Soils and other unconsolidated deposits in the northern circumpolar permafrost region store large amounts of soil organic carbon (SOC). This SOC is potentially vulnerable to remobilization following soil warming and permafrost thaw, but SOC stock estimates were poorly constrained and quantitative error estimates were lacking. This study presents revised estimates of permafrost SOC stocks, including quantitative uncertainty estimates, in the 0–3 m depth range in soils as well as for sediments deeper than 3 m in deltaic deposits of major rivers and in the Yedoma region of Siberia and Alaska. Revised estimates are based on significantly larger databases compared to previous studies. Despite this there is evidence of significant remaining regional data gaps. Estimates remain particularly poorly constrained for soils in the High Arctic region and physiographic regions with thin sedimentary overburden (mountains, highlands and plateaus) as well as for deposits below 3 m depth in deltas and the Yedoma region. While some components of the revised SOC stocks are similar in magnitude to those previously reported for this region, there are substantial differences in other components, including the fraction of perennially frozen SOC. Upscaled based on regional soil maps, estimated permafrost region SOC stocks are 217 ± 12 and 472 ± 27 Pg for the 0–0.3 and 0–1 m soil depths, respectively (±95% confidence intervals). Storage of SOC in 0–3 m of soils is estimated to 1035 ± 150 Pg. Of this, 34 ± 16 Pg C is stored in poorly developed soils of the High Arctic. Based on generalized calculations, storage of SOC below 3 m of surface soils in deltaic alluvium of major Arctic rivers is estimated as 91 ± 52 Pg. In the Yedoma region, estimated SOC stocks below 3 m depth are 181 ± 54 Pg, of which 74 ± 20 Pg is stored in intact Yedoma (late Pleistocene ice- and organic-rich silty sediments) with the remainder in refrozen thermokarst deposits. Total estimated SOC storage for the permafrost region is ∼1300 Pg with an uncertainty range of ∼1100 to 1500 Pg. Of this, ∼500 Pg is in non-permafrost soils, seasonally thawed in the active layer or in deeper taliks, while ∼800 Pg is perennially frozen. This represents a substantial ∼300 Pg lowering of the estimated perennially frozen SOC stock compared to previous estimates.

Northern peatlands have accumulated large stocks of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), but their spatial distribution and vulnerability to climate warming remain uncertain. Here, we used machine-learning techniques with extensive peat core data (n > 7,000) to create observation-based maps of northern peatland C and N stocks, and to assess their response to warming and permafrost thaw. We estimate that northern peatlands cover 3.7 ± 0.5 million km² and store 415 ± 150 Pg C and 10 ± 7 Pg N. Nearly half of the peatland area and peat C stocks are permafrost affected. Using modeled global warming stabilization scenarios (from 1.5 to 6 °C warming), we project that the current sink of atmospheric C (0.10 ± 0.02 Pg C⋅y⁻¹) in northern peatlands will shift to a C source as 0.8 to 1.9 million km² of permafrost-affected peatlands thaw. The projected thaw would cause peatland greenhouse gas emissions equal to ∼1% of anthropogenic radiative forcing in this century. The main forcing is from methane emissions (0.7 to 3 Pg cumulative CH₄-C) with smaller carbon dioxide forcing (1 to 2 Pg CO₂-C) and minor nitrous oxide losses. We project that initial CO₂-C losses reverse after ∼200 y, as warming strengthens peatland C-sinks. We project substantial, but highly uncertain, additional losses of peat into fluvial systems of 10 to 30 Pg C and 0.4 to 0.9 Pg N. The combined gaseous and fluvial peatland C loss estimated here adds 30 to 50% onto previous estimates of permafrost-thaw C losses, with southern permafrost regions being the most vulnerable. Significance Over many millennia, northern peatlands have accumulated large amounts of carbon and nitrogen, thus cooling the global climate. Over shorter timescales, peatland disturbances can trigger losses of peat and release of greenhouses gases. Despite their importance to the global climate, peatlands remain poorly mapped, and the vulnerability of permafrost peatlands to warming is uncertain. This study compiles over 7,000 field observations to present a data-driven map of northern peatlands and their carbon and nitrogen stocks. We use these maps to model the impact of permafrost thaw on peatlands and find that warming will likely shift the greenhouse gas balance of northern peatlands. At present, peatlands cool the climate, but anthropogenic warming can shift them into a net source of warming.

Peatlands contain a large belowground carbon (C) stock in the biosphere, and their dynamics have important implications for the global carbon cycle. However, there are still large uncertainties in C stock estimates and poor understanding of C dynamics across timescales. Here I review different approaches and associated uncertainties of C stock estimates in the literature, and on the basis of the literature review my best estimate of C stocks and uncertainty is 500 ± 100 (approximate range) gigatons of C (Gt C) in northern peatlands. The greatest source of uncertainty for all the approaches is the lack or insufficient representation of data, including depth, bulk density and carbon accumulation data, especially from the world's large peatlands. Several ways to improve estimates of peat carbon stocks are also discussed in this paper, including the estimates of C stocks by regions and further utilizations of widely available basal peat ages. Changes in peatland carbon stocks over time, estimated using Sphagnum (peat moss) spore data and down-core peat accumulation records, show different patterns during the Holocene, and I argue that spore-based approach underestimates the abundance of peatlands in their early histories. Considering long-term peat decomposition using peat accumulation data allows estimates of net carbon sequestration rates by peatlands, or net (ecosystem) carbon balance (NECB), which indicates more than half of peat carbon (> 270 Gt C) was sequestrated before 7000 yr ago during the Holocene. Contemporary carbon flux studies at 5 peatland sites show much larger NECB during the last decade (32 ± 7.8 (S.E.) g C m⁻² yr^–1) than during the last 7000 yr (∼ 11 g C m⁻² yr^–1), as modeled from peat records across northern peatlands. This discrepancy highlights the urgent need for carbon accumulation data and process understanding, especially at decadal and centennial timescales, that would bridge current knowledge gaps and facilitate comparisons of NECB across all timescales.