To quantify the flood risks in cascade dam systems, it is critical to analyze the risk factors and potential breaking failure paths. In this study, Bayesian networks (BNs) were applied to create a flood risk analysis model for a cascade dam system. Expert experiment, historical data, and computational formulas were employed to estimate the prior probability and original conditional probability tables (CPTs) in the BN model; sensitivity analysis was used to ensure the original continuous breaking failure path in the system. To avoid the possible misperceptions of the probability of a certain event, Dam Breach Analysis Model (DB-IWHR) 2014 software and the flood regulation method were used to simulate the dam breaking progress. The posteriori continuous breaking failure paths were obtained, and then the original CPTs were refined based on the new evidence. The proposed method was applied to the Bala-Busigou-Shuangjiangkou (BL-BSG-SJK), which is located upstream of the Dadu River basin in China. The results show that three continuous breaking failure paths could be identified in the researched cascade dam system. A new BN model was created to determine the failure probability of the cascade dam system under the three continuous breaking failure paths. This analytical method may also be useful for other similar cases.

The impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on regional evaporation and runoff characteristics have been investigated for the Biliu River basin, which is located in Liaoning Province, northeast China. Multiple climate change scenarios from phase 3 and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) (21 scenarios in total) were utilized. A calibrated hydrologic model—SWAT model—was used to simulate future discharges based on downscaled climate data through a validated morphing method. Results show that both annual temperature and precipitation increase under most of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 scenarios, and increase more in the far future (2041–2065) than in the near future (2016–2040). These changes in precipitation and temperature lead to an increase in evaporation under 19 scenarios and a decrease in runoff under two-thirds of the selected scenarios. Compared to CMIP3, CMIP5 scenarios show higher temperature and wider ranges of changes in precipitation and runoff. The results provide important information on the impacts of global climate change on water resources availability in the Biliu River basin, which is beneficial for the planning and management of water resources in this region.