Globally, human immunodeficiency virus–type 1 (HIV-1) is extraordinarily variable, and this diversity poses a major obstacle to AIDS vaccine development. Currently, candidate vaccines are derived from isolates, with the hope that they will be sufficiently cross-reactive to protect against circulating viruses. This may be overly optimistic, however, given that HIV-1 envelope proteins can differ in more than 30% of their amino acids. To contend with the diversity, country-specific vaccines are being considered, but evolutionary relationships may be more useful than regional considerations. Consensus or ancestor sequences could be used in vaccine design to minimize the genetic differences between vaccine strains and contemporary isolates, effectively reducing the extent of diversity by half.

Human and simian immunodeficiency viruses (HIV and SIV), influenza virus, and hepatitis C virus (HCV) have heavily glycosylated, highly variable surface proteins. Here we explore N-linked glycosylation site (sequon) variation at the population level in these viruses, using a new Web-based program developed to facilitate the sequon tracking and to define patterns (www.hiv.lanl.gov). This tool allowed rapid visualization of the two distinctive patterns of sequon variation found in HIV-1, HIV-2, and SIV CPZ. The first pattern (fixed) describes readily aligned sites that are either simply present or absent. These sites tend to be occupied by high-mannose glycans. The second pattern (shifting) refers to sites embedded in regions of extreme local length variation and is characterized by shifts in terms of the relative position and local density of sequons; these sites tend to be populated by complex carbohydrates. HIV, with its extreme variation in number and precise location of sequons, does not have a net increase in the number of sites over time at the population level. Primate lentiviral lineages have host species–dependent levels of sequon shifting, with HIV-1 in humans the most extreme. HCV E1 and E2 proteins, despite evolving extremely rapidly through point mutation, show limited sequon variation, although two shifting sites were identified. Human influenza A hemagglutinin H3 HA1 is accumulating sequons over time, but this trend is not evident in any other avian or human influenza A serotypes.

Clostridium botulinum is a taxonomic designation for many diverse anaerobic spore-forming rod-shaped bacteria that have the common property of producing botulinum neurotoxins (BoNTs). The BoNTs are exoneurotoxins that can cause severe paralysis and death in humans and other animal species. A collection of 174 C. botulinum strains was examined by amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) analysis and by sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene and BoNT genes to examine the genetic diversity within this species. This collection contained representatives of each of the seven different serotypes of botulinum neurotoxins (BoNT/A to BoNT/G). Analysis of the16S rRNA gene sequences confirmed previous identifications of at least four distinct genomic backgrounds (groups I to IV), each of which has independently acquired one or more BoNT genes through horizontal gene transfer. AFLP analysis provided higher resolution and could be used to further subdivide the four groups into subgroups. Sequencing of the BoNT genes from multiple strains of serotypes A, B, and E confirmed significant sequence variation within each serotype. Four distinct lineages within each of the BoNT A and B serotypes and five distinct lineages of serotype E strains were identified. The nucleotide sequences of the seven toxin genes of the serotypes were compared and showed various degrees of interrelatedness and recombination, as was previously noted for the nontoxic nonhemagglutinin gene, which is linked to the BoNT gene. These analyses contribute to the understanding of the evolution and phylogeny within this species and assist in the development of improved diagnostics and therapeutics for the treatment of botulism.

To investigate the evolutionary history of the recent outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) in China, a total of 70 genomes of virus strains from China and elsewhere with sampling dates between 24 December 2019 and 3 February 2020 were analyzed. To explore the potential intermediate animal host of the SARS‐CoV‐2 virus, we reanalyzed virome data sets from pangolins and representative SARS‐related coronaviruses isolates from bats, with particular attention paid to the spike glycoprotein gene. We performed phylogenetic, split network, transmission network, likelihood‐mapping, and comparative analyses of the genomes. Based on Bayesian time‐scaled phylogenetic analysis using the tip‐dating method, we estimated the time to the most recent common ancestor and evolutionary rate of SARS‐CoV‐2, which ranged from 22 to 24 November 2019 and 1.19 to 1.31 × 10⁻³ substitutions per site per year, respectively. Our results also revealed that the BetaCoV/bat/Yunnan/RaTG13/2013 virus was more similar to the SARS‐CoV‐2 virus than the coronavirus obtained from the two pangolin samples (SRR10168377 and SRR10168378). We also identified a unique peptide (PRRA) insertion in the human SARS‐CoV‐2 virus, which may be involved in the proteolytic cleavage of the spike protein by cellular proteases, and thus could impact host range and transmissibility. Interestingly, the coronavirus carried by pangolins did not have the RRAR motif. Therefore, we concluded that the human SARS‐CoV‐2 virus, which is responsible for the recent outbreak of COVID‐19, did not come directly from pangolins.

Summary: We have developed an analysis pipeline to facilitate real-time mutation tracking in SARS-CoV-2, focusing initially on the Spike (S) protein because it mediates infection of human cells and is the target of most vaccine strategies and antibody-based therapeutics. To date we have identified thirteen mutations in Spike that are accumulating. Mutations are considered in a broader phylogenetic context, geographically, and over time, to provide an early warning system to reveal mutations that may confer selective advantages in transmission or resistance to interventions. Each one is evaluated for evidence of positive selection, and the implications of the mutation are explored through structural modeling. The mutation Spike D614G is of urgent concern; it began spreading in Europe in early February, and when introduced to new regions it rapidly becomes the dominant form. Also, we present evidence of recombination between locally circulating strains, indicative of multiple strain infections. These finding have important implications for SARS-CoV-2 transmission, pathogenesis and immune interventions.

Escape from T cell–mediated immune responses affects the ongoing evolution of rapidly evolving viruses such as HIV. By applying statistical approaches that account for phylogenetic relationships among viral sequences, we show that viral lineage effects rather than immune escape often explain apparent human leukocyte antigen (HLA)–mediated immune-escape mutations defined by older analysis methods. Phylogenetically informed methods identified immune-susceptible locations with greatly improved accuracy, and the associations we identified with these methods were experimentally validated. This approach has practical implications for understanding the impact of host immunity on pathogen evolution and for defining relevant variants for inclusion in vaccine antigens.