Seawater quality is critical for island and coastal communities dependent on coastal tourism. Improper management of coastal development and inland watersheds can decrease seawater quality and adversely impact marine life, human health, and economic growth. Agricultural runoff and improper sewage management compromise nearshore water quality in many coastal regions and can impact visitation decisions of tourists who are drawn to these destinations. The purpose of this paper is to understand how tourists’ decisions to revisit Barbados might be affected by changes in coastal and marine quality. We use data collected from tourists to examine how tourists’ stated willingness to return is affected by scenarios involving changes in seawater quality, beach width and coral reef health. Results reveal that return decisions are sensitive to changes in all aspects of coastal and marine quality. A reduction in seawater quality discourages tourists’ intention to return more than other environmental factors. These results are of paramount interest to destination managers, marketers and policymakers who rely on repeat visitation data to develop marketing strategies and infer future direction. This research highlights the importance of prioritizing seawater quality management to protect the coastal tourism product, especially in small island developing states (SIDS) with a high reliance on tourism income.

The ability to quantify nature's value for tourism has significant implications for natural resource management and sustainable development policy. This is especially true in the Eastern Caribbean, where many countries are embracing the concept of the Blue Economy. The utilization of user-generated content (UGC) to understand tourist activities and preferences, including the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning approaches, remains at the early stages of development and application. This work describes a new effort which has modelled and mapped multiple nature dependent sectors of the tourism industry across five small island nations. It makes broad use of UGC, while acknowledging the challenges and strengthening the approach with substantive input, correction, and modification from local experts. Our approach to measuring the nature-dependency of tourism is practical and scalable, producing data, maps and statistics of sufficient detail and veracity to support sustainable resource management, marine spatial planning, and the wider promotion of the Blue Economy framework.