Banking time series forecasting gains a main rule in finance and economics which has encouraged the researchers to introduce a fit models in forecasting accuracy. In this paper, the researchers present the advantages of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model forecasting accuracy. Banking data from Amman stock market (ASE) in Jordan was selected as a tool to show the ability of ARIMA in forecasting banking data. Therefore, Daily data from 1993 until 2017 is used for this study. As a result this article shows that the ARIMA model has significant results for short-term prediction. Therefore, these results will be helpful for the investments.
Closed price forecasting plays a main rule in finance and economics which has encouraged the researchers to introduce a fit model in forecasting accuracy. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has developed and implemented in many applications. Therefore, in this article the researchers utilize ARIMA model in predicting the closed time series data which have been collected from Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) from Jan. 2010 to Jan. 2018. As a result this article shows that the ARIMA model has significant results for short-term prediction. Therefore, these results will be helpful for the investments.
Many researchers documented that the stock market data are nonstationary and nonlinear time series data. In this study, we use EMD-HW bagging method for nonstationary and nonlinear time series forecasting. The EMD-HW bagging method is based on the empirical mode decomposition (EMD), the moving block bootstrap and the Holt-Winter. The stock market time series of six countries are used to compare EMD-HW bagging method. This comparison is based on five forecasting error measurements. The comparison shows that the forecasting results of EMD-HW bagging are more accurate than the forecasting results of the fourteen selected methods.
30 November 2020 in The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
This study implements various, maximum overlap, discrete wavelet transform filters to model and forecast the time-dependent mortality index of the Lee-Carter model. The choice of appropriate wavelet filters is essential in effectively capturing the dynamics in a period. This cannot be accomplished by using the ARIMA model alone. In this paper, the ARIMA model is enhanced with the integration of various maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform filters such as the least asymmetric, best-localized, and Coiflet filters. These models are then applied to the mortality data of Australia, England, France, Japan, and USA. The accuracy of the projecting log of death rates of the MODWT-ARIMA model with the aforementioned wavelet filters are assessed using mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, and mean absolute scaled error. The MODWT-ARIMA (5,1,0) model with the BL14 filter gives the best fit to the log of death rates data for males, females, and total population, for all five countries studied. Implementing the MODWT leads towards improvement in the performance of the standard framework of the LC model in forecasting mortality rates.