict ourselves to a specific scenario that was thoroughly investigated by crowd psychologists and where some quantitative data is available: the bombing and subsequent evacuation of a London underground tube carriage on July 7th 2005

The social force model of Helbing and Molnár is one of the best known approaches to simulate pedestrian motion, a collective phenomenon with nonlinear dynamics. It is based on the idea that the Newtonian laws of motion mostly carry over to pedestrian motion so that human trajectories can be computed by solving a set of ordinary differential equations for velocity and acceleration. The beauty and simplicity of this ansatz are strong reasons for its wide spread. However, the numerical implementation is not without pitfalls. Oscillations, collisions, and instabilities occur even for very small step sizes. Classic solution ideas from molecular dynamics do not apply to the problem because the system is not Hamiltonian despite its source of inspiration. Looking at the model through the eyes of a mathematician, however, we realize that the right hand side of the differential equation is nondifferentiable and even discontinuous at critical locations. This produces undesirable behavior in the exact solution and, at best, severe loss of accuracy in efficient numerical schemes even in short range simulations. We suggest a very simple mollified version of the social force model that conserves the desired dynamic properties of the original many-body system but elegantly and cost efficiently resolves several of the issues concerning stability and numerical resolution.