Predicting and mapping fire susceptibility is a top research priority in fire-prone forests worldwide. This study evaluates the abilities of the Bayes Network (BN), Naïve Bayes (NB), Decision Tree (DT), and Multivariate Logistic Regression (MLP) machine learning methods for the prediction and mapping fire susceptibility across the Pu Mat National Park, Nghe An Province, Vietnam. The modeling methodology was formulated based on processing the information from the 57 historical fires and a set of nine spatially explicit explanatory variables, namely elevation, slope degree, aspect, average annual temperate, drought index, river density, land cover, and distance from roads and residential areas. Using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and seven other performance metrics, the models were validated in terms of their abilities to elucidate the general fire behaviors in the Pu Mat National Park and to predict future fires. Despite a few differences between the AUC values, the BN model with an AUC value of 0.96 was dominant over the other models in predicting future fires. The second best was the DT model (AUC = 0.94), followed by the NB (AUC = 0.939), and MLR (AUC = 0.937) models. Our robust analysis demonstrated that these models are sufficiently robust in response to the training and validation datasets change. Further, the results revealed that moderate to high levels of fire susceptibilities are associated with ~19% of the Pu Mat National Park where human activities are numerous. This study and the resultant susceptibility maps provide a basis for developing more efficient fire-fighting strategies and reorganizing policies in favor of sustainable management of forest resources.
We proposed an innovative hybrid intelligent approach, namely, the multiboost based naïve bayes trees (MBNBT) method for the spatial prediction of landslides in the Mu Cang Chai District of Yen Bai Province, Vietnam. The MBNBT, which is an ensemble of the multiboost (MB) and naïve bayes trees (NBT) base classifier, has rarely been applied for landslide susceptibility mapping around the world. For the modeling, we selected 248 landslide locations in the hilly terrain of the study area. Fifteen landslide conditioning factors were selected for the construction of the database based on the one-R attribute evaluation (ORAE) technique. Model validation was done using statistical metrics, namely, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). Performance of the hybrid model was evaluated and compared with popular soft computing benchmark models, namely, multiple perceptron neural network (MLPN), Support Vector Machines (SVM), and single NBT. Results indicated that the proposed MBNBT (AUC = 0.824) model outperformed the popular models, namely, the MLPN (AUC = 0.804), SVM (AUC = 0.804), and NBT (AUC = 0.800) models. Analysis of the model results also suggested that the MB meta classifier ensemble model could enhance the prediction power of the NBT model. Therefore, the MBNBT is a suitable method for the assessment of landslide susceptibility in landslide prone areas.
Recently, the spread of white spot disease in shrimps has a major impact on the aquaculture activity worldwide affecting the economy of the countries, especially South-East Asian countries like Vietnam. This deadly disease in shrimps is caused by the White Spot Syndrome Virus (WSSV). Researchers are trying to understand the spread and control of this disease by doing field and laboratory studies considering effect of environmental conditions on shrimps affected by WSSV. Generally, they have not considered spatial factors in their study. Therefore, in the present study, we have used spatial (distances to roads and factories) as well as physio-chemical factors of water: Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Salinity, NO3, P3O4 and pH, for developing WSSV susceptibility maps of the area using Decision Tree (DT)-based Machine Learning (ML) models namely Random Tree (RT), Extra Tree (ET), and J48. Model’s performance was evaluated using standard statistical measures including Area Under the Curve (AUC). The results indicated that ET model has the highest accuracy (AUC: 0.713) in predicting disease susceptibility in comparison to other two models (RT: 0.701 and J48: 0.641). The WSSV susceptibility maps developed by the ML technique, using DT (ET) method, will help decision makers in better planning and control of spatial spread of WSSV disease in shrimps.
Mangrove ecosystems play an important role in local livelihoods in coastal regions of tropical and subtropical countries. However, in recent years, urbanisation changed the income structure of residents near mangroves. Different landscapes provide different job opportunities; thus, analysis of regional landscape patterns is important for understanding income structures. In this study, surveys on the income structure and landscape patterns of the surrounding areas of three mangrove sites were conducted in the Hau and Hoang Mai River estuaries in Nghe An Province, North-Central Vietnam. The results reveal that both natural and socio-economic landscape components affected income structure. The major occupations in the study area were agriculture, including husbandry, sea fishing, and trading. Land morphology and river type were the major factors influencing the income from agriculture, while coastline morphology primarily affected income from sea fishing. Community-based trading was carried out in the study area; thus, the population inside each administrative unit was a significant factor increasing income, while the retail market size in an area had significant negative effects, potentially due to the increasing number of competitors. Our study aimed to evaluate mangrove ecosystem importance for local livelihoods in relation to landscape patterns, and the results contribute to urban planning based on the conservation and sustainable use of mangrove ecosystems.
Livelihoods and sustainable livelihoods play a very essential role in coastal fishing communities in Vietnam. In this paper, based on the sustainable livelihood model, we evaluate the current situation of coastal fishing livelihoods in the North central region of Vietnam with case study for Nghe An province and identifies favorable and unfavorable factors for accessing livelihood development resources by fishermen. For the research methods, secondary data from selected governmental agencies were gathered, and 200 fishermen were interviewed to collect primary data. The results of this research indicate that the income of fishermen is quite good but not stable due to their dependence on marine resources. Moreover, the types of livelihoods in the coastal zone of Nghe An province face certain difficulties with their specific occupational characteristics such as lack of capital, no stable job, reduced marine resources, weather dependence, lack of labor. Based on these, 3 groups of solutions and policies are proposed to promote sustainable livelihood development for coastal fishermen in Nghe An province, such as renewing fishing activities, promoting specialization and associating in maritime manufacturing and processing, as well as developing a variety of occupational groups associated with the exploitation of marine resources.
Mangrove ecosystems play an important role in local livelihoods in coastal regions of tropical and subtropical countries. However, in recent years urbanisation has changed the income structure of residents near mangroves. Different landscapes provide different job opportunities; thus, analysis of regional landscape patterns is important for understanding income structures. In this study, surveys on the income structure and landscape patterns of the surrounding areas of three mangrove sites were conducted in the Hau and Hoang Mai River estuaries in Nghe An Province, North-Central Vietnam. The results revealed that both natural and socio-economic landscape components affected income structure. The major occupations in the study area were agriculture, including husbandry, sea fishing, and trading. Land morphology and river type were the major factors influencing the income from agriculture, while coastline morphology primarily affected income from sea fishing. Community-based trading was carried out in the study area; thus, the population inside each administrative unit was a significant factor increasing income, while the retail market size in an area had significant negative effects, potentially due to the increasing number of competitors. Our study aimed to evaluate mangrove ecosystem importance for local livelihoods in relation to landscape patterns, and the results contribute to urban planning based on the conservation and sustainable use of mangrove ecosystems.