Observation‐based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives have addressed the impacts of climate change in parts of the EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering a wide range of timescales, phenomena and future pathways. Our assessment is based on a revised analysis of recent observations and projections and an extensive overview of the recent scientific literature on the causes and effects of regional climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions in the EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those of the European Union, hence contributing significantly to climate change. Over the past half‐century and especially during recent decades, the EMME has warmed significantly faster than other inhabited regions. At the same time, changes in the hydrological cycle have become evident. The observed recent temperature increase of about 0.45°C per decade is projected to continue, although strong global greenhouse gas emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition to projected changes in mean climate conditions, we call attention to extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include the strongly increasing severity and duration of heatwaves, droughts and dust storms, as well as torrential rain events that can trigger flash floods. Our review is complemented by a discussion of atmospheric pollution and land‐use change in the region, including urbanization, desertification and forest fires. Finally, we identify sectors that may be critically affected and formulate adaptation and research recommendations toward greater resilience of the EMME region to climate change.
This study investigates the atmospheric dynamics of the major dust storm that occurred in June 2020 over the Sahara and during which dust clouds associated with the highest‐on‐record aerosol optical depths were transported toward the America. An anomalous atmospheric circulation pattern in the mid‐latitudes, linked to a circumglobal wavetrain, resulted in the development of a subtropical high‐pressure system to the west of the Saharan heat low. This created a pressure dipole and generated anomalously strong northeasterlies over the Sahara, which caused continuous dust emissions over 4 days. Occurring along the northern fringes of the intertropical discontinuity, the dust was transported to higher altitudes (6 km) by the strong updraft in this region. This injected the dust at the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) altitudes and favored a rapid westward long‐range transport. The AEJ was also anomalously strong, being strengthened by the anticyclonic circulation associated with the anomalous high.
This study reports the occurrence of intense atmospheric rivers (ARs) during the two large Weddell Polynya events in November 1973 and September 2017 and investigates their role in the opening events via their enhancement of sea ice melt. Few days before the polynya openings, persistent ARs maintained a sustained positive total energy flux at the surface, resulting in sea ice thinning and a decline in sea ice concentration in the Maud Rise region. The ARs were associated with anomalously high amounts of total precipitable water and cloud liquid water content exceeding 3 SDs above the climatological mean. The above-normal integrated water vapor transport (IVT above the 99th climatological percentile), as well as opaque cloud bands, warmed the surface (+10°C in skin and air temperature) via substantial increases (+250 W m−2) in downward longwave radiation and advection of warm air masses, resulting in sea ice melt and inhibited nighttime refreezing.