Objective The objectives of this study were to develop a coronary heart disease (CHD) risk model among the Korean Heart Study (KHS) population and compare it with the Framingham CHD risk score. Design A prospective cohort study within a national insurance system. Setting 18 health promotion centres nationwide between 1996 and 2001 in Korea. Participants 268 315 Koreans between the ages of 30 and 74 years without CHD at baseline. Outcome measure Non-fatal or fatal CHD events between 1997 and 2011. During an 11.6-year median follow-up, 2596 CHD events (1903 non-fatal and 693 fatal) occurred in the cohort. The optimal CHD model was created by adding high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol and triglycerides to the basic CHD model, evaluating using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and continuous net reclassification index (NRI). Results The optimal CHD models for men and women included HDL-cholesterol (NRI=0.284) and triglycerides (NRI=0.207) from the basic CHD model, respectively. The discrimination using the CHD model in the Korean cohort was high: the areas under ROC were 0.764 (95% CI 0.752 to 0.774) for men and 0.815 (95% CI 0.795 to 0.835) for women. The Framingham risk function predicted 3–6 times as many CHD events than observed. Recalibration of the Framingham function using the mean values of risk factors and mean CHD incidence rates of the KHS cohort substantially improved the performance of the Framingham functions in the KHS cohort. Conclusions The present study provides the first evidence that the Framingham risk function overestimates the risk of CHD in the Korean population where CHD incidence is low. The Korean CHD risk model is well-calculated alternations which can be used to predict an individual's risk of CHD and provides a useful guide to identify the groups at high risk for CHD among Koreans.

Kim KC, et al. Yonsei Med J. 2010 Nov;51(6):857-863. http://dx.doi.org/10.3349/ymj.2010.51.6.857

OBJECTIVE: Although diabetes increases the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality, the dose-response relationship between fasting glucose levels below those diagnostic of diabetes with cardiovascular events has not been well characterized. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A prospective cohort study of more than one million Koreans was conducted with a mean follow-up of 16 years. A total of 1,197,384 Korean adults with no specific medical conditions diagnosed were classified by baseline fasting serum glucose level. Associations of fasting glucose level with CVD incidence and mortality, stroke incidence and mortality, and all-cause mortality were analyzed using multivariate proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: The relationships between fasting glucose levels and CVD risks generally followed J-shape curves, with lowest risk in the glucose range of 85–99 mg/dL. As fasting glucose levels increased to >100 mg/dL, risks for CVD, ischemic heart disease, myocardial infarction, and thrombotic stroke progressively increased, but risk for hemorrhagic stroke did not. Fasting glucose levels <70 mg/dL were associated with increased risk of all stroke (hazard ratio 1.06, 95% CI 1.01–1.11) in men and (hazard ratio 1.11, 1.05–1.17) in women. CONCLUSIONS: Both low glucose level and impaired fasting glucose should be considered as predictors of risk for stroke and coronary heart disease. The fasting glucose level associated with the lowest cardiovascular risk may be in a narrow range.

Background: Increased fasting plasma glucose (FPG), which includes impaired fasting glucose (IFG), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), and diabetes, is a risk factor for arterial stiffness. While IFG is widely accepted as a cardiovascular risk factor, recent studies have argued that subjects with high-normal glucose level were characterized by a high incidence of cardiovascular disease. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between FPG and arterial stiffness in non-diabetic healthy subjects.Methods: We recruited 697 subjects who visited the health promotion center of a university hospital from May 2007 to August 2008. Age, sex, body mass index (BMI), resting heart rate, smoking habits, alcohol intake, exercise, blood pressure, medical history, FPG, lipid profile, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and Brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (ba-PWV) were measured. We performed correlation and multiple linear regression analyses to divide the research subjects into quartiles: Q1(n = 172), 65 mg/dL ≤FPG < 84 mg/dL; Q2(n = 188), 84 mg/dL ≤FPG < 91 mg/dl; Q3(n = 199), 91 mg/dL ≤FPG < 100 mg/dL; Q4(n = 138), 100 mg/dL ≤FPG < 126 mg/dL.Results: FPG has an independent, positive association with ba-PWV in non-diabetic subjects after correcting for confounding variables, including age, sex, BMI, blood pressure, resting heart rate, hs-CRP, lipid profile, and behavioral habits. The mean ba-PWV of the high-normal glucose group (Q3, 1384 cm/s) was higher than that of the low-normal glucose group (1303 ± 196 cm/s vs.1328 ± 167 cm/s, P < 0.05). The mean ba-PWV value in the IFG group (1469 ± 220 cm/s) was higher than that in the normoglycemic group (P < 0.05, respectively).Conclusions: An increase in FPG, even within the normal range, was associated with aggravated arterial stiffness. Further research is needed to determine the glycemic target value for the prevention of arterial stiffness in clinical and public health settings.