Spatial mapping of remote sensing data tends to be used less when valuing coastal ecosystem services than in other ecosystems. This research project aimed to understand obstacles to the use of remote sensing data in coastal ecosystem valuations, and to educate coastal stakeholders on potential remote sensing data sources and techniques. A workshop program identified important barriers to the adoption of remote sensing data: perceived gaps in spatial and temporal scale, uncertainty about confidence intervals and precision of remote sensing data, and linkages between coastal ecosystem services and values. Case studies that demonstrated the state of the science were used to show methods to overcome the barriers. The case studies demonstrate multiple approaches to valuation that have been used successfully in coastal projects, and validate that spatial mapping of remote sensing data may fill critical gaps, such as cost-effectively generating calibrated historical data.

As urban areas encroach on sensitive rural lands, balancing economic development with environmental concerns becomes more difficult. In rapidly growing Florida, Comprehensive Land Use Plans attempt to address this issue by designating allowable future land use and zoning; however, these plans don't always align with an individual landowner's objectives. Given this discrepancy, land use can be patterned, and therefore predicted by aggregating all parcel-specific decisions of individual landowners over time. This methodology may assist practitioners when policy decisions such as transportation design, ecosystem restoration, and land preservation require a parcel level approach. The aggregation of parcel-specific decisions by individual landowners requires econometric models which incorporate GIS analysis; these models help predict development at the parcel level through analysis of spatially explicit attributes and other indicators. This paper analyzes 22 square miles of the environmentally sensitive Wekiva River Basin (WRB) near metropolitan Orlando, Florida. This area was recently approved for a bisecting roadway which is expected to increase the conversion of rural to developed land. For the WRB area, a specified probit regression model predicted with 91% accuracy which parcels would remain in rural use, and which would develop by the end of a five year period. The model's output was then overlaid with current data to forecast future parcel-specific land use decisions over a five year horizon. Impacts for conservation and land purchases, impaired waterways, and right-of-way acquisition are forecasted over that horizon and discussed later in the paper. This paper is organized as follows: first, a brief review of the theory underlying the model is presented; next, the model and data specification; the results; and finally, applications of the model which use predicted outcomes in several resource-related scenarios.

The Indian River Lagoon is a 250-km-long Estuary of National Significance located along the east-central Florida coast of the USA. NOAA tidal data generated at a station located in the central reaches of the estuary indicate sea level rise has accelerated over the duration of record to an average of 9.6 ± 1.6 mm year−1 (2003–2022). It is expected to continue accelerating over the duration of this century. This investigation simulated submergence of the estuary using the on-line geospatial tool Future Shorelines to evaluate the effects of sea level rise on a suite of natural and built attributes that either contribute to (i.e., boat ramps, spoil islands, seagrass) or degrade (septic and wastewater treatment systems) ecosystem services. The simulations are based upon the median NOAA high sea level rise trajectory in target years 2050, 2070, and 2100. By 2050, 23% of the public motorized boat ramps and 87% of the spoil islands that provide recreation and conservation services will be largely to completely inundated. Seven percent of the known or likely septic systems in the watershed will be submerged by 2050. Sea level rise does not compromise any of the eleven wastewater treatment plants considered in this study over the next 25 years. Seagrass distribution is expected to decline 34% by 2050 due to a reduction in substate area above the light-dependent median depth limit. By 2100, all ramps, spoil islands, over 27,000 (22%) septic systems, and six wastewater treatment plants will be inundated. By then, the average water depth will exceed the median depth limit for seagrass throughout most of the estuary. Ecosystem service mitigation strategies are presented for the attributes considered. The development of the submergence simulation tool and discussion of mitigation options benefited by collaboration with project partners responsible for resource management in the study domain. This coproduction ensured the simulation outputs and mitigation options were realistic and actionable. The risks to estuarine ecosystem services induced by urbanization and sea level rise are reported worldwide and the methodological approach of this study offers a novel means of developing or enhancing mitigation strategies.