Changes in moisture as represented by P − E (precipitation − evapotranspiration) and the possible causes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during 1979–2011 are examined based on the Global Land Data Assimilation Systems (GLDAS) ensemble mean runoff and reanalyses. It is found that the TP is getting wetter as a whole but with large spatial variations. The climatologically humid southeastern TP is getting drier while the vast arid and semiarid northwestern TP is getting wetter. The Clausius–Clapeyron relation cannot be used to explain the changes in P − E over the TP. Through decomposing the changes in P − E into three major components—dynamic, thermodynamic, and transient eddy components—it is noted that the dynamic component plays a key role in the changes of P − E over the TP. The thermodynamic component contributes positively over the southern and central TP whereas the transient eddy component tends to reinforce (offset) the dynamic component over the southern and parts of the northern TP (central TP). Seasonally, the dynamic component contributes substantially to changes in P − E during the wet season, with small contributions from the thermodynamic and transient eddy components. Further analyses reveal the poleward shift of the East Asian westerly jet stream by 0.7° and poleward moisture transport as well as the intensification of the summer monsoon circulation due to global warming, which are shown to be responsible for the general wetting trend over the TP. It is further demonstrated that changes in local circulations that occur due to the differential heating of the TP and its surroundings are responsible for the spatially varying changes in moisture over the TP.

To develop a finescale dataset for the purpose of analyzing historical climatic change over the Tibet Plateau (TP), a high-resolution regional climate simulation for 1979–2011 was conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model driven by the ERA-Interim (ERA-Int). This work evaluates the high-resolution (30 km) WRF simulation in terms of annual variation, spatial structure, and 33-yr temporal trends of surface air temperature (Tair) and precipitation (Prec) over the TP, with reference to station observations. Another focus is on the examination of the height–temperature relationship. Inheriting from its forcing, the WRF simulation presents an apparent cold bias in the TP. The cold bias is largely reduced by a lapse rate correction of the simulated surface air temperature with help of the station and model elevations. ERA-Int presents the same sign of Tair and Prec trends as the observations, but with smaller magnitude, especially in the dry season. Compared to its forcing, the WRF simulation improves the simulation of the annual cycles and temporal trends of Tair and Prec in the wet season. In the dry season, however, there is hardly any improvement. The observed Tair presents a downward linear trend in the lapse rate. This feature is examined in the WRF simulation in comparison to ERA-Int. The WRF simulation captures the observed lapse rate and its temporal trend better than ERA-Int. The decreasing lapse rate over time confirms that Tair change in the TP is elevation dependent.

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) region experiences strong land‐atmosphere interactions, and as an elevated heating source, significantly influences the formation of the Asian monsoon. Those interactions are not well represented in current land‐surface models (LSMs), partly due to difficulties in representing heterogeneities in soil structures in LSM. Simulations using the Noah with multiparameterization options (Noah‐MP) LSM are employed to assess the relative importance of parameterizing vertical soil heterogeneity, organic matter, and soil rhizosphere and their impacts on seasonal evolution of soil temperature, soil moisture, and surface energy and water budgets at the sparsely vegetated Amdo site located in central TP. The LSM spin‐up time at the central TP depends on the complexity of the model physics, ranging from 4 years with simplest soil physics to 30 years with the addition of organic matter and spare to dense rhizosphere parameterization in Noah‐MP. Representing layered soil texture and organic matter does not improve low biases in topsoil moisture. Reducing the saturated conductivity from the mucilage in the rhizosphere produces better results. Surface sensible and latent heat fluxes are better simulated in the monsoon season as well. Adding layered soil texture and organic matter in Noah‐MP retard the thawing in deep soil layers, and the rhizosphere effect delays thawing even more in the transient season. Uncertainties in soil initialization significantly affect deep‐soil temperature and moisture, but uncertainties in atmospheric forcing conditions mainly affect topsoil variables and consequently the surface energy fluxes. Differing land‐surface physics cause 36% uncertainty in the accumulated evapotranspiration and subsurface runoff.

Available observations below 5000 m altitude suggest that some mountain regions are undergoing accelerated elevation-dependent warming (EDW) in response to global or regional climate change. We address the question of whether EDW exists above 5000 m altitude, which is the elevation of much of the mountainous portion of the Tibetan Plateau, and headwaters to most of Asia’s major rivers. We analyzed four data sources: in situ observations, gridded observations, ERA-Interim reanalysis, and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model output over the portion of the Tibetan Plateau above 5000 m elevation. We also analyzed the relative contributions of changes in water vapor, diabatic heating, snow, and surface energy changes to EDW in WRF simulations and ERA-Interim. Gridded observations over the Tibetan Plateau show EDW below 5000 m, in apparent consistency with studies elsewhere. However, the gridded observations above 5000 m are essentially entirely extrapolated from lower elevations. Despite differences in details, neither ERA-Interim nor WRF indicate EDW above 5000 m. The WRF simulation produces more realistic temperature profiles at elevations where observations exist, which are also consistent with the simulated profiles of factors contributing to vertical heating. Furthermore, WRF projects no EDW above 5000 m in future climate projections (with CCSM4 boundary conditions) for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 global emission scenarios. Therefore, we conclude that EDW above 5000 m over the Tibetan Plateau is not occurring, nor is it likely to occur in future decades.