China is the world’s largest anthropogenic methane (CH₄) emitter, with coal mine methane (CMM) as one of the main contributors. However, previous studies have not reach consensus on the magnitude and trend of China’s CMM emissions since 2010. Through distribution fitting and Monte Carlo methods, dynamic emission factors (EFs) of CMM at the province-level were derived with high confidence; along with the updated data on surface mining, abandoned coal mines, and methane utilization, we revealed that China’s annual CMM emissions were estimated at 20.11 Tg between 2010 and 2019 with a decline of 0.93 Tg yr⁻¹. Although coal production was revived in 2017, we found that the growing trend of China’s CMM emissions since 2012 were curbed by the previously-overlooked factors including the growth of CMM utilization and coal production from surface mining, and decrease of EFs driven by the closure of high CH₄-content coal mines and a regional production shift to lower-emission areas.

The transition away from coal involves the widespread closure of coal mines. While the potential adverse consequences of these closures on industry and the local economy have received considerable attention, empirical evidence on the benefits of water resources remains limited. Here, we quantify the effect of coal mine closure on terrestrial water storage (TWS) in China using satellite data and a staggered difference-in-differences approach. Our findings indicate a rapid restoration in TWS following closure, with coal mine closures increasing TWS by an average of 18.8 ± 8.9 mm per year. This increase in TWS is primarily attributable to augmented groundwater storage and reduced industrial water usage. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that these TWS gains exceed the indirect impacts of climate change mitigation efforts on water resources, potentially complementing such strategies in water-stressed regions. Overall, our study underscores the positive environmental impact of coal mine closures on water availability in China, potentially facilitating the transition away from coal production and enhancing the sustainability of the energy transition.

Across the world, human activity is approaching planetary boundaries. In northwest China, in particular, the coal industry and agriculture are competing for key limited inputs of land and water. In this situation, the traditional approach to planning the development of each sector independently fails to deliver sustainable solutions, as solutions made in sectorial ‘silos’ are often suboptimal for the entire economy. We propose a spatially detailed cost-minimizing model for coal and agricultural production in a region under constraints on land and water availability. We apply the model to the case study of Shanxi province, China. We show how such an integrated optimization, which takes maximum advantage of the spatial heterogeneity in resource abundance, could help resolve the conflicts around the water–food–energy (WFE) nexus and assist in its management. We quantify the production-possibility frontiers under different water-availability scenarios and demonstrate that in water-scarce regions, like Shanxi, the production capacity and corresponding production solutions are highly sensitive to water constraints. The shadow prices estimated in the model could be the basis for intelligent differentiated water pricing, not only to enable the water-resource transfer between agriculture and the coal industry, and across regions, but also to achieve cost-effective WFE management.