Wind speed interval prediction plays an important role in wind power generation. In this paper, a new interval construction model based on error prediction is proposed. The variational mode decomposition is used to decompose the complex wind speed time series into simplified modes. Two types of GRU models are built for wind speed prediction and error prediction respectively. Prediction error for each mode is given a weight and accumulated to obtain the width of the prediction interval. The particle swarm optimization algorithm is applied to search for the optimal weights of the prediction errors. Experiments considering eight cases from two wind fields are conducted by using methods of interval construction in the literature for comparison with the proposed model. The result shows that the proposed model can obtain prediction intervals with higher quality.

In this work, the interfacial thermal transport across silicene and various substrates, i.e., crystalline silicon (c-Si), amorphous silicon (a-Si), crystalline silica (c-SiO₂) and amorphous silica (a-SiO₂) are explored by classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. A transient pulsed heating technique is applied in this work to characterize the interfacial thermal resistance in all hybrid systems. It is reported that the interfacial thermal resistances between silicene and all substrates decrease nearly 40% with temperature from 100 K to 400 K, which is due to the enhanced phonon couplings from the anharmonicity effect. Analysis of phonon power spectra of all systems is performed to interpret simulation results. Contradictory to the traditional thought that amorphous structures tend to have poor thermal transport capabilities due to the disordered atomic configurations, it is calculated that amorphous silicon and silica substrates facilitate the interfacial thermal transport compared with their crystalline structures. Besides, the coupling effect from substrates can improve the interface thermal transport up to 43.5% for coupling strengths χ from 1.0 to 2.0. Our results provide fundamental knowledge and rational guidelines for the design and development of the next-generation silicene-based nanoelectronics and thermal interface materials.

Deterioration trend prediction of hydropower units helps to detect abnormal conditions of hydropower units and can prevent early failures. The reliability and accuracy of the prediction results are crucial to ensure the safe operation of the units and promote the stable operation of the power system. In this paper, the long short-term neural network (LSTM) is introduced, a comprehensive deterioration index (CDI) trend prediction model based on the time–frequency domain is proposed, and the prediction accuracy of the situation trend of hydropower units is improved. Firstly, the time–domain health model (THM) is constructed with back-propagation neural network (BPNN) and condition parameters of active power, guide vane opening and blade opening and the time–domain indicators. Subsequently, a frequency-domain health model (FHM) is established based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), approximate entropy (ApEn), and k-means clustering algorithm. Later, the time–domain degradation index (TDI) is developed according to THM, the frequency-domain degradation index (FDI) is constructed according to FHM, and the CDI is calculated as a weighted sum by TDI and FDI. Finally, the prediction model of LSTM is proposed based on the CDI to achieve degradation trend prediction. In order to validate the effectiveness of the CDI and the accuracy of the prediction model, the vibration waveform dataset of a hydropower plant in China is taken as a case study and compared with four different prediction models. The results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms other comparison models in terms of predicting accuracy and stability.

Parameter estimation is an important part in the modeling of a hydro-turbine regulation system (HTRS), and the results determine the final accuracy of a model. A hydro-turbine is normally a non-minimum phase system with strong nonlinearity and time-varying parameters. For the parameter estimation of such a nonlinear system, heuristic algorithms are more advantageous than traditional mathematical methods. However, most heuristics based algorithms and their improved versions are not adaptive, which means that the appropriate parameters of an algorithm need to be manually found to keep the algorithm performing optimally in solving similar problems. To solve this problem, an adaptive fuzzy particle swarm optimization (AFPSO) algorithm that dynamically tunes the parameters according to model error is proposed and applied to the parameter estimation of the HTRS. The simulation studies show that the proposed AFPSO contributes to lower model error and higher identification accuracy compared with some traditional heuristic algorithms. Importantly, it avoids a possible deterioration in the performance of an algorithm caused by inappropriate parameter selection.

Fault diagnosis plays an essential role in maintaining the safe and stable operation of hydroelectric units. In this paper, an intelligent fault diagnosis method based on radar maps and improved GoogleNet by depthwise separate convolution (DSC) is proposed to address the problems of low recognition accuracy and weak computing speed of fault diagnosis models in the field of hydroelectric unit fault diagnosis at present. Firstly, a one-dimensional signal sequence is obtained and denoised. Secondly, five time-domain features are extracted and radar maps are plotted. Then, an improved GoogleNet intelligent fault diagnosis model based on DSC (DSC-GoogLeNet) is constructed for training and validation. To assess the effectiveness of the proposed model, two case studies are conducted using the simulated dataset of the rotor experimental bench and the actual measured dataset of a domestic hydroelectric power plant. The results demonstrate that the average recognition accuracy of the fault diagnosis method proposed in this paper is as high as 99.04% on the simulated dataset, and even though the recognition accuracy decreases on the actually measurement dataset, it still has a recognition rate of 98.79%. The fault diagnosis performance is better than the other types of comparison models. The results demonstrate that the proposed fault diagnosis method holds significant engineering applicability in the domain of safe operation of hydroelectric units. It effectively addresses the existing challenges in fault diagnosis within this field with accuracy, stability, and efficiency.