Anthropogenic warming has led to an unprecedented year-round reduction in Arctic sea ice extent. This has far-reaching consequences for indigenous and local communities, polar ecosystems, and global climate, motivating the need for accurate seasonal sea ice forecasts. While physics-based dynamical models can successfully forecast sea ice concentration several weeks ahead, they struggle to outperform simple statistical benchmarks at longer lead times. We present a probabilistic, deep learning sea ice forecasting system, IceNet. The system has been trained on climate simulations and observational data to forecast the next 6 months of monthly-averaged sea ice concentration maps. We show that IceNet advances the range of accurate sea ice forecasts, outperforming a state-of-the-art dynamical model in seasonal forecasts of summer sea ice, particularly for extreme sea ice events. This step-change in sea ice forecasting ability brings us closer to conservation tools that mitigate risks associated with rapid sea ice loss.

When an individual purchases a home, they simultaneously purchase its structural features, its accessibility to work, and the neighborhood amenities. Some amenities, such as air quality, are measurable while others, such as the prestige or the visual impression of a neighborhood, are difficult to quantify. Despite the well-known impacts intangible housing features have on house prices, limited attention has been given to systematically quantifying these difficult to measure amenities. Two issues have led to this neglect. Not only do few quantitative methods exist that can measure the urban environment, but that the collection of such data is both costly and subjective. We show that street image and satellite image data can capture these urban qualities and improve the estimation of house prices. We propose a pipeline that uses a deep neural network model to automatically extract visual features from images to estimate house prices in London, UK. We make use of traditional housing features such as age, size, and accessibility as well as visual features from Google Street View images and Bing aerial images in estimating the house price model. We find encouraging results where learning to characterize the urban quality of a neighborhood improves house price prediction, even when generalizing to previously unseen London boroughs. We explore the use of non-linear vs. linear methods to fuse these cues with conventional models of house pricing, and show how the interpretability of linear models allows us to directly extract proxy variables for visual desirability of neighborhoods that are both of interest in their own right, and could be used as inputs to other econometric methods. This is particularly valuable as once the network has been trained with the training data, it can be applied elsewhere, allowing us to generate vivid dense maps of the visual appeal of London streets.

Quantifying aspects of urban design on a massive scale is crucial to help develop a deeper understanding of urban designs elements that contribute to the success of a public space. In this study, we further develop the Street-Frontage-Net (SFN), a convolutional neural network (CNN) that can successfully evaluate the quality of street frontage as either being active (frontage containing windows and doors) or blank (frontage containing walls, fences and garages). Small-scale studies have indicated that the more active the frontage, the livelier and safer a street feels. However, collecting the city-level data necessary to evaluate street frontage quality is costly. The SFN model uses a deep CNN to classify the frontage of a street. This study expands on the previous research via five experiments. We find robust results in classifying frontage quality for an out-of-sample test set that achieves an accuracy of up to 92.0%. We also find active frontages in a neighbourhood has a significant link with increased house prices. Lastly, we find that active frontage is associated with more scenicness compared to blank frontage. While further research is needed, the results indicate the great potential for using deep learning methods in geographic information extraction and urban design.

Traffic crashes present substantial challenges to human safety and socio-economic development in urban areas. Developing a reliable and responsible traffic crash prediction model is crucial to address growing public safety concerns and improve the safety of urban mobility systems. Traditional methods face limitations at fine spatiotemporal scales due to the sporadic nature of high-risk crashes and the predominance of non-crash characteristics. Furthermore, while most current models show promising occurrence prediction, they overlook the uncertainties arising from the inherent nature of crashes, and then fail to adequately map the hierarchical ranking of crash risk values for more precise insights. To address these issues, we introduce the Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Tweedie Graph Neural Networks (STZITD-GNN), the first uncertainty-aware probabilistic graph deep learning model in road-level daily-basis traffic crash prediction for multi-steps. Our model combines the interpretability of the statistical Tweedie family with the predictive power of graph neural networks, excelling in predicting a comprehensive range of crash risks. The decoder employs a compound Tweedie model, handling the non-Gaussian distribution inherent in crash data, with a zero-inflated component for accurately identifying non-crash cases and low-risk roads. The model accurately predicts and differentiates between high-risk, low-risk, and no-risk scenarios, providing a holistic view of road safety that accounts for the full spectrum of probability and severity of crashes. Empirical tests using real-world traffic data from London, UK, demonstrate that the STZITD-GNN surpasses other baseline models across multiple benchmarks, including a reduction in regression error of up to 34.60% in point estimation metrics and an improvement of above 47% in interval-based uncertainty metrics.

Accessibility is frequently used for measuring location in housing studies, but specifications of the measures differ greatly and its implications are hardly discussed. This paper sets out to systematically review accessibility measures that are used in hedonic price models (HPM), a method for estimating the implicit value of housing characteristics, such as location. From a systematic database search of peer-reviewed journal articles, we examined 54 articles that applies accessibility measures in hedonic price models that are based on three aspects of measure specification: type, impedance, and opportunities. We find that there are clear couplings between different impedances, types, and opportunities. We also noticed a tendency towards less advanced measurements, such as Euclidean distance and zonal measures, being used. Furthermore, we argue that these basic measures have a weaker connection to consumer perception, which is fundamental to the hedonic price approach. We also observed a lack of consideration to how this coupling between type, impedance, and opportunity could possibly affect the results. Theoretically, we can already conclude that some dominating impedances poorly relate to the fundamental theories of HPM, but this also points to the need for further research to empirically test the influence of the type-impedance-opportunity specification on the price estimates in HPM.