The Class A pan evaporation rates at many Australian observing stations have reportedly decreased between 1970 and 2002. That pan evaporation rates have decreased at the same time that temperatures have increased has become known as the “pan evaporation paradox.”Pan evaporation is primarily dependant on relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind. In this paper, trends in observed pan evaporation in Australia during the period 1975–2004 were attributed to changes in other climate variables using a Penman-style pan evaporation model. Trends in daily average wind speed (termed wind run) were found to be an important cause of trends in pan evaporation. This result is a significant step toward resolving the pan evaporation paradox for Australia.Data inspection and interstation comparison revealed that some of the significant wind run trends were discontinuous or spatially uncorrelated. These analyses raised the possibility that some of the changes in observed wind run, and by implication some of the significant changes in pan evaporation, may represent changes in the local environment surrounding the observing stations.Daily pressure gradients and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis wind surfaces were analyzed in an attempt to identify any climatological wind run trends associated with large-scale changes in atmospheric circulations. Unfortunately, the trends from the two data sources were not consistent, and the challenge remains to conclusively identify the cause or causes of the changes in observed station wind run in Australia.

Quantitative information about outdoor thermal comfort, on various temporal and spatial scales, is required to design better cities and mitigate heat problems not only in warm but also in temperate climates. The overall objective of this study is to explore the augmentation of global/regional climate changes by urban features such as geometry in a compact mid‐rise high‐latitude city (Gothenburg). The magnitude of spatial and temporal variations of intra‐urban mean radiant temperatures (T_mrt) is quantified using the SOLWEIG (SOlar and LongWave Environmental Irradiance Geometry) model. Hourly time resolution, statistically downscaled meteorological data, based on the ECHAM5‐GCM under the A1B emission scenario is used to simulate changes in T_mrt and physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) at the 2080–2099 time horizon.Results show that urban geometry causes large intra‐urban differences in T_mrt, on hourly, daytime and yearly time scales. In general, open areas are warmer than adjacent narrow street canyons in summer, but cooler in winter. According to the ECHAM5‐based scenario, the daytime T_mrt will increase by 3.2 °C by the end of this century. This is 0.4° more than simulated increase in air temperature (2.8 °C) and is mainly a result of decreases in summer cloudiness. Occasions of strong/extreme heat stress are expected to triple. This equates to 20–100 h a year, depending on geometry. Conversely, the number of hours with strong/extreme cold stress decreases by 400–450 h. Furthermore, the number of hours with no thermal stress increases by 40–200 h a year.The study confirms the potential for using geometry to mitigate daytime thermal stress. A densely built structure mitigates extreme swings in T_mrt and PET, improving outdoor comfort conditions both in summer and in winter. Furthermore, it highlights the importance of including information on either T_mrt or thermal comfort in climate scenarios to describe the combined effects of changes in multiple climate variables and to more realistically measure the impact on humans. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

The urban environment is a complex structure with interlinked social, ecological and technical structures. Global warming is expected to have a broad variety of impacts, which will add to the complexity. Climate changes will force adaptation, to reduce climate-related risks. Adaptation measures can address one aspect at the time, or aim for a holistic approach to avoid maladaptation. This paper presents a systematic, integrated approach for assessing alternatives for reducing the risks of heat waves, flooding and air pollution in urban settings, with the aim of reducing the risk of maladaptation. The study includes strategies covering different spatial scales, and both the current climate situation and the climate predicted under climate change scenarios. The adaptation strategies investigated included increasing vegetation; selecting density, height and colour of buildings; and retreat or resist (defend) against sea-level rise. Their effectiveness was assessed with regard to not only flooding, heat stress and air quality but also with regard to resource use, emissions to air (incl. GHG), soil and water, and people’s perceptions and vulnerability. The effectiveness of the strategies were ranked on a common scale (from −3 to 3) in an integrated assessment. Integrated assessments are recommended, as they help identify the most sustainable solutions, but to reduce the risk of maladaptation they require experts from a variety of disciplines. The most generally applicable recommendation, derived from the integrated assessment here, taking into account both expertise from different municipal departments, literature surveys, life cycle assessments and publics perceptions, is to increase the urban greenery, as it contributes to several positive aspects such as heat stress mitigation, air quality improvement, effective storm-water and flood-risk management, and it has several positive social impacts. The most favourable alternative was compact, mid-rise, light coloured building design with large parks/green areas and trees near buildings