A wildfire forecasting tool capable of estimating the fire perimeter position sufficiently in advance of the actual fire arrival will assist firefighting operations and optimise available resources. However, owing to limited knowledge of fire event characteristics (e.g. fuel distribution and characteristics, weather variability) and the short time available to deliver a forecast, most of the current models only provide a rough approximation of the forthcoming fire positions and dynamics. The problem can be tackled by coupling data assimilation and inverse modelling techniques. We present an inverse modelling-based algorithm that uses infrared airborne images to forecast short-term wildfire dynamics with a positive lead time. The algorithm is applied to two real-scale mallee-heath shrubland fire experiments, of 9 and 25 ha, successfully forecasting the fire perimeter shape and position in the short term. Forecast dependency on the assimilation windows is explored to prepare the system to meet real scenario constraints. It is envisaged the system will be applied at larger time and space scales.

Measuring wildland fire behavior is essential for fire science and fire management. Aerial thermal infrared (TIR) imaging provides outstanding opportunities to acquire such information remotely. Variables such as fire rate of spread (ROS), fire radiative power (FRP), and fireline intensity may be measured explicitly both in time and space, providing the necessary data to study the response of fire behavior to weather, vegetation, topography, and firefighting efforts. However, raw TIR imagery acquired by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) requires stabilization and georeferencing before any other processing can be performed. Aerial video usually suffers from instabilities produced by sensor movement. This problem is especially acute near an active wildfire due to fire-generated turbulence. Furthermore, the nature of fire TIR video presents some specific challenges that hinder robust interframe registration. Therefore, this article presents a software-based video stabilization algorithm specifically designed for TIR imagery of forest fires. After a comparative analysis of existing image registration algorithms, the KAZE feature-matching method was selected and accompanied by pre- and postprocessing modules. These included foreground histogram equalization and a multireference framework designed to increase the algorithm's robustness in the presence of missing or faulty frames. The performance of the proposed algorithm was validated in a total of nine video sequences acquired during field fire experiments. The proposed algorithm yielded a registration accuracy between 10 and 1000× higher than other tested methods, returned 10× more meaningful feature matches, and proved robust in the presence of faulty video frames. The ability to automatically cancel camera movement for every frame in a video sequence solves a key limitation in data processing pipelines and opens the door to a number of systematic fire behavior experimental analyses. Moreover, a completely automated process supports the development of decision support tools that can operate in real time during an emergency.

Scarcity in wildland fire progression data as well as considerable uncertainties in forecasts demand improved methods to monitor fire spread in real time. However, there exists at present no scalable solution to acquire consistent information about active forest fires that is both spatially and temporally explicit. To overcome this limitation, we propose a statistical downscaling scheme based on deep learning that leverages multi-source Remote Sensing (RS) data. Our system relies on a U-Net Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to downscale Geostationary (GEO) satellite multispectral imagery and continuously monitor active fire progression with a spatial resolution similar to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) sensors. In order to achieve this, the model trains on LEO RS products, land use information, vegetation properties, and terrain data. The practical implementation has been optimized to use cloud compute clusters, software containers and multi-step parallel pipelines in order to facilitate real time operational deployment. The performance of the model was validated in five wildfires selected from among the most destructive that occurred in California in 2017 and 2018. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in monitoring fire progression with high spatiotemporal resolution, which can be instrumental for decision support during the first hours of wildfires that may quickly become large and dangerous. Additionally, the proposed methodology can be leveraged to collect detailed quantitative data about real-scale wildfire behaviour, thus supporting the development and validation of fire spread models.

Aerial Thermal Infrared (TIR) imagery has demonstrated tremendous potential to monitor active forest fires and acquire detailed information about fire behavior. However, aerial video is usually unstable and requires inter-frame registration before further processing. Measurement of image misalignment is an essential operation for video stabilization. Misalignment can usually be estimated through image similarity, although image similarity metrics are also sensitive to other factors such as changes in the scene and lighting conditions. Therefore, this article presents a thorough analysis of image similarity measurement techniques useful for inter-frame registration in wildfire thermal video. Image similarity metrics most commonly and successfully employed in other fields were surveyed, adapted, benchmarked and compared. We investigated their response to different camera movement components as well as recording frequency and natural variations in fire, background and ambient conditions. The study was conducted in real video from six fire experimental scenarios, ranging from laboratory tests to large-scale controlled burns. Both Global and Local Sensitivity Analyses (GSA and LSA, respectively) were performed using state-of-the-art techniques. Based on the obtained results, two different similarity metrics are proposed to satisfy two different needs. A normalized version of Mutual Information is recommended as cost function during registration, whereas 2D correlation performed the best as quality control metric after registration. These results provide a sound basis for image alignment measurement and open the door to further developments in image registration, motion estimation and video stabilization for aerial monitoring of active wildland fires.