Net primary productivity (NPP) is the total amount of organic matter fixed by plants from the atmosphere through photosynthesis and is susceptible to the influences of climate change and human activities. In this study, we employed actual NPP (ANPP), potential NPP (PNPP), and human activity-induced NPP (HNPP) based on the Hurst exponent and statistical analysis to analyze the characteristics of vegetation productivity dynamics and to evaluate the effects of climate and human factors on vegetation productivity in Northeast China (NEC). The increasing trends in ANPP, PNPP, and HNPP accounted for 81.62%, 94.90%, and 89.63% of the total area, respectively, and ANPP in 68.64% of the total area will continue to increase in the future. Climate change played a leading role in vegetation productivity dynamics, which promoted an increase in ANPP in 71.55% of the area, and precipitation was the key climate factor affecting ANPP. The aggravation of human activities, such as increased livestock numbers and intensified agricultural activities, resulted in a decrease in ANPP in the western grasslands, northern Greater Khingan Mountains, and eastern Songnen Plain. In particular, human activities led to a decrease in ANPP in 53.84% of deciduous needleleaf forests. The impact of climate change and human activities varied significantly under different topography, and the percentage of the ANPP increase due to climate change decreased from 71.13% to 53.9% from plains to urgent slopes; however, the percentage of ANPP increase due to human activities increased from 3.44% to 21.74%, and the effect of human activities on the increase of ANPP was more obvious with increasing slope. At different altitudes, the difference in the effect of these two factors was not significant. The results are significant for understanding the factors influencing the vegetation productivity dynamics in NEC and can provide a reference for governments to implement projects to improve the ecosystem.

Mapping flash flood susceptibility is effective for mitigating the negative impacts of flash floods. However, a variety of conditioning factors have been used to generate susceptibility maps in various studies. In this study, we proposed combining logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF) models with embedded feature selection (EFS) to filter specific feature sets for the two models and map flash flood susceptibility in the mainstream basin of the Songhua River. According to the EFS results, the optimized feature sets included 32 and 28 features for the LR and RF models, respectively, and the composition of the two optimal feature sets was similar and distinct. Overall, the relevant vegetation cover and river features exhibit relatively high effects overall for flash floods in the study area. The LR and RF models provided accurate and reliable flash flood susceptibility maps (FFSMs). The RF model (accuracy = 0.8834, area under the curve (AUC) = 0.9486) provided a better prediction capacity than the LR model (accuracy = 0.8634, AUC = 0.9277). Flash flood-prone areas are mainly distributed in the south and southwest and areas close to rivers. The results obtained in this study is useful for flash flood prevention and control projects.

With climate change, significant fluctuations in wildfires have been observed on the Mongolian Plateau. The ability to predict the distribution of wildfires in the context of climate change plays a critical role in wildfire management and ecosystem maintenance. In this paper, Ripley’s K function and a Random Forest (RF) model were applied to analyse the spatial patterns and main influencing factors affecting the occurrence of wildfire on the Mongolian Plateau. The results showed that the wildfires were mainly clustered in space due to the combination of influencing factors. The distance scale is less than 1/2 of the length of the Mongolian Plateau; that is, it does not experience boundary effects in the study area and it meets the requirements of Ripley’s K function. Among the driving factors, the fraction of vegetation coverage (FVC), land use degree (La), elevation, precipitation (pre), wet day frequency (wet), and maximum temperature (tmx) had the greatest influences, while the aspect had the lowest influence. The likelihood of fire was mainly concentrated in the northern, eastern, and southern parts of the Mongolian Plateau and in the border area between the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (Inner Mongolia) and Mongolian People’s Republic (Mongolia), and wildfires did not occur or occurred less frequently in the hinterland area. The fitting results of the RF model showed a prediction accuracy exceeding 90%, which indicates that the model has a high ability to predict wildfire occurrences on the Mongolian Plateau. This study can provide a reference for predictions and decision-making related to wildfires on the Mongolian Plateau.

Vegetation phenology is the most intuitive and sensitive biological indicator of environmental conditions, and the start of the season (SOS) can reflect the rapid response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. At present, the model based on mean temperature neglects the role of the daytime maximum temperature (TMAX) and the nighttime minimum temperature (TMIN) in providing temperature accumulation and cold conditions at leaf onset. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of spring phenology for the boreal forest from 2001 to 2017 based on the moderate-resolution imaging spectro-radiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data (MOD13A2) and investigated the asymmetric effects of daytime and nighttime warming on the boreal forest spring phenology during TMAX and TMIN preseason by partial correlation analysis. The results showed that the spring phenology was delayed with increasing latitude of the boreal forest. Approximately 91.37% of the region showed an advancing trend during the study period, with an average advancement rate of 3.38 ± 0.08 days/decade, and the change rates of different land cover types differed, especially in open shrubland. The length of the TMIN preseason was longer than that of the TMAX preseason and diurnal temperatures showed an asymmetrical increase during different preseasons. The daytime and nighttime warming effects on the boreal forest are asymmetrical. The TMAX has a greater impact on the vegetation spring phenology than TMIN as a whole and the effect also has seasonal differences; the TMAX mainly affects the SOS in spring, while TMIN has a greater impact in winter. The asymmetric effects of daytime and nighttime warming on the SOS in the boreal forest were highlighted in this study, and the results suggest that diurnal temperatures should be added to the forest terrestrial ecosystem model.

Vegetation phenology and photosynthetic primary production have changed simultaneously over the past three decades, thus impacting the velocity of vegetation greenup (Vgreenup) and withering (Vwithering). Although climate warming reduces the frequency of frost events, vegetation is exposed more frequently to frost due to the extension of the growing season. Currently, little is known about the effect of frost during the growing season on Vgreenup and Vwithering. This study analyzed spatiotemporal variations in Vgreenup and Vwithering in Northeast China between 1982 to 2015 using Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GIMMS 3g NDVI) data. Frost days and frost intensity were selected as indicators to investigate the influence of frost during the growing season on Vgreenup and Vwithering, respectively. Increased frost days during the growing season slowed Vgreenup and Vwithering. The number of frost days had a greater impact on Vwithering compared to Vgreenup. In addition, Vgreenup and Vwithering of forests were more vulnerable to frost days, while frost days had a lesser effect on grasslands. In contrast to frost days, frost intensity, which generally decreased during the growing season, accelerated Vgreenup and Vwithering for all land cover types. Changes in frost intensity had less of an impact on forests, whereas the leaf structure of grasslands is relatively simple and thus more vulnerable to frost intensity. The effects of frost during the growing season on Vgreenup and Vwithering in Northeast China were highlighted in this study, and the results provide a useful reference for understanding local vegetation responses to global climate change.

Wildfires are one of the important disturbance factors in natural ecosystems and occur frequently around the world. Detailed research on the impact of wildfires is crucial not only for the development of livestock husbandry but also for the sustainable use of natural resources. In this study, based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) burned area product MC464A1 and site snow depth measurements, the kernel density estimation method (KDE), unary linear regression analysis, Sen + Mann-Kendall trend analysis, correlation analysis, and R/S analysis were used to evaluate the relationship between snow and spring wildfires (SWFs) in Hulunbuir. Our results indicated that SWFs decreased during the period of 2001–2018, were mainly distributed in the eastern portion of the study area, and that the highest SWF density was 7 events/km². In contrast, the maximum snow depth increased during the period of 2001–2018 and the snow depth was deeper in the middle but shallower in the east and west. The SWFs and snow depth have significant negative correlations over space and time. The snow depth mainly affects the occurrence of SWFs indirectly by affecting the land surface temperature (LST) and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) in spring. The snow depth was positively correlated with the LSWI in most of Hulunbuir and strongly negatively correlated with the LST, and this correlation was stronger in the eastern and western regions of Hulunbuir. The results of the Hurst exponent indicated that in the future, the snow depth trend will be opposite that of the current state, meaning that the trend of decreasing snow depth will increase dramatically in most of the study area, and SWFs may become more prominent. According to the validation results, the Hurst exponent is a reliable method for predicting the snow depth tendency. This research can be based on the snow conditions of the previous year to identify areas where fires are most likely to occur, enabling an improved and more targeted preparation for spring fire prevention. Additionally, the present study expands the theory and methods of wildfire occurrence research and promotes research on disasters and disaster chains.