The paper looks at two metrics of flood events: flood severity (related to flood frequency) and flood magnitude (related to flood severity, as above, but also to flood duration and affected area). A time series of flood information, over 25 years, collected by the Dartmouth Flood Observatory, is used to describe the spatio-temporal variability of large floods in Europe. Direct factors responsible for changes in flood severity and magnitude over time may be related to both climate and ground surface changes. Indirect links between flood severity/magnitude and socio-economic indices occur via flood risk reduction activities, land-use change and land-cover change. The present analysis shows an increasing trend during the 25-year period in the number of reported floods exceeding severity and magnitude thresholds. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Citation Kundzewicz, Z.W., Pińskwar, I., and Brakenridge, G.R., 2013. Large floods in Europe, 1985–2009. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–7.
Results of a study on change detection in hydrological time series of annual maximum river flow are presented. Out of more than a thousand long time series made available by the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) in Koblenz, Germany, a worldwide data set consisting of 195 long series of daily mean flow records was selected, based on such criteria as length of series, currency, lack of gaps and missing values, adequate geographical distribution, and priority to smaller catchments. The analysis of annual maximum flows does not support the hypothesis of ubiquitous growth of high flows. Although 27 cases of strong, statistically significant increase were identified by the Mann-Kendall test, there are 31 decreases as well, and most (137) time series do not show any significant changes (at the 10% level). Caution is advised in interpreting these results as flooding is a complex phenomenon, caused by a number of factors that can be associated with local, regional, and hemispheric climatic processes. Moreo...
Despite costly flood risk reduction efforts, material damage and death toll caused by river floods continue to be high in Europe. In the present review paper, after outlining a process-based perspective, we examine observed and projected changes in flood hazard. Spatial and temporal variability of large floods is analyzed, based on a time series of flood information, collected by the Dartmouth Flood Observatory in 1985–2016. Model-based projections of future flood hazard are critically reviewed. It is difficult to disentangle the climatic change component from strong natural variability and direct human impacts. The climate change impact on flood hazard is complex and depends on the river flood generation mechanism. It has not been possible to detect ubiquitous changes in flood characteristics in observation records in Europe, so far. However, we found an increasing tendency in the number of floods with large magnitude and severity, even if year-to-year variability is strong. There is a considerable spread of river flood hazard projections in Europe among studies, carried out under different assumptions. Therefore, caution must be exerted by practitioners in charge of climate change adaptation, flood risk reduction, risk insurance, and water resources management when accommodating information on flood hazard projections, under considerable uncertainty.